Jay Cost over at Real Clear Politics has some interesting info on that:
Curtis Gans of American University's Center for the Study of the American Electorate has just published a new report that analyzes nationwide registration data. Based upon the 34 states that have reported registration statistics, he finds that 68% of the voting age public is eligible to vote. This is unchanged since 2002.
Gans also offers some surprising information on partisan registration. He has analyzed the 13 states that have supplied partisan registration voting data, comparing them to prior years. Relative to 2002, the Republicans have actually closed the registration gap. In 2002, the Democrats had a 7.0% registration advantage over Republicans in these 13 states. This year, their advantage is down to 5.8%...
...this data offers some interesting qualifications on the "disspirited" storyline that the press has embraced. If Republicans are disspirited, they do not seem to be expressing it by altering their long-term registration habits in these 13 states. The trend line of the last 44 years has not been interrupted in any kind of significant way due to Republican morosity. In the last 44 years, the Republican percentage of registered voters has grown, on average, by 0.47% per midterm year. In the last 28 years, it has grown by 1.4% per midterm year. This year's growth of 0.8% is actually identical to the 1998 - 2002 growth. The Democratic decline, meanwhile, has averaged 0.96% per midterm year in the last 44 years. In the last 28 years, they have declined by an average of 0.55% per year. Between 1998 and 2002, they declined by 1.2% -- though this might have been a "correction" for their 2.4% increase in registrants between 1994 and 1996 (their largest in the 44 year period). This year, their rate of decline is 0.4%.(emphasis added)
What people say, what people do - always, always remember that in our era of a lying/incompetant media and a completely dishonest Democratic Party. In the public opinion polls, the "fake but accurate" MSM alleges that people are saying "yeah Democrats!", but what people are doing indicates "yeah Republicans!". We could not have closed the registration gap between 2002 and 2006 unless the GOP base was still vibrant and continuing its 40 year march to an absolute majority in American politics. And, of course, senior Democrats know this - which is why their whole 2006 campaign has been built around running quasi-conservative Democrats in red States while attempting to depress GOP turnout with an endless barrage of slanders, lies and sleaze. What the Democrats are doing indicates that they know full well their chances of winning a majority are vanishingly small unless there is a complete collapse of GOP turnout.
Will there be such a collapse? I feel quite certain there won't be - in fact, I think that GOP blood is starting to boil out there over the outrageous antics of the Democratic Party in the home stretch of this campaign. I fully expect a shocked MSM, a depressed Democratic Party and Carville with a trashcan on his head come Tuesday evening.
Posted by Mark Noonan at November 4, 2006 12:16 AM
Comments
Mark sez:
"I think that GOP blood is starting to boil out there over the outrageous antics of the Democratic Party in the home stretch of this campaign."
Jeez, don't you even read the PAPER, Mark? GOP blood is boiling because:
a) the President has completely abandoned every conservative principle that can be imagined
b) the Republicans have become the party of borrow and spend and spend and spend
c) the war in Iraq is an unqualified disaster
d) the House leadership is best known for having covered up for a serial kid-chaser
e) the Evangelical movement in America is led by a man-loving drug addict
f) the most indignation the GOoPers can muster is for a crappy joke John Kerry made at a rally about the President that was twisted into sounding like he was slamming the troops
Lord, I could go on and on. (And on!) But why bother? Tuesday, Mark, you're going DOWN.
And Wednesday morning? I'll be the first one to post a comment on your mea culpa.
See you then, pal.
Posted by: Cyberactor at November 4, 2006 12:36 AM
Cyber,
Your problem is that you do, indeed, read the paper - which means you are getting something which is improperly stated, when not outright fabricated. We don't refer to it as the "fake but accurate" MSM just out of the blue, you know?
The President has abandoned no conservative principle that he ran on OTHER than the position we all held pre-9/11 that nation-building wasn't worth the effort - it was that horrible attack which convinced most conservatives that no matter how hard it is, we have to do it because there is no way to make America 100% secure against terrorist attack. As for the rest of it - President Bush ran on low taxes, conservative judges, pro-life positions, defense of traditional marriage...he's been rock solid on the issues we care most about.
The Congressional GOP certainly has become institutionalised, and that is too bad - but we're already brewing up a leadership battle (no matter how Tuesday's vote goes) in which the conservative majority of the GOP caucus is determined that fiscal restraint shall rule the roost. Whether we are in the majority (as I expect), or temporarily in the minority, the 2007 House GOP will be leading the charge on spending control and reducing the size of government.
The liberation of Iraq has been an unqualified success - only people who read the papers and (worse) watch the televised MSM haven't a clue what is going on in Iraq.
The House leadership is best know for lots of things, but the Foley scandal isn't one of them.
The evangelical movement has lots of leaders - I'm a Catholic, so I'm not as tuned in to it as, perhaps, others are...but I never heard of that minister with the sex scandal before the scandal broke...if he did it, then he needs our prayers for his redemption...and we already know that his accuser, a drug-peddling male prostitute, definitely needs the grace of Our Lord. I hope you are praying for both of them.
That wasn't any joke Kerry said - I've listened to that tape about a dozen times now...that was just Kerry droning on with boilerplate about education, and Kerry's true attitude about the military just happened to come out at the end of it...keep in mind that he was the guy who lied from start to finish in his testimony back in 1971 when he accused our troops of being savages in Vietnam...he's keyed in on a "hate America" mindset, and the truth about it slipped out in an unmistakble manner.
And on Tuesday, we are standing tall for America. I doubt I'll see you any time after 10pm eastern time on Tuesday...just like on election day 2004, I fully expect you lefties to disappear for a few months...
