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ANNOUNCEMENT: Matt Margolis & Mark Noonan get a book deal!


October 20, 2006
Now's not the time to drink the kool-aid; on the contrary...

As I've stated before on this blog, the willing shills of the democrat party, specifically the mainstream media, have been working overtime these past few weeks on a "depress the conservative vote" propaganda blitz the likes to which the works of Goebbels himself would pale in comparison.

As the MSM, more often than not, has been wrong and has gone so far as to outright lie lo' this past decade, I have admonished you to not believe a word you see or hear from the alphabets or the dead paper media regarding Republican chances this November, and that it would be more worth your while to trust your own instincts. Above all, a refusal to go to the polls would equal a democrat win, and more insidiously, a loss for all.

If you've "listened" to the "conventional wisdom" these past few weeks, you no doubt "know" that conservative voters are going to be staying home in droves this election season, due to the Mark Foley flap, the failed strategy in Iraq, and other supposed Bush administration failures.

But when you look at the real numbers, you must realize that this spate of anti-republican hit pieces has been more a product of fertile imaginations and wishful thinking than anything approximating reality. As Ken Mehlman notes:

The RNC's internal research shows election interest at 7.7 on a 10-point scale among Republicans and 7.6 among Democrats, unchanged from late September and in line with this year's overall trend.

Gallup (Oct. 6-8)

To quote from Gallup's voter turnout projection, "Gallup's latest analysis suggests Republicans and Democrats are now roughly even in terms of anticipated turnout in the midterm congressional elections. The voting intentions of the large pool of registered voters is now similar to the voting intentions of the smaller pool of likely voters, showing no disproportionate impact of turnout in either direction"

Gallup asked, "How motivated do you feel to get out and vote this year -- extremely motivated, very motivated, somewhat motivated, not too motivated or not at all motivated?(% "extremely" or "very" motivated)" The following table shows that the GOP in fact now holds a slight lead, up from just a few months ago:


GOP

DEM

NET

Sept 15-17, 2006

70%

67%

+3

Jun 23-25, 2006

74%

77%

-3

Oct 3-6, 2002

65%

55%

+10

Oct 29-Nov 1, 1998

59%

57%

+2

Oct 23-25, 1998

67%

56%

+11

Oct 9-12, 1998

59%

53%

+6

Sep 23-24, 1998

73%

62%

+11

Cook/RT Strategies (Oct. 5-8)

On a scale of one to 10, Republicans and Democrats have almost equally high mean election interest scores (8.2 for Republicans, 8.1 for Democrats), but Democrats hold a slight edge in the percentage of their voters who are "highly interested"--47 to 51 percent.

However, keeping in mind the local nature of midterm elections, it is more important to consider intensity by state or congressional district. RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics (conducted Oct. 8-10) released district-by-district polling showing Republicans have a slight edge in partisan intensity. GOP "voter motivation" is higher than Democratic motivation in 19 of 32 competitive House races, in some cases by as much as a full point on a 1 to 9 scale. Democratic intensity is higher in the remaining 13, and in none of those races is the difference higher than 2/3 of a point.

Additional Data

A recent Pew study (9/21-10/4) found that while roughly similar numbers of Republicans (41%) and Democrats (39%) are "regular" voters, more Republicans (25%) than Democrats (20%) vote intermittently--meaning there are more of our voters for us to turn out in a midterm election. Furthermore, Democrats (20%) are substantially more likely than Republicans (14%) to not be registered to vote at all.

Other Measures of Intensity

There are ways besides polls to measure the intensity of the Republican base, and those also indicate that GOP voters are strongly engaged. Fundraising, for example, is often called the 'first ballot' for the simple reason that supporters only donate when they are involved and enthusiastic. That is why we are excited that the RNC received support from 362,000 new donors this cycle. We've averaged 8,256 contributions for each deposit day so far this year. We just announced that September has been our best financial month of the entire cycle. Our supporters know how important this election is, and their financial support shows it.

Volunteer enthusiasm is another key measure of intensity. Again, every indication here is that our base is working hard for victory in the 2006 election. Republican volunteers have contacted more than 14 million voters this year, and more than 7 million since Labor Day alone. We have made 1 million voter contacts every week for the past five weeks, and for six weeks we have surpassed the number of contacts we made at comparable times in 2004, a presidential election year.

The Bottom Line

Despite the media hype, an examination of all the facts makes it clear: the Republican base is active and engaged. No matter how you measure it--whether by record-breaking fundraising, unprecedented volunteerism, or scientific polling--the numbers show that Republicans understand the importance of the choice we all face on November 7.

