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ANNOUNCEMENT: Matt Margolis & Mark Noonan get a book deal!


October 08, 2006
Reality Check

Yesterday, President Bush spoke at the christening of the USS George H. W. Bush, the US Navy's newest aircraft carrier - here is part of what he said:

The George H. W. Bush will serve as a new generation of Americans every bit as brave and selfless as those who have come before them. The 21st century -- in the 21st century, freedom is again under attack, and young Americans are volunteering to answer the call. In the years since September the 11th, 2001, more than 1.6 million Americans have volunteered to wear the uniform of the United States. Today they serve in distant lands and on far seas -- from the islands of Southeast Asia, to the Horn of Africa, to the mountains of Afghanistan and in Iraq. And once again, with perseverance, and courage, and confidence in the power of freedom, a new generation of Americans will leave a more hopeful and peaceful world for generations to come.

Those who have been reading this blog since the 2004 election know that my constant refrain was, "pay more attention to what people do, rather than what they say". One of the things people have been doing, as noted by the President, is joining the military. 1.6 million volunteers since 9/11 - people who volunteered when they knew they would certainly be going in harms way at some point. And this past fiscal year, which ended September 30th, the military had its best recruitment year in a decade.

For an unpopular war, that is astounding - for an unpopular war during booming economic times, that is impossible.

The conventional wisdom is solidifying out there - left, right and center, the consensus is that the Foley scandal put the final nail in the GOP coffin. Stuart Rothenberg says a blowout is possible for the Demcorats next month - a crushing defeat of the GOP, and he's hardly alone. I am absolutely, 100% confident that Rothenberg and the conventional wisdom are wrong. Why?

Because of what I see people doing.

Newsweek just came out with another poll (I don't have a link for it), which alleges that 53% of the American people want the Democrats in charge of Congress next year and that more people trust the Democrats on the war and moral values than trust the GOP. So much for what people say - or, more accurately, what Newsweek's notoriously biased and inaccurate pollsters say people are saying. But it feeds in to the conventional wisdom, so I'll bet as the Sunday talk shows go forward, this poll gets more than one mention.

But what are people doing? Well, as mentioned before, one of the things they are doing is joining the military in large numbers. This is something whcih would not be happening if the war were unpopular. Period. No, there is no other explanation other than the continued popularity of the liberation of Iraq and the larger War on Terrorism to explain not just the raw numbers of volunteers, but also the fact that more people joined the mliitary in 2006 than did in 2005. This is not to say that some people don't despise the liberation of Iraq and the War on Terrorism - thing is, those who do despise both are home and thus able to make a lot of noise...in other words, they are able to say a lot of things about the war while others who support the war are actually doing something in it, and thus are too busy to deal with leftwing complaints.

People are also buying homes (even with the recent dip, home sales are still very brisk around the country), buying cars, starting new businesses, taking expensive vacations...in short, doing all the things you expect when the economy is good and people feel secure. These are not the sort of things people would do when the "right track/wrong track" numbers in polling show 2/3 or so of the people thinking we're heading in the wrong direction - and given that the polling shows large majorities thinking "wrong track", we can come to one of two conclusions: people are stupid, or the polls are wrong.

There is a real world out there - people inside the beltway, in the blogosphere and in the MSM make up a tiny fraction of America...and a fraction which mostly talks to itself. I think that out there in the country things are radically different from what we're seeing in polling and punditry. In fact, I'm actually sure of it - so sure of it that I'm sticking to my prediction not just of mere GOP victory, but actually increased majorities in both houses.

Am I a visionary or an idiot? Well, neither, actually...though if I'm wrong I'll have "idiot" tossed at me with wild abandon. On the other hand, if I turn out to be right, don't start thinking highly of me because of that - if I am right it isn't because of some genuis on my part but merely that I don't live on illusions. An MSM which gave us "fake but accurate", a political class which is so insular that it didn't raise an eyebrow about Foley or Jefferson until forced to it, and a blogosphere which inlcudes the likes of Daily Kos is not something that I will ever rely on for intelligent analisys (even though some people in all three areas are positively brilliant). Sometimes they can get raw information correct, but even when they do, they usually screw up the analysis because they think that everyone is just like them.

Time will tell - but as I've said before, I'm all geared up and in a fine mood - lets have at it, and let the wisdom of the American people prevail in November.

UPDATE: How the USS George H. W. Bush was made....

Posted by Mark Noonan at October 8, 2006 08:40 AM



Comments

an unpopular war

As we all know or remember, the Vietnam war was also unpopular. However, a funny thing happened back then in the world of music. The #1 song on the pop charts for 1966 was Ballad of the Green Berets by Staff Sgt. Barry Sadler, an unabashedly pro-