Ok, so the North Koreans have tested a nuke: what are the options:
1. Immediate military action against NK's nuclear infrastructure.
Unlikely at this juncture - it would essentially require permission from China, Russia, SK and Japan...while such permission is not impossible to obtain, it would take weeks to get everyone on board. Additonally, while we've been working on deep bunker-busting weapons, it does not seem that we've perfected one as of this date - we might not have anything which can certainly destroyed NK's well-buried nucelar sites.
2. Naval and air blockade.
A full blockade is an act of war, and thus unlikely as it would give NK its excuse to bombard Seoul, which would cause massive loss of life and economic dislocation leading, possibly, to world wide depression. A partial blockade, on the other hand, is very possible. We can enhance existing UN resolutions to more energetically stop NK from exporting any sort of military hardware. The drawback is that this won't seriously hamper NK's leadership, but will cause even more hardship to NK's long-suffering civil population.
3. UN economic sanctions.
North Korea doesn't have an economy, and thus no set of UN economic sanctions will have any affect whatsoever.
4. Cut a deal with China to stop supporting NK.
North Korea lives as long as China props it up - while sanctions, partial blockade and at least the threat of military action are all in the arsenal for dealing with this, the swiftest and neatest way to resolve the problem is to dissolve the NK regime, and that is something which happens as soon as China gives the "ok". This would have to be a back-channel deal, and we'd have to give some serious quid-pro-quo to the Chinese to get them on board...but there isn't too much China could ask for which would be more expensive, in the long run, than leaving the current NK government in place. Other than an abandonment of Taiwan, we should be prepared to give China whatever it wants in return for cooperation is dismantling NK.
************************************************
Number 4 is what I think most likely to be attempted - though if it fails, we won't hear about it for 50 years..and even if it works, it'll be years before we start getting details of the event. Meanwhile, the crisis mode in the MSM will go forward and everyone involved will perform a graceful dance of international diplomacy while the real work of negotiations, as is a necessity for any real negotions, goes on behind closed doors.
UPDATE: The MSM (H/T The Belmont Club), predictably, holds the United States fully responsible for NK's actoins:
My conversations made clear that North Korea's missile tests in July and its threat last week to conduct a nuclear test explosion at an unspecified date "in the future" were directly provoked by the U.S. sanctions.
You know, just like Hitler was forced to kill the Jews because Jews in America were saying bad things about him for killing Jews...is there no amount of feces our MSM won't swallow as long as it has an anti-American angle to it?
Posted by Mark Noonan at October 9, 2006 03:16 AM
Comments
North Korea is using nuclear blackmail against the world.
I think our options suck, but option #2, a partial naval and air blockade combined with making Japan and possibly South Korea nuclear powers is the "best" option. Like I said before, our options suck.
:(
It's too bad our military couldn't perform a surgical strike and take out Kim Jong Il and his top lieutentants. It would (probably) be the solution to this nuclear crisis and the already horribly starved and suffering North Korean population wouldn't have to suffer any longer. They would finally be free of that monsterous Kim Jong Il.
Posted by: Freedom1 at October 9, 2006 03:59 AM
I agree completely. China is out main hope. I think we just have to make it clear to China that it is in their best interests an they will follow through.
China has a delicate issue in not overthrowing the last communist regime as they wouldn't like to admit they are national socialists.
They also stand much to gain by destabilization as it may allow them an opportunity to take Taiwan back (and appease communists sentiments), or Myanmar (for their oil). China's facing an economic depression the size of our Great Depression. I think they may go the route of bolivia and venezuela, and nationalize all US holdings. We probably wouldn't even embargo them as it'd hurt as more than them because we so stupidly put all our manufacturing in China.
Posted by:
Conservative Warrior at October 9, 2006 03:59 AM
I think that because we're overextended that we sadly are between a rock and a hard place.
See http://hunterp.wordpress.com/2006/10/09/a-way-forward-after-nks-nuke-test/
for my thoughts on the matter
Posted by:
Hunter P at October 9, 2006 04:04 AM
It's a shame that the US is overextended. I wonder which of his advisors short sighted plans he attempted to interpret.
See http://hunterp.wordpress.com/2006/10/09/a-way-forward-after-nks-nuke-test/
for my long term solution to poor planning.
Posted by:
hunterp at October 9, 2006 04:15 AM
Mark, there is no way China would go for that. They sure don't want tens of millions of North Korean refugees flowing over the border.
