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November 07, 2007
Will Obama Surprise in Iowa?

I was talking to the Mrs yesterday (I do that from time to time, ya know?) and she pointed something out to me - Obama is everywhere on daytime TV. The Mrs watches, when she can, Oprah and Ellen and all of the daytime programming so tailor-made for adult, female viewers. She says you can hardly turn on the TV these days without seeing Obama - and she also points out that Obama seems a very nice man.

This could spell some rather large trouble for Hillary.

Why? Because Hillary's whole campaign is based upon an alleged appeal to women - women will carry her to the nomination, and women will then carry her to the White House (some Democratic pundits are claiming that huge numbers of GOP women will vote for Hillary just for the chance to vote for a woman - a monstrous insult to all women, but Democrats do have a lot of contempt for the special interest groups they claim to serve). Obama's natural constituency, of course, would be black Americans - but there aren't a lot of black Americans in Iowa and New Hampshire. So, if Obama wants to do anything at all, he simply must eat into Hillary's prime constituency - and getting on daytime television and being a nice guy is an excellent way to get started.

Never underestimate the power of just being likable. Hillary's likability fluctuates on the scale between that of a tarantula and a dead cat - Obama's seems to be on the level of a new puppy. Obama may very well be building a reservoir of good will among the very constituency most vital to Hillary and most likely to actually vote in Iowa and New Hampshire (if you've got time to watch Oprah during the day, then you've likely got time to go vote, too). Hillary might find herself thinking of redecorating the White House, and then suddenly find herself barely coming in first in Iowa...and coming in second in New Hampshire. Really, it may all come down to whether or not Obama is also building the ground game necessary to get well-disposed voters to the polls...and he may well end up destroying the myth of Clinton invincibility. After that, it would be anyone's guess what would happen.

Posted by Mark Noonan at 06:48 AM | Comments (17) | Track



Comments

I would like to ask a question about Ron Paul.

He is the only anti-Iraq candidate and he broke the one-day record of raising money on November 5th.

He also receives more money from members of the military than any other Republican candidate.

What do you think of that? Our soldiers are massively supporting a man who wants to pull out of Iraq. So if we want to support the troops, should we support the candidate they are supporting?

Posted by: Christian Wright at November 7, 2007 07:31 AM


Hillary's likability fluctuates on the scale between that of a tarantula and a dead cat -

I think you've nailed it, Mark.

Posted by: Retired Spook [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2007 07:47 AM


A completely inexperienced first term Senator, and a retread politico who trumps her tenure as "First Lady" as her uniquely qualified experience to be President, is the best the Democrats can do?

Either Obama or Clinton will be their nominee and maybe it's just me, but that is a very weak choice.

The GOP should be licking their chops waiting for the general.

Posted by: neocon [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2007 08:17 AM


Necon,

I keep waffling back and forth between thinking that there's no way Hillary can win the nomination and the fact that her competition is so weak that there's no one who can beat her.

When asked recently what qualifications she had to be President, one of the things she said was that she's been a long-time children's advocate. I almost busted a gut laughing.

Posted by: Retired Spook [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2007 08:26 AM


depends on if the Obama backers force Colbert off the ballot ala Carolina.

talk about a farce of a farce....

Posted by: OhioOrrin at November 7, 2007 08:54 AM


I heard that too Spook. I can't think of two less qualified candidates for the Democrats than Obama and Clinton. The GOP should mop the floor with either one.

Also, if Clinton is the nominee, she will bring along with her the baggage from the Clinton years effectively making the GOP candidate, the candidate for change, and that will be fun to watch.

Posted by: neocon [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2007 09:08 AM


Hey Spook & Neocon

Do finger nails on a chalkboard ring an obnoxious bell? yiiikes!!

I too wonder just how many gullible voters will come out of the woodwork to vote for either, simply due to their gender/color....scary!

Posted by: navydad [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2007 09:56 AM


" too wonder just how many gullible voters will come out of the woodwork to vote for either, simply due to their gender/color....scary!"

Probably not as many (on both sides) who will vote simply due to party affiliation without regard to any other issues.

Posted by: Parker [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2007 10:44 AM


btw - I'm not voting for Hillary. Never did, never will. It has nothing to do with gender. Being from NY, I don't like carpetbaggers stepping on my back for their own political gain.

Posted by: Parker [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2007 10:48 AM


Parker,

I think you'd be surprised at how many conservatives are frustrated with the candidate pool in which we have to choose, and although there is only one Dem that I'd even consider voting for (who is now an "I"), I believe that the left in this country is faced with an even steeper challenge to find a candidate with the fiber neccessary to lead. Thus far, all I see is fluff and emotional attraction.