I'm not saying that this election is going to be a cakewalk for conservatives--far from it. But I do know that we will win if we put aside the pre-conceived fatalist mindset cultivated by the relentless attempts at conservative demoralization put forth by those who favor a democrat majority, and are willing to sell out core principles of journalism to accomplish those ends.

As Woody Allen said, in one of his more lucid moments, "Seventy percent of success in life is showing up."

Indeed, that relates to maintaining a conservative majority, as well.

Posted by leo at October 20, 2006 10:18 PM



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Comments

Just a little food for thought for all of you, both Left and Right. The noticable uptick in violence in Iraq -- is it a coincidence that it is occurring right before our election? Is it designed to hurt the GOP electoral chances? If so, why is that? If Bush and the GOP are doing such a horrible job of fighting the GWOT and prosecuting the conflict in Iraq, and consequently making it easier to recruit new jihadists, why would the terrorists and the jihadi militias want the GOP to lose?

Posted by: Retired Spook [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 20, 2006 11:49 PM

OOOOH it must be the gunman on the grassy knoll.

What kind of logic is this? The violence has been continuing to rise for going on 4 years now. It's up now it's down a little, it's up a bunch, and it’s down a little it's up some...

Oh but what am I saying this is someone that thinks Dubya is the savior in the second coming.

Or maybe he thinks it's a liberal conspiracy to have the elections right after Ramadan, that’s it it's the MSM and those damn liberals making the elections happen right after Ramadan!

;-)

Posted by: RAL [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 21, 2006 12:18 AM

RAL--do you really think we live in a vacuum? That our enemies pay no attention to what goes on here in politics?

Do you think it outside of the realm of possibility, given the cut and run sentiments fomented by the fever swamp left, that our enemies decided to make some extra noise around election time so as to make it more possible for those fever swamp adherents to gain power, and in doing so make the prospect of their victory all the more attainable?

There are four things that I have found to be nearly universal among liberals:

1. They operate on pure emotion, and are nearly devoid of critical reasoning skills.

2. To them, their words and actions have no consequences--they live in a vacuum.

3. They have no ability to link their actions to the consequences brought about by those actions. After all, their "good intentions" alone must negate the possibility of negative consequences.

Posted by: Psycmeistr [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 21, 2006 01:09 AM

Actually--I have some thinking to do about the fourth yet... :-)

Posted by: Psycmeistr [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 21, 2006 01:13 AM

Think about this: If you were a violent Terrorist
would you have gained power and balls under the Clinton administration, who really didn't stop you in your tracks or kill you? OR, would you want to fight like hell down to the wire before the American elections to try to have the GOP lose
since THEY are the ones who are trying to stop your killing them and their people? A Pass and Easier times under Clinton OR seeing the GOP,
under President Bush come after you to kill you,
BEFORE you can continue to go after other Americans to kill...Is it any wonder, the Islamo/
Nuts want to "help with the loss of Republicans in the upcoming elections by stepping up the action with their attacks"...Plus, remember, they
HEAR the Dems talk about "cutting and running", and that's what they want.

Posted by: Jo at October 21, 2006 01:51 AM

Please, with the polling! Forget the bloody polls. Get out there and fight for what you want, whatever side that is! The side that gets their folks out there to vote is the one that will win, period.

Posted by: Gozer [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 21, 2006 02:01 AM

Gozer--exactly. And that has been my point.

Posted by: Psycmeistr [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 21, 2006 02:20 AM

The DNC is using the media to brainwash people into believing "the majority" of the public "needs a change." It's an old Hilter trick to drive the masses into total support, especially when you start with a very small army and want a bigger one.

There are things we can do to curtail their lie campaign:
Write letters to editors, say in your letters you're not falling for their game and that a majority of people feel just as you do; tell the public what and how they are swaying votes and support for themselves; expose the DNC for the snakes they really are.

The DNC believes they can when every seat in Congress by using deceit and lieing. They are so high on themselves, they honestly believe the crap they've been dishing out. Look at the article here about Kennedy and the NCLB Act. Does it make sense to help create something to just destroy it later. They don't care about the public, they don't care who they destroy or what policy would ruin America. The only thing important to them is getting back in majority in Congress. Kinda sick, isn't it? To ruin innocent lives, to destroy childrens' future, to waste all those millions of dollars destroying good policy (not to mention the millions we have to pay for them to prolong rhetoric in sessions!), just so they can glorify themselves to win seats in congress.

Yes, I believe the DNC isfilled with some very sick people.
FIGHT THE DEMOCRATS!

Show people the tricks they're using, show them up/ Remember to tell the truth,and stay strong. They are so desparate for majority rule they'll do just about anything to get them.

Posted by: Fluffy at October 21, 2006 03:48 AM

You're right, Retired Spook. The jihadists ARE trying to influence America's elections.