Posted by:
CJ at October 9, 2006 04:15 AM
THIS is a direct result of American forces tied up in the Middle East. Had we fought and won the war in Iraq swiftly we would not be in the predicament. Had we simply destroyed the Taliban, given Afghanistan a solid government, and flexed our muscles on the country that harbored OBL we would not be in this situation.
I have friends in Seoul. It's more than obvious to most of us that No. Korea knew it could thumb its nose at us because we are so limited to our options.
Our allies in the world are at an all-time low. We've been gearing up towards strikes on Iran. Our troops are stuck in a quagmire which we can't win militarily, and which we've been told may take YEARS to fix.
I know some of you reading this think I'm wrong, unpatriotic, not supporting America etc... DEAD WRONG. This is the time when I really wish we had a stronger hand to play. Instead we left with our officials spouting rhetoric about how awful the situation is, and how it won't be tolerated.
Let's see how long the MSM holds onto this story. My guess is you'll see it disappear with a few weeks. Why? Because our government won't like the answers it has to give the American Public.
This is a MAJOR event, folks. This is the first official nutcase with nuclear capability. Sure, India & Pakistan have the bomb, but they're only interested in each other's destruction, and their leaders know, and care about the implications of detonation. No. Korea is a different scenario altogether.
Had we not been tied down in this mess in the Middle East I seriously doubt Kim Jong Ill would have had the balls to done this, AND the international community would have rallied together in a post 9/11 world to crush them.
NOW? who knows. God help us all.
Posted by: Walcrowe at October 9, 2006 05:49 AM
But I thought Clinton, Carter,and Albright gave Lil' Kim 6 billion and some light water reactors in exchange for Lil' Kim's promise not to develop nukes? But at least Bill tried...He failed...but, he tried.
Just goes to show diplomacy and UN resolutions is not the answer when dealing with crazy dictators.
It is China who needs to step up and police the North Korean government. After all they have been propping up Lil' Kim all these years.
Posted by: Nebraska Militia at October 9, 2006 07:14 AM
Iran is next while our government sits idly by and watches.
Posted by: Parker at October 9, 2006 07:34 AM
Walcrowe - There is a whole lot of ignroance about North Korea. Taking out the leadership won't do it. Fighting a "conventional war" won't do it. The small token force we have their has largely been symbolic for years.
You can blame it on Iraq if you want, but this is just wrong. Korea has been a growing problem for a long time.
If North Korea pulls the trigger - expect to see the immediate launching of hundreds of "tactical" nukes. It would be the only way to stop them.
Posted by: Kahn at October 9, 2006 07:45 AM
I think the proliferation issues is a lot scarier than the threat of a direct attack from NK, or from any country for that matter. This situation (and Iran) are a direct result of Pakistan's inabilty to secure it's nuclear technology. As long as radical and/or unstable governments in impovershed areas are allowed to continue to develop WMD's, it's just a matter of time (a short time) before they fall into terrorist hands. We all know the rest of the story.
Posted by: Parker at October 9, 2006 07:46 AM
Nebraska Militia,
Lets use a poker analogy to explain this:
Clinton's diplomacy shut down work on a plutonium bomb until 2001, when the Bush administration decided that the agreement with North Korea amounted to appeasement. Lots of tough talk from the Bush administration, then. (This is what's called a bluff.)
In late 2002, as we were gearing up to invade Iraq, North Korea restarted work on a plutonium bomb. (They called our bluff.)
After that, Bush did nothing. No military action, no diplomatic action, just more tough talk. (He folded.)
Four years later, the work started in 2002 has come to a horrible fruition, and now we're in a hell of a spot, since Kim Jong-Il now has 'the nuts'.
Diplomacy is not perfect, Clinton's diplomacy did not close the door on all nuclear bomb production (uranium production was still available under the agreement). However, it is infinitely better than the tough talk policy of Bush. That has led us into this mess, not Clinton's diplomacy.
Oh well, on to Iran...
Posted by: steveGA at October 9, 2006 08:33 AM
the most useful solution is for Japan, S Korea, & Taiwan to start-up nuke R&D.
once china is thusly alarmed, trade that 4 DPRK...& Iranian decommissioning.
Posted by: OhioOrrin at October 9, 2006 09:04 AM
Parker - thats a good point.