Posted by: navydad [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2007 11:15 AM


Being from NY, I don't like carpetbaggers stepping on my back for their own political gain.

I'm originally from NY state, but my family moved away (due to Dad's changing jobs) before I turned 18. I couldn't agree more on carpetbaggers (and I've said this before), and that goes for even for Republican baggers like Bill Brock and Alan Keyes.

I can't think of two less qualified candidates for the Democrats than Obama and Clinton.

She was hardly qualified to be the Senator from NY, and yet she pulled that off, thanks in part to Giuliani's withdrawal and replacement by a relatively weak Lazio. That's the problem - her low degree of qualification won't necessarily stop her, which is why I will not rule her out until either the Dem convention or (if they nominate her) the general election.

Hillary's likability fluctuates on the scale between that of a tarantula and a dead cat

Watch out, Mark. PETA might protest this statement ;>)

Posted by: Bigfoot [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2007 12:04 PM


Mark, a roadkill cat in last-stage rigor has more warmth than Hillary.

While I am not really thrilled with any of the Republican candidates, I am warming up to the dark horse in the race, Huckabee.

I think that Guiliani could lead the country. I think that Romney could lead the country. They both have proven leadership ability----I would put the demands of being mayor of New York at about equal to those of being governor of a mess of a state like Mass. I think they are smart, and tough, and likable, and probably good at pulling opposing sides together---as much as anyone can be, given the absolute determined ANTI positioning of the majority of the Dems right now.

But Huckabee has all those qualities, too, with the absence of the negatives of Guiliani and Romney. He is a governor, has the experience of leading, and by all accounts has been good at it. But he has had only one wife, no affairs, no waffling on key social issues, and while he is an evangelical Christian he is not in-your-face about it and his religion will not bring out the bigots like Romney's might.

In addition, he is very smart, very funny, very likable, and grows on you as you listen to him and watch him interact with people on the campaign trail.

I think we might be underestimating him.

Posted by: Almiranta [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2007 08:37 PM


Really, it may all come down to whether or not Obama is also building the ground game necessary to get well-disposed voters to the polls...and he may well end up destroying the myth of Clinton invincibility. After that, it would be anyone's guess what would happen.
What immediately came to mind was the bit in the Swamp Castle part of Monty Python and the Holy Grail where the bride's father was about to recover from his injuries.

In other words, an arkancide.

Posted by: Leslie Bates at November 7, 2007 08:50 PM


I must also say that Hillary has all the warmth of Joe Stalin in his present condition.

Posted by: Leslie Bates at November 7, 2007 08:53 PM


Almiranta,

And Huckabee might surprise us all, too...I admit that I'm only now really beginning to pay attention to the race. Something in me refused to get involved in large way more than a year before the votes are cast, ya know? I'm personally warming to Huckabee, though I've also got good things to say about Romney.

Posted by: Mark Noonan [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2007 09:51 PM


Leslie,

Excellent, obscure reference!

Posted by: Mark Noonan [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2007 09:52 PM



You are close about Hillary's personality Mark, but it is more of a dead cat swarming with tarantulas, maybe some black scorpians in there too just for fun.

I find it funny that all of you think Hillary is underqualified to be president as well as to have been a senator. She is obviously smart, ruthless and has a law background like the majority of those in Congress and to occupy the White House.

Not even a month ago Mark suggested that Laura Bush should run for Congress from Texas. Hmmm, a first lady librarian's qualifications vs those of Hillary. Check Mate. But hey, I see how that doesn't fit into the Hillary hatefest very well.

As far as the Dem canidates go, we could have better. I don't believe Hillary will be the nominee however. Looking at your side's canidates, you have former actor/lobbyist that was hoped to be the 2nd coming of Reagan but fell flat, Rudy "9/11" Guliani whose only strong point is selling fear, marched in gay pride parades, is pro-choice, and pro gun control (I can't wait til he gets the nomination and flip flops back to his old positions), then there's Mitt the Morman. He was/is pro choice, pro gun control, and subscribes to a religion that many southern conservatives consider a cult and would never vote for. I just like to say I don't care what Romney's religion is, but a lot of right wing Christians do.

Politics is looking good from both sides and next years promises to to be one of the more interesting campaigns in quite some time. I think the left will have the last laugh.

Peace, Gaijin

Posted by: Gaijin at November 7, 2007 09:54 PM