Jihadists Killing To Influence Our Election

LGF, "Ed Lasky notes a column from Thomas Friedman (requires TimesSelect subscription) on the jihadists’ plans to kill for the media’s cameras—and for the political benefit of the cut-and-run Democrats.":


The jihadists follow our politics much more closely than people realize. A friend at the Pentagon just sent me a post by the “Global Islamic Media Front” carried by the jihadist Web site Ana al-Muslim on Aug. 11. It begins: “The people of jihad need to carry out a media war that is parallel to the military war and exert all possible efforts to wage it successfully. This is because we can observe the effect that the media have on nations to make them either support or reject an issue.”

It then explains that for jihadist videos of attacks on Americans to have the biggest impact, “Some persons will be needed who are proficient in the use of computer graphics including Photoshop, 3D Studio Max, or other programs that the people of jihad will need to design ... video clips about the operations.”

Finally, the Web site suggests that jihadists flood e-mail and video of their operations to “chat rooms,” “television channels,” and to “famous U.S. authors who have public e-mail addresses ... such as Friedman, Chomsky, Fukuyama, Huntington and others.” This is the first time I’ve ever been on the same mailing list with Noam Chomsky.

It would be depressing to see the jihadists influence our politics with a Tet-like media/war frenzy.

Posted by: Freedom1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 21, 2006 05:32 AM


God, how I wish that Leo P. was right, that the
democrats were even capable of a "propoganda
blitz"...Like they say, fight fire with fire.

Look at the bright side-if you guys lose the
House, they'll block funding to Vietn.., I mean
Iraq, then Bush can pull out and blame it on the
dems!

Posted by: PukeOrDie at October 21, 2006 07:10 AM

The targets of 9/11 were not the people in the WTC; they were just collateral damage. The targets were the rest of us and how we would react to 9/11. In that context, the terrorists have won. Our government, for the first time, passed a law that allows the violation of Common Article Three of the Geneva Convention. Our government now tortures its suspects and outsourcers torture to other countries. The writ of Habeas Corpus has been the foundation of Western Civilization since 1215, but Congress passed a law stripping suspects of this right. The founding fathers wrote the 4th Amendment so a suspect had the right to an attorney, but this administration has abolished this right. Our Republican-dominated Congress lives in fear of another attack and is attempting to spread that fear to the population through political ads. During the NSA hearing Senator John Cornyn ( R-TX) stated, “None of your civil liberties matter much after you’re dead” What a far cry from Patrick Henry’s, “Give me liberty or give me death.” It is time to sweep the cowards out of office and replace them with men who act with intelligence instead of reacting with fear.

Posted by: Christian Wright at October 21, 2006 08:24 AM

Yes I think the conservatives live in a vacuum. Iraq was the wrong war at the wrong time against the wrong people.

Because we are in Iraq we have just fermented the reason that OBL and his ilk have the recruiting that he does.

Why is it that terrorism is up, American deaths are up, the number of terrorists in the world are up. Why didn't your Daddy G. do something before 9/11, other than stop funding for anti-terror programs?

Unfortunately since we broke it, we are bound as Americans to fix what we have broken (unless you are a right wing Republican then honor and ones word mean nothing, certainly the George Bush ,Dick Cheney, Condoleezza Rice, and Donald Rumsfeld types).

Psycoticmeistr is a master of projection. The Bush administration operates in a vacuum of facts. They have no clue about the consequences of their actions. I guess they are too busy congratulating them selves on a "Mission Accomplished" to be bothered with the facts.

As far as good intentions on the Bush administrations actions, well... uh... I guess there are none. I stand corrected item 3 is not projection it is just the ranting of a psychotic.

You think the DNC is always lying? What planet have you been on for the last umpteen years? Karl Rove is the King of Slime and has put lying on a new high. He has perfected the lie in half truths and lies of omission, not to mention the art of character assassination with outright lies.

The Republican Party is the party against religion. Why else would they accept their vote and then laugh at them behind their back. Why would the Republican party promise the world to the Christians and get them to waste their time and money to perpetuate the lie and then pull the rug out from under them on every item that the Christians were promised? The Christians would be better dumping the Republican party and spending their time and money on their agenda.

The Democrats aren’t anti-religion. The just believe in the principals that this country was founded on, unlike the current crop of Republicans. You know simple things like separation of Church and State. Or were you absent during civics class. More likely you take after your Daddy G. and were too coked up or drunk to be bothered with learning anything and then have your daddy get you some bogus grades.