Personally, after growing up seeing my father suffer nightmares and flashbacks from Korea - I have NO desire to see us go to war there.
Posted by: Kahn at October 9, 2006 10:47 AM
Maybe one of you can explain why bush is so hot to bomb Iran, which by all accounts is 10 years away from obtaining a bomb, yet is nearly completely ignoring North Korea which has one?
Posted by: Gonnuts at October 9, 2006 11:06 AM
Walcrowe,
The elephant in the room is China, not Iraq. If we weren't concerned about a Chinese retaliation, North Korea would be target practice for our stealth bombers right now.
I do think Orrin has the right perspective here. While I don't think South Korea should necessarily be armed, talking about arming Taiwan and Japan with nukes may be the most stabilizing option here, the one most likely to bring China back to the table. Make no mistake, arming Taiwan should be a threat, not an action, because it would be a great excuse for China to attack them. But I'm not at all convinced arming the Japanese would be a bad thing here, both with nukes and missile defense systems.
Posted by: Morris at October 9, 2006 11:14 AM
Don't give China anything, tell them we are going to take away their "Favored Nation" status in trading, pass a few laws making investing in China much harder for American companies. Then see if they will finally cut off North Korea.
Posted by: jbwbubba at October 9, 2006 11:57 AM
Let's ask Axis what he would do...I think he would like to read them a bed time story.
Posted by: Warriornation at October 9, 2006 12:04 PM
Overextended has nothing to do with it. The problem is that a military option is a disaster to begin with.
Seoul is only 25 miles from the border and has 12,000,000 citizens. Any attack on N. Korea means putting S. Korea in great peril. Also puts Japan in great peril as well.
This has always been the issue with N. Korea....proximity to it's neighbors. This is also why this administration has pushed so hard to have Japan, China and S. Korea directly involved in the talks as they have the most to lose.
Posted by: Warriornation at October 9, 2006 12:06 PM
Here's a little something I found that explains why the denuclearization agreement failed.
Heres an excerpt:
"Already, analysts are identifying the disaster that occurred after denuclearization agreement had been reached with North Korea agreement with the United States, China, Russia, Japan and South Korea. As Meteor Blades records on the front page here at Dkos, Pyongyang pledged to "abandon all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs." In return, Washington agreed that the United States and North Korea would "respect each other's sovereignty, exist peacefully together and take steps to normalize their relations." Within four days, the US blithely "imposed sweeping financial sanctions against North Korea designed to cut off the country's access to the international banking system, branding it a "criminal state" guilty of counterfeiting, money laundering and trafficking in weapons of mass destruction."
The source is here: http://scoop.epluribusmedia.org/story/2006/10/9/5361/11426
Posted by: Jeff777 at October 9, 2006 12:26 PM
China is the answer. The North Korean regime exists only because of their support. At this point we put in motion nuclear arming of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan until the Chinese bring down the N. Korean regime. They like having N. Korea as a pawn in their rivalry with the U.S., but would give it up to avoid having three nuclear rivals at their door.
Posted by: Steve Watson at October 9, 2006 12:27 PM
Jeff...what utter tripe.
From 1993 to 2001 the N. Koreans were still processing nuclear materials despite them promising they wouldn't. Remind me again who was in office.
Example: "ctually, the North Korean cheating wasn't the least bit surprising. The CIA had thought North Korea wouldn't comply with the agreement all along. "Based on North Korea's past behavior," the CIA reported in 1995, "the [intelligence] community agrees it would dismantle its known program, [only] if it had covertly developed another source of fissile material."
or this
"The U.S. came to believe in 1997, for instance, that North Korea had built an underground nuclear facility in Kumchang-ri. The administration still dishonestly maintained that all was well with the Agreed Framework. On July 8, 1998, Albright told Congress, the Agreed Framework had "frozen North Korea's dangerous nuclear-weapons program." When intelligence about the suspect site at Kumchang-ri became public in August 1998, Albright told frustrated senators at a hearing that she hadn't known about the information until later in July. The head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, present at the hearing, had to interrupt her: "Madame Secretary, that is incorrect." She had been told many months earlier."
Please Jeff, do yourself a favor and READ your own party's comments!!! Stop the lying!
Madelline NoTsoBright even admitted later that the Clinton administration was DUPED. Good Lord, this is directly from her piehole!
