Power to the People
We seem to be living in extraordinary times. Never before in history have so many people lived under democracy or been so tantalizingly close to realizing democratic dreams. Despite some nations notably sliding backwards against this trend, such as Russia and Venezuela, it certainly seems inexorable. As Dan Henninger writes in today’s Wall Street Journal, the yearning to be free is universal and not connected to any race, ethnicity or creed. Indeed, as President Bush so eloquently puts it, freedom is not America’s gift to the world, but God’s gift to mankind. Yet, this tidal wave of liberty is not only washing over nations that have not experienced it before, but also the nation that is liberty’s beacon for all the world – the City Upon a Hill – the United States of America. For as Brian Wesbury writes, also in today’s Wall Street Journal, America is not just consolidating the gains of the Reagan Revolution but extending them through the second coming of Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush.
It’s Official: Bush Wins Iowa
Just in case you hadn’t heard yet…
President Bush won Iowa on Friday, finishing the 2004 campaign with wins in all three of the states that were still up in the air on election night.
The last result came in the state that started the election year with its party caucuses back in January. Although Democratic Sen. John Kerry had already conceded the race for the White House on Wednesday, the counting of absentee ballots continued in Iowa, which had been too close to call.
By Friday, Bush had 745,980 votes and Kerry had 732,764 with the number of outstanding ballots too few to change the outcome.
This finished the race once and for all, with Bush taking 286 electoral votes, and Kerry 252.
It’s also worth nothing that the last Republican to carry Iowa was Ronald Reagan in 1984.
UPDATE: Iowa gives President Bush a winning margin of over 4.6 millon votes and a winning percentage of 52% to 47%
Will Bush Say “Aloha” To Four Electoral Votes?
One of the most amazing things this campaign season has been the emergence of new swing/battlegrounds states… States once solidly blue have become purple, leading the Bush camp their way, and the Kerry camp right behind to defend it.
Hawaii became on of those battleground states this season, when a couple polls indicated Bush with a small lead – while statistically a tie, this became a problem for Kerry with a race expected to be tight:
Traditionally Democratic Hawaii emerged suddenly in the final weeks of the presidential campaign as a battleground state that could go to either President Bush or Sen. John Kerry today, prompting both parties to pay it some last-minute attention.
Two recent polls in the Aloha State showed the candidates statistically tied there. As a result, both parties began running last-minute ads and sent some top emissaries there to rally the vote.
Vice President Dick Cheney campaigned at a rally in Honolulu on Sunday ó an indication the Bush campaign believes the state’s four electoral votes could play a pivotal role.
Can the Aloha state go to Bush? We’ll find out soon, but we’re cautiously optimistic:
Greg Gaydos, associate professor of political science at Hawaii Pacific University, said national security is playing a big role. He noted that while those who opposed the war in Iraq are voting overwhelmingly for Mr. Kerry and those who support it are voting overwhelmingly for Mr. Bush, those who aren’t sure how they feel about it are leaning towards Mr. Bush.
“They’re giving President Bush the benefit of the doubt. They see him as the stronger leader on this,” he said.
Hawaii has voted just twice since statehood in 1959 for a Republican presidential candidate ó Richard Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan in 1984, when each man was running for his second term. Mr. Gore won the state by more than 18 percentage points in 2000.
No matter how you slice it, the fact that blue states are becoming more red shows that Bush has some strong support – even from groups that may not have supported a Republican candidate. This has to concern the Kerry camp.
Blogs For Bush Electoral Vote Prediction
I’m not one to make predictions… I am not a number cruncher, or skills on statistics, trends, or anything of that sort, but nevertheless people seem to regularly ask me about what I think about the state of the election.
With that in mind, I thought perhaps everyone would want to see a prediction of tomorrow election results. So, I asked the Blogs For Bush team to give me their predictions, and I averaged them out to come up with The Blogs For Bush Electoral Vote Prediction. The calculated average was matched to the prediction that most closely resembled.
The Official Blogs For Bush final prediction for the election gives Bush a victory at 300 electoral votes to Kerry’s 238. Kerry wins all of New England, as well as Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Bush will take Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Florida according to our prediction. Hawaii goes to Bush as well. Everyone predicted a Bush victory.
Note: Map derived from NYT Electoral Vote Calculator Page
Hello, my name is Matt Margolis, the founder of Blogs For Bush, one of the most successful and popular blogs in 2004, during the presidential campaign.
Blogs For Bush was launched in November 2003 and ended in November 2007. This site is no longer active, but is being kept online as a reference for those interested in the 2004 campaign, and for bloggers wishing to start their own grassroots blog.