And to answer Jo, if I wanted to ruin America I would be praying for a Republican win. After all who is it that is systematically deconstructing everything the United States has stood for, for hundreds of years? Who is it that has pushed our military to its breaking point in an elective war so that we cannot go after the terrorist at large or face other potential? Who is it that has no understanding of what the terrorist represent and what the root causes of terrorism are? Who is it that has given the terrorist the perfect shooting gallery? Who is that has no plan? Who is it that has provided the terrorist with the greatest recruiting tool that they have ever had? Who is it that refuses to listen to the entire rest of the world, to people within their own country that know what is going on? Who is it that to employ high level administrators ideology is more important that having any skill for the post that they will employee?

Just remember upon coming into office the Bush administration was told numerous times of the threat the OBL and Al Qaeda posed. They were too busy with their get Saddam, Attack Iraq, get Saddam, Attack Iraq, get Saddam, Attack Iraq mantra to be bothered with a little thing like the protection of America.

Now on the other hand if the Democrats win the house and senate this absolute idiocy would stop and we could get on with the business of making America safe.

Posted by: RAL [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 21, 2006 10:56 AM

While I wish the GOP was doing better in the polls, I am pretty confident about this election. As someone who turns out to vote for dogcatcher, I am looking forward to the election and don't believe for one minute that my fellow conservatives aren't fired up to stop the possibily of there ever being a Speaker Pelosi.

Posted by: Scott at October 21, 2006 11:17 AM

"The just believe in the principals that this country was founded on, unlike the current crop of Republicans. You know simple things like separation of Church and State. Or were you absent during civics class."
I know one thing is for sure. You were absent during the writing of the Constitution (and probably spelling class, as well). Show me where, in the Constitution, it calls for a separation of Church and state, at least the way you libs read into things that aren't there. A tolerance of public displays of religious heritage (i.e., Ten Commandments, crosses at war memorials) does not ESTABLISHMENT make. You were no doubt present during civics class, but in your case it was probably dealing more with secular humanist doctrination vs. anything to do with civics.
Posted by: Psycmeistr [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 21, 2006 02:43 PM

Now on the other hand if the Democrats win the house and senate this absolute idiocy would stop and we could get on with the business of making America safe.

How are we going to be safe when the folks on your side of the aisle refuse to accept the fact that we are at war?

GOD help us if the dems gain control of congress. He's about the only one who would be able to at that stage of the game.

Posted by: Psycmeistr [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 21, 2006 02:45 PM

Now let's get this straight, it was the Bush administration that ignored all the warnings in 2000. The Clinton administration was ratcheting things up as much as the Republican House and Senate would allow.

You’re right spelling is not one of my strong suits; however every class that involved logic I got straight As, math science economics etc. I think we have more important things to worry about here than a few misspelled words. Obviously you did well in spelling but failed in subjects where logic is required. ;-)

Let's look at the facts.

1. 9/11 happened on Georg Bush's watch. He was warned and ignored the warnings. (No one can say for sure that if he had heeded the warnings that it could have been prevented, but there was no possibility of preventing it with the Bush administrations tack.)

2. In response we attack the wrong country.

3. In that war on the wrong country we have failed at virtually every step of the way, other than deposing Saddam. Iraq has been in a downward spiral and now is in a state of anarchy and civil war.

4. We are less safe now than before and the terrorists are working with ever more freedom. i. e. more attacks, more terrorists and more countries to operate from.

A quote often attributed to Benjamin Franklin that I think is appropriate her is “Those who would give up ESSENTIAL LIBERTY to purchase a little TEMPORARY SAFETY, deserve neither LIBERTY nor SAFETY.”

Now the Republicans want us to give up a bunch of liberty for no safety!

I never said that the separation of church and state was in the constitution it was one of the principals the country was founded on per Thomas Jefferson for one.

If you want a church run state why don’t you move to Iran, a nice place for those that think religion should run government, don’t you think?

But then this is what the conservative right is all about, taking things out of context and miss quoting to make their case. Like I said logic is not your strong suit. I guess that is why you like your Daddy G. so much, he reminds you of yourself.

Personally I have no problem with the Ten Commandments or even a statue of Jesus in a courthouse in and of itself. Where the problem comes in is that this is a symptom of a larger problem. The Religious Right seems to think that it has a right to tell me how I must live my life. I do believe that true Christian values are good; unfortunately Christians cannot even agree amongst themselves what these are.

I find it an odd coincidence that some of the most morally upstanding honorable people are non-religious and conversely some of the most reprehensible liars hide behind their religion. Not a scientific study, just an interesting observation.

The other thing I find interesting is that some of the Christians that are most committed to community, always donating time and money to the food bank, the kids centers, volunteering for big brothers or big sisters are the ones I would never know were Christians other than one Monday afternoon I happened to drive by a church and there they were mowing the lawn, cleaning the windows and when I ask they say that is their church. They don’t hide behind their religion.

Posted by: RAL [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 21, 2006 09:51 PM

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