Posted by: Warriornation at October 9, 2006 01:04 PM
Let's also not forget that it was the Clinton Administration that gave the N. Koreans the NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY TO BEGIN WITH.
That was part of the deal in 1993.
Oh how quickly the lunatics on the left forget.
Good Lord this country is in for a real hurt if these idiots are elected.
Posted by: Warriornation at October 9, 2006 01:06 PM
Howard Dean and the DNC sent out an email today blaming Bush for this. How hilarious that they said Bush took office in 2000. No Howard, he took office in 2001 you idiot.
What a moron
Posted by: Warriornation at October 9, 2006 02:00 PM
And now wouldn't you know it, that Harry Reid is calling for
"http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Page=/Politics/archive/200610/POL20061009b.html">a full investigation of the Bush administration's North Korea policy:
(CNSNews.com) - Reacting to the announcement that North Korea successfully conducted a nuclear test, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) called Monday for an investigation of the Bush administration's "failed North Korea policies."
In a release, Reid said that "on the Bush Administration's watch, North Korea's arsenal has grown to as many as a dozen bombs," because he said Bush is "distracted by Iraq and paralyzed by internal divisions."Of course, Reid's rhetoric will never include the phrase,
"Because Bill Clinton was distracted by interns who could have been his daughter's age and sent a senile failed ex-president to gift a tyrannical regime with nuclear technology."
Naaaahhh...
Posted by:
Psycmeistr at October 9, 2006 05:30 PM
From Jimmah Carter..."I'm convinced the North Koreans will not test nuclear weapons."
Nobel laureate and ex-envoy Jimmy Carter, on CNN (after his dealings with dictator Kim Il-sung) on June 22, 1994
CARTER: What the North Koreans were waiting for was some treatment of their exalted leader with respect and a direct communication. I didn't have to argue with him. When I outlined the specific points that were the Clinton administration's position, I presented them to him. And with very little equivocation, he agreed. I think it's all roses now. I've known that there were people in Washington who were sceptical about any direct dealing with the North Koreans. They were already condemned as outlaws. Kim Il-sung was already condemned a criminal.
Question: Are you absolutely convinced that the North Koreans are going to honour this agreement, that while talks are going on that it's not just a matter of buying time on the part of the North Koreans, that they will not secretly pursue the nuclear program they were pushing earlier?
Carter: I'm convinced. But I said this when I got back from North Korea, and people said that I was naive or gullible and so forth. I don't think I was. In my opinion, this was one of those perfect agreements where both sides won. We should not ever avoid direct talks, direct conversations, direct discussions and negotiations with the main person in a despised or misunderstood or condemned society who can actually resolve the issue.
Posted by: Warriornation at October 9, 2006 08:18 PM
I think a little perspective is in order. The truth is, this is the democrats last chance to do anything, ever. They will probably get a small majority in this election, but as usual they will manage to screw everything up.
The troops will be forsaken, foreign policy will become appeasement, taxes will jump and the economy will stagnate. The libs will do what they ALWAYS do, ruin everything for everyone else. Oh look, gas prices are going up while the dems control the show, who woulda thunk it?
Meanwhile, the bad guys will get badder, the libs will create copious amounts of glaring mistakes in the face of threats, and the nation will finally see that the dems just cant be trusted to protect the nation. Lets face it, they are bamboozling just enough people to gain an edge, but the chickens will have to come home to roost sooner or later. 'No new ideas' will manifest itself within a few months and the bamboozled will realize their mistake.
'08 comes along and two years of watching Pelosi and Kennedy cry over terrorists will move the country to oust them for good. White House stays and we get back the houses. Dont think it can happen? Just wait until the far-left whackjobs start demanding payback for all their hard work, all those sick, odd ideas they have will start reaching the floor of the senate...then America gets to see what it really signed up for.
Look on the bright side, if the libs get control WE get to do the dissecting, and boy-howdy do I look forward to that!
Posted by: Bacon-I Will Miss Thee at October 9, 2006 09:48 PM
In all fairness, I want to give credit where credit is due, so my hat is off to Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton who did stop the development of a uranium based nuke by North Korea, instead they have a plutonium based nuke.
Now how did that happen ? It's always the one that got away.
Posted by: Neo at October 10, 2006 09:26 AM
Let's consider our options, but first let's consider North Korea.
North Korea, besides have over a thousand artillery pieces facing the South and a very large army, is a basket case. The PRC knows it is a basketcase, as it has been propping up North Korea, just to avert a collapse.
The military options mentioned by some in regard to North Korea are complicated by two possible unwanted outcomes. A military option that breaks the armistice could mean all out war with the immediate endangerment of over 5 million civilians and military. It is doubtful that any realistic troop levels on the part of the US (with or without Iraq) would stop this outcome, if some provocative military action was undertaken. This is the reason that No. Korea knew it could thumb its nose at us.
The second and eventual outcome is a collapse of the government in North Korea. Many in the PRC believe that eventually the government will collapse sometime in the next ten years. Their efforts to prop out the government is not ideological, but rather economical. North Korea is such a basketcase, that the collapse of the government will spur a humanitarian crisis on a scale not seen since World War II. The PRC is hoping for a soft landing in North Korea, but the definition of "soft landing" will be stretched beyond recognition.
The hope of the international community has been that the eventual collapse would occur without a nuke in the mix, but given that it will eventually happen, it is now even more important to keep the regional "6-way" talks and working groups intact to handle the eventual humanitarian crisis.
Posted by: Neo at October 10, 2006 09:53 AM
Warrior,
That's all and good until you realize that N. Korea didn't conduct a nuclear test under Bill Clinton. They didn't pull out of the NPT under Bill Clinton.
George Bush threw out the agreed framework and replaced it with tough talk, and threats that he couldn't back up. North Korea is now a nuclear state because of it.
Oh, and that said, George Bush has been President for 6 years. At what point do the bad things that happen under his watch stop being Clintons fault and start becoming Bush's.
Posted by: Jeremy at October 14, 2006 03:04 AM
Oh, and warrior,
Under the Agreed Framework North Korea never attempted to make a plutonium bomb. What they were doing was secretly trying to make one out of Uranium which would have taken YEARS longer to make. The agreed framework put a halt to plutonium enrichment and put all plutonium stocks under the close watch of monitors. So while they may have been secretly trying to enrich uranium behind our back it still would have taken them years to successfully make a Uranium bomb.
But instead Bush trashes the agreed framework, and North Korea kicks out the monitors and begins making plutonium bombs. Bush essentially drasticaly shortened N. Korea's path to a nuclear bomb.
The agreed framework wasn't perfect but it had North Korea in check for the forseeable future. Not anymore.
Posted by: Jeremy at October 14, 2006 03:12 AM
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North Korea is using nuclear blackmail against the world.
I think our options suck, but option #2, a partial naval and air blockade combined with making Japan and possibly South Korea nuclear powers is the "best" option. Like I said before, our options suck.
:(
It's too bad our military couldn't perform a surgical strike and take out Kim Jong Il and his top lieutentants. It would (probably) be the solution to this nuclear crisis and the already horribly starved and suffering North Korean population wouldn't have to suffer any longer. They would finally be free of that monsterous Kim Jong Il.
I agree completely. China is out main hope. I think we just have to make it clear to China that it is in their best interests an they will follow through.
China has a delicate issue in not overthrowing the last communist regime as they wouldn't like to admit they are national socialists.
They also stand much to gain by destabilization as it may allow them an opportunity to take Taiwan back (and appease communists sentiments), or Myanmar (for their oil). China's facing an economic depression the size of our Great Depression. I think they may go the route of bolivia and venezuela, and nationalize all US holdings. We probably wouldn't even embargo them as it'd hurt as more than them because we so stupidly put all our manufacturing in China.
I think that because we're overextended that we sadly are between a rock and a hard place.
See http://hunterp.wordpress.com/2006/10/09/a-way-forward-after-nks-nuke-test/
for my thoughts on the matter
It's a shame that the US is overextended. I wonder which of his advisors short sighted plans he attempted to interpret.
See http://hunterp.wordpress.com/2006/10/09/a-way-forward-after-nks-nuke-test/
for my long term solution to poor planning.
Mark, there is no way China would go for that. They sure don't want tens of millions of North Korean refugees flowing over the border.
THIS is a direct result of American forces tied up in the Middle East. Had we fought and won the war in Iraq swiftly we would not be in the predicament. Had we simply destroyed the Taliban, given Afghanistan a solid government, and flexed our muscles on the country that harbored OBL we would not be in this situation.
I have friends in Seoul. It's more than obvious to most of us that No. Korea knew it could thumb its nose at us because we are so limited to our options.
Our allies in the world are at an all-time low. We've been gearing up towards strikes on Iran. Our troops are stuck in a quagmire which we can't win militarily, and which we've been told may take YEARS to fix.
I know some of you reading this think I'm wrong, unpatriotic, not supporting America etc... DEAD WRONG. This is the time when I really wish we had a stronger hand to play. Instead we left with our officials spouting rhetoric about how awful the situation is, and how it won't be tolerated.
Let's see how long the MSM holds onto this story. My guess is you'll see it disappear with a few weeks. Why? Because our government won't like the answers it has to give the American Public.
This is a MAJOR event, folks. This is the first official nutcase with nuclear capability. Sure, India & Pakistan have the bomb, but they're only interested in each other's destruction, and their leaders know, and care about the implications of detonation. No. Korea is a different scenario altogether.
Had we not been tied down in this mess in the Middle East I seriously doubt Kim Jong Ill would have had the balls to done this, AND the international community would have rallied together in a post 9/11 world to crush them.
NOW? who knows. God help us all.
But I thought Clinton, Carter,and Albright gave Lil' Kim 6 billion and some light water reactors in exchange for Lil' Kim's promise not to develop nukes? But at least Bill tried...He failed...but, he tried.
Just goes to show diplomacy and UN resolutions is not the answer when dealing with crazy dictators.
It is China who needs to step up and police the North Korean government. After all they have been propping up Lil' Kim all these years.
Iran is next while our government sits idly by and watches.
Walcrowe - There is a whole lot of ignroance about North Korea. Taking out the leadership won't do it. Fighting a "conventional war" won't do it. The small token force we have their has largely been symbolic for years.
You can blame it on Iraq if you want, but this is just wrong. Korea has been a growing problem for a long time.
If North Korea pulls the trigger - expect to see the immediate launching of hundreds of "tactical" nukes. It would be the only way to stop them.
I think the proliferation issues is a lot scarier than the threat of a direct attack from NK, or from any country for that matter. This situation (and Iran) are a direct result of Pakistan's inabilty to secure it's nuclear technology. As long as radical and/or unstable governments in impovershed areas are allowed to continue to develop WMD's, it's just a matter of time (a short time) before they fall into terrorist hands. We all know the rest of the story.
Nebraska Militia,
Lets use a poker analogy to explain this:
Clinton's diplomacy shut down work on a plutonium bomb until 2001, when the Bush administration decided that the agreement with North Korea amounted to appeasement. Lots of tough talk from the Bush administration, then. (This is what's called a bluff.)
In late 2002, as we were gearing up to invade Iraq, North Korea restarted work on a plutonium bomb. (They called our bluff.)
After that, Bush did nothing. No military action, no diplomatic action, just more tough talk. (He folded.)
Four years later, the work started in 2002 has come to a horrible fruition, and now we're in a hell of a spot, since Kim Jong-Il now has 'the nuts'.
Diplomacy is not perfect, Clinton's diplomacy did not close the door on all nuclear bomb production (uranium production was still available under the agreement). However, it is infinitely better than the tough talk policy of Bush. That has led us into this mess, not Clinton's diplomacy.
Oh well, on to Iran...
the most useful solution is for Japan, S Korea, & Taiwan to start-up nuke R&D.
once china is thusly alarmed, trade that 4 DPRK...& Iranian decommissioning.
Parker - thats a good point.
Personally, after growing up seeing my father suffer nightmares and flashbacks from Korea - I have NO desire to see us go to war there.
Maybe one of you can explain why bush is so hot to bomb Iran, which by all accounts is 10 years away from obtaining a bomb, yet is nearly completely ignoring North Korea which has one?
Walcrowe,
The elephant in the room is China, not Iraq. If we weren't concerned about a Chinese retaliation, North Korea would be target practice for our stealth bombers right now.
I do think Orrin has the right perspective here. While I don't think South Korea should necessarily be armed, talking about arming Taiwan and Japan with nukes may be the most stabilizing option here, the one most likely to bring China back to the table. Make no mistake, arming Taiwan should be a threat, not an action, because it would be a great excuse for China to attack them. But I'm not at all convinced arming the Japanese would be a bad thing here, both with nukes and missile defense systems.
Don't give China anything, tell them we are going to take away their "Favored Nation" status in trading, pass a few laws making investing in China much harder for American companies. Then see if they will finally cut off North Korea.
Let's ask Axis what he would do...I think he would like to read them a bed time story.
Overextended has nothing to do with it. The problem is that a military option is a disaster to begin with.
Seoul is only 25 miles from the border and has 12,000,000 citizens. Any attack on N. Korea means putting S. Korea in great peril. Also puts Japan in great peril as well.
This has always been the issue with N. Korea....proximity to it's neighbors. This is also why this administration has pushed so hard to have Japan, China and S. Korea directly involved in the talks as they have the most to lose.
Here's a little something I found that explains why the denuclearization agreement failed.
Heres an excerpt:
"Already, analysts are identifying the disaster that occurred after denuclearization agreement had been reached with North Korea agreement with the United States, China, Russia, Japan and South Korea. As Meteor Blades records on the front page here at Dkos, Pyongyang pledged to "abandon all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs." In return, Washington agreed that the United States and North Korea would "respect each other's sovereignty, exist peacefully together and take steps to normalize their relations." Within four days, the US blithely "imposed sweeping financial sanctions against North Korea designed to cut off the country's access to the international banking system, branding it a "criminal state" guilty of counterfeiting, money laundering and trafficking in weapons of mass destruction."
The source is here: http://scoop.epluribusmedia.org/story/2006/10/9/5361/11426
China is the answer. The North Korean regime exists only because of their support. At this point we put in motion nuclear arming of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan until the Chinese bring down the N. Korean regime. They like having N. Korea as a pawn in their rivalry with the U.S., but would give it up to avoid having three nuclear rivals at their door.
Jeff...what utter tripe.
From 1993 to 2001 the N. Koreans were still processing nuclear materials despite them promising they wouldn't. Remind me again who was in office.
Example: "ctually, the North Korean cheating wasn't the least bit surprising. The CIA had thought North Korea wouldn't comply with the agreement all along. "Based on North Korea's past behavior," the CIA reported in 1995, "the [intelligence] community agrees it would dismantle its known program, [only] if it had covertly developed another source of fissile material."
or this
"The U.S. came to believe in 1997, for instance, that North Korea had built an underground nuclear facility in Kumchang-ri. The administration still dishonestly maintained that all was well with the Agreed Framework. On July 8, 1998, Albright told Congress, the Agreed Framework had "frozen North Korea's dangerous nuclear-weapons program." When intelligence about the suspect site at Kumchang-ri became public in August 1998, Albright told frustrated senators at a hearing that she hadn't known about the information until later in July. The head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, present at the hearing, had to interrupt her: "Madame Secretary, that is incorrect." She had been told many months earlier."
Please Jeff, do yourself a favor and READ your own party's comments!!! Stop the lying!
Madelline NoTsoBright even admitted later that the Clinton administration was DUPED. Good Lord, this is directly from her piehole!
Let's also not forget that it was the Clinton Administration that gave the N. Koreans the NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY TO BEGIN WITH.
That was part of the deal in 1993.
Oh how quickly the lunatics on the left forget.
Good Lord this country is in for a real hurt if these idiots are elected.
Howard Dean and the DNC sent out an email today blaming Bush for this. How hilarious that they said Bush took office in 2000. No Howard, he took office in 2001 you idiot.
What a moron
And now wouldn't you know it, that Harry Reid is calling for "http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Page=/Politics/archive/200610/POL20061009b.html">a full investigation of the Bush administration's North Korea policy:
In a release, Reid said that "on the Bush Administration's watch, North Korea's arsenal has grown to as many as a dozen bombs," because he said Bush is "distracted by Iraq and paralyzed by internal divisions."Of course, Reid's rhetoric will never include the phrase,
Naaaahhh...From Jimmah Carter..."I'm convinced the North Koreans will not test nuclear weapons."
Nobel laureate and ex-envoy Jimmy Carter, on CNN (after his dealings with dictator Kim Il-sung) on June 22, 1994
CARTER: What the North Koreans were waiting for was some treatment of their exalted leader with respect and a direct communication. I didn't have to argue with him. When I outlined the specific points that were the Clinton administration's position, I presented them to him. And with very little equivocation, he agreed. I think it's all roses now. I've known that there were people in Washington who were sceptical about any direct dealing with the North Koreans. They were already condemned as outlaws. Kim Il-sung was already condemned a criminal.