Posted by: Mark Noonan at November 4, 2006 01:22 AM
How difficult a job it must be, to be a Rightie
trying to rally the troops, in this election.
You have got to feel like a word-contortionist,
twisting and turning the facts into the most
improbable of places. Be careful,there,buddy,
you might sprain a brain muscle with all of
that contorting.
Posted by: PukeOrDie at November 4, 2006 06:27 AM
We don't refer to it as the "fake but accurate" MSM just out of the blue, you know?
No, it's a finely honed talking point designed as a fail-safe explanation for anything when facts that don't align properly with Bizarro Republican Land. But you have trouble thinking outside of GOP talking points...too much exposure to Margolis, I suppose.
By the way, with all your spittle about the evil, evil Democrats ("Attempting to depress GOP turnout with an endless barrage of slander, lies, and sleaze." Yeah. It's like they're Karl Rove or something), you seem to be ignoring the entire forest in your own eye. Not that I expect you to have any sense of self-awareness--you've never demonstrated any such tendencies--but you should at least know why people consider you a joke, I suppose. I mean, "the liberation of Iraq has been an unqualified success?" Reality must never be allowed to intrude upon your world, eh Noonan?
Keep clapping, Tinkerbell.
Posted by: SeesThroughIt at November 4, 2006 10:26 PM
Please report any inappropriate comments to abuse (at) blogsforbush (dot) com. Be sure to include the title of the blog entry, the name of the commenter, and the text of the offending comment.
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Mark sez:
"I think that GOP blood is starting to boil out there over the outrageous antics of the Democratic Party in the home stretch of this campaign."
Jeez, don't you even read the PAPER, Mark? GOP blood is boiling because:
a) the President has completely abandoned every conservative principle that can be imagined
b) the Republicans have become the party of borrow and spend and spend and spend
c) the war in Iraq is an unqualified disaster
d) the House leadership is best known for having covered up for a serial kid-chaser
e) the Evangelical movement in America is led by a man-loving drug addict
f) the most indignation the GOoPers can muster is for a crappy joke John Kerry made at a rally about the President that was twisted into sounding like he was slamming the troops
Lord, I could go on and on. (And on!) But why bother? Tuesday, Mark, you're going DOWN.
And Wednesday morning? I'll be the first one to post a comment on your mea culpa.
See you then, pal.
Cyber,
Your problem is that you do, indeed, read the paper - which means you are getting something which is improperly stated, when not outright fabricated. We don't refer to it as the "fake but accurate" MSM just out of the blue, you know?
The President has abandoned no conservative principle that he ran on OTHER than the position we all held pre-9/11 that nation-building wasn't worth the effort - it was that horrible attack which convinced most conservatives that no matter how hard it is, we have to do it because there is no way to make America 100% secure against terrorist attack. As for the rest of it - President Bush ran on low taxes, conservative judges, pro-life positions, defense of traditional marriage...he's been rock solid on the issues we care most about.
The Congressional GOP certainly has become institutionalised, and that is too bad - but we're already brewing up a leadership battle (no matter how Tuesday's vote goes) in which the conservative majority of the GOP caucus is determined that fiscal restraint shall rule the roost. Whether we are in the majority (as I expect), or temporarily in the minority, the 2007 House GOP will be leading the charge on spending control and reducing the size of government.
The liberation of Iraq has been an unqualified success - only people who read the papers and (worse) watch the televised MSM haven't a clue what is going on in Iraq.
The House leadership is best know for lots of things, but the Foley scandal isn't one of them.
The evangelical movement has lots of leaders - I'm a Catholic, so I'm not as tuned in to it as, perhaps, others are...but I never heard of that minister with the sex scandal before the scandal broke...if he did it, then he needs our prayers for his redemption...and we already know that his accuser, a drug-peddling male prostitute, definitely needs the grace of Our Lord. I hope you are praying for both of them.
That wasn't any joke Kerry said - I've listened to that tape about a dozen times now...that was just Kerry droning on with boilerplate about education, and Kerry's true attitude about the military just happened to come out at the end of it...keep in mind that he was the guy who lied from start to finish in his testimony back in 1971 when he accused our troops of being savages in Vietnam...he's keyed in on a "hate America" mindset, and the truth about it slipped out in an unmistakble manner.
And on Tuesday, we are standing tall for America. I doubt I'll see you any time after 10pm eastern time on Tuesday...just like on election day 2004, I fully expect you lefties to disappear for a few months...
How difficult a job it must be, to be a Rightie
trying to rally the troops, in this election.
You have got to feel like a word-contortionist,
twisting and turning the facts into the most
improbable of places. Be careful,there,buddy,
you might sprain a brain muscle with all of
that contorting.
We don't refer to it as the "fake but accurate" MSM just out of the blue, you know?
No, it's a finely honed talking point designed as a fail-safe explanation for anything when facts that don't align properly with Bizarro Republican Land. But you have trouble thinking outside of GOP talking points...too much exposure to Margolis, I suppose.
By the way, with all your spittle about the evil, evil Democrats ("Attempting to depress GOP turnout with an endless barrage of slander, lies, and sleaze." Yeah. It's like they're Karl Rove or something), you seem to be ignoring the entire forest in your own eye. Not that I expect you to have any sense of self-awareness--you've never demonstrated any such tendencies--but you should at least know why people consider you a joke, I suppose. I mean, "the liberation of Iraq has been an unqualified success?" Reality must never be allowed to intrude upon your world, eh Noonan?
Keep clapping, Tinkerbell.