This is a public service done for our lefty readers - you are basing all your hopes on the polls, but you should have a bit of caution about them, as the Mystery Pollster notes:
This greater uncertainty means that minor differences in methodology can have a big impact on the results. Specifically, pollsters may vary widely in terms of the size of the undecided they report depending on how hard they push uncertain voters.
Second, the mechanics of House races polling can be very different from statewide methodology. The biggest challenge involves how to limit the sample to voters within a particular House district. In statewide races the selection is easy. Since area code boundaries do not cross state lines, it is easy to sample within individual states. So most of the statewide polls we have been tracking use a random digit dial (RDD) methodology that can theoretically reach every voters with a working land line telephone.
No such luck with Congressional districts, whose gerrymandered borders frequently divide counties, cities, even small towns and suburbs. Since very few voters know their district numbers, pollsters use a variety of strategies to sample House districts. Most of the partisan pollsters, as well as the Majority Watch tracking project, use samples drawn from lists of registered voters (sometimes referred to as "registration based sampling" or RBS). These lists make it easy to select voters within a given district, but the lists frequently omit telephone numbers for large numbers of voters (typically 20% to 40%30% to 50%**). Remember the real fear that RDD surveys are missing cell-phone-only households? Right now the missing cell phone households represent roughly 6-8% of all voters. Lists, obviously, miss many more. If the uncovered households differ systematically from those with working numbers on the lists, a bias will result.
The long and short of it is that polling for House races, especially, is a tricky enterprise - it can be done, but the very best of such polling is unlikely to make it in to the news because the people who pay for it are trying to figure out how to win a race, not impact a mere news cycle.
Because polling for House races is so difficult; because the GOP's GOTV is an intangible in the sense that people who are being "knock and drag" to the polls may very well not show up in polling; because the objective factors (economy, eg) don't indicate anti-GOP sentiment; because so many polls this past year have been demonstrated to have an enormous anti-GOP bias, I make my prediction of GOP victory on November 7th. When I say that all the left has is polls, I mean it - all they've got is polls. There is no other indicator of anything troubling for the GOP - though the polls, themselves, are troubling because by being endlessly touted, they can depress GOP turnout (which, I suspect, is the reason for the polls in the first place). But even with that risk, I'm still confident of victory - mostly because I'm fully aware of how much contempt GOPers have for the MSM - point blank, it is becoming more likely that an average GOPer will do opposite from what the MSM expects simply because the MSM expects it.
Time will tell if I'm right or whistling past the graveyard, but I feel just great these days.
Posted by Mark Noonan at October 21, 2006 03:55 AM
Comments
The term "State of Denial" comes to
mind here...
While the intricacies of polling are
undoubtedly complex to the layman,it
does'nt mean that the polls are
invalid. Keep in mind that the pollsters who
we're talking about have done this stuff
exclusively, for decades. Common sense
will also tell you that a "partisan
pollster" won't last very long in
the business. Credibility is the life-blood
of that field of endeavor.
I doubt that you had any problems with
the MSM in 2003, when they played
cheer-leader. I would bet the farm that
you did'nt have any problem with pollsters
right after 9/11, when Bush's ratings were
sky-high.
Posted by: PukeOrDie at October 21, 2006 06:05 AM
Reminds me of election day in 2004 with news reports the GOP being behind in exit polls. If memory serves me correctly, the majority polled were democrats. The only thing that has changed, the lopsided polling comes weeks prior to the election.
The GOP's GOTV is a machine, and I have every confidence Republicans will not lose the majority.
Posted by: Ann at October 21, 2006 06:25 AM
I think you may be right. No matter how many seat the GOP receive, it will be more than the polls say. Undecided voters are disproportionately Conservative. Thus if the Undisideds actually show up to vote. My guess is that they vote GOP in most districts.
Posted by: E J Hosdil at October 21, 2006 07:20 AM
landline telephone? what's that?
seriously, see the trouble with existing polling systems?
Posted by:
Gullyborg at October 21, 2006 12:31 PM
Young families with no land-line? Absolutely! I know many.
Does the Federal "Do Not Call" program also include political calls? I have not seen that question addressed on any blog.
Posted by: Doug at October 22, 2006 08:41 AM
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The term "State of Denial" comes to
mind here...
While the intricacies of polling are
undoubtedly complex to the layman,it
does'nt mean that the polls are
invalid. Keep in mind that the pollsters who
we're talking about have done this stuff
exclusively, for decades. Common sense
will also tell you that a "partisan
pollster" won't last very long in
the business. Credibility is the life-blood
of that field of endeavor.
I doubt that you had any problems with
the MSM in 2003, when they played
cheer-leader. I would bet the farm that
you did'nt have any problem with pollsters
right after 9/11, when Bush's ratings were
sky-high.
Reminds me of election day in 2004 with news reports the GOP being behind in exit polls. If memory serves me correctly, the majority polled were democrats. The only thing that has changed, the lopsided polling comes weeks prior to the election.
The GOP's GOTV is a machine, and I have every confidence Republicans will not lose the majority.
I think you may be right. No matter how many seat the GOP receive, it will be more than the polls say. Undecided voters are disproportionately Conservative. Thus if the Undisideds actually show up to vote. My guess is that they vote GOP in most districts.
landline telephone? what's that?
seriously, see the trouble with existing polling systems?
Young families with no land-line? Absolutely! I know many.
Does the Federal "Do Not Call" program also include political calls? I have not seen that question addressed on any blog.