Question: Are you absolutely convinced that the North Koreans are going to honour this agreement, that while talks are going on that it's not just a matter of buying time on the part of the North Koreans, that they will not secretly pursue the nuclear program they were pushing earlier?
Carter: I'm convinced. But I said this when I got back from North Korea, and people said that I was naive or gullible and so forth. I don't think I was. In my opinion, this was one of those perfect agreements where both sides won. We should not ever avoid direct talks, direct conversations, direct discussions and negotiations with the main person in a despised or misunderstood or condemned society who can actually resolve the issue.
I think a little perspective is in order. The truth is, this is the democrats last chance to do anything, ever. They will probably get a small majority in this election, but as usual they will manage to screw everything up.
The troops will be forsaken, foreign policy will become appeasement, taxes will jump and the economy will stagnate. The libs will do what they ALWAYS do, ruin everything for everyone else. Oh look, gas prices are going up while the dems control the show, who woulda thunk it?
Meanwhile, the bad guys will get badder, the libs will create copious amounts of glaring mistakes in the face of threats, and the nation will finally see that the dems just cant be trusted to protect the nation. Lets face it, they are bamboozling just enough people to gain an edge, but the chickens will have to come home to roost sooner or later. 'No new ideas' will manifest itself within a few months and the bamboozled will realize their mistake.
'08 comes along and two years of watching Pelosi and Kennedy cry over terrorists will move the country to oust them for good. White House stays and we get back the houses. Dont think it can happen? Just wait until the far-left whackjobs start demanding payback for all their hard work, all those sick, odd ideas they have will start reaching the floor of the senate...then America gets to see what it really signed up for.
Look on the bright side, if the libs get control WE get to do the dissecting, and boy-howdy do I look forward to that!
In all fairness, I want to give credit where credit is due, so my hat is off to Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton who did stop the development of a uranium based nuke by North Korea, instead they have a plutonium based nuke.
Now how did that happen ? It's always the one that got away.
Let's consider our options, but first let's consider North Korea.
North Korea, besides have over a thousand artillery pieces facing the South and a very large army, is a basket case. The PRC knows it is a basketcase, as it has been propping up North Korea, just to avert a collapse.
The military options mentioned by some in regard to North Korea are complicated by two possible unwanted outcomes. A military option that breaks the armistice could mean all out war with the immediate endangerment of over 5 million civilians and military. It is doubtful that any realistic troop levels on the part of the US (with or without Iraq) would stop this outcome, if some provocative military action was undertaken. This is the reason that No. Korea knew it could thumb its nose at us.
The second and eventual outcome is a collapse of the government in North Korea. Many in the PRC believe that eventually the government will collapse sometime in the next ten years. Their efforts to prop out the government is not ideological, but rather economical. North Korea is such a basketcase, that the collapse of the government will spur a humanitarian crisis on a scale not seen since World War II. The PRC is hoping for a soft landing in North Korea, but the definition of "soft landing" will be stretched beyond recognition.
The hope of the international community has been that the eventual collapse would occur without a nuke in the mix, but given that it will eventually happen, it is now even more important to keep the regional "6-way" talks and working groups intact to handle the eventual humanitarian crisis.
Warrior,
That's all and good until you realize that N. Korea didn't conduct a nuclear test under Bill Clinton. They didn't pull out of the NPT under Bill Clinton.
George Bush threw out the agreed framework and replaced it with tough talk, and threats that he couldn't back up. North Korea is now a nuclear state because of it.
Oh, and that said, George Bush has been President for 6 years. At what point do the bad things that happen under his watch stop being Clintons fault and start becoming Bush's.
Oh, and warrior,
Under the Agreed Framework North Korea never attempted to make a plutonium bomb. What they were doing was secretly trying to make one out of Uranium which would have taken YEARS longer to make. The agreed framework put a halt to plutonium enrichment and put all plutonium stocks under the close watch of monitors. So while they may have been secretly trying to enrich uranium behind our back it still would have taken them years to successfully make a Uranium bomb.
But instead Bush trashes the agreed framework, and North Korea kicks out the monitors and begins making plutonium bombs. Bush essentially drasticaly shortened N. Korea's path to a nuclear bomb.
The agreed framework wasn't perfect but it had North Korea in check for the forseeable future. Not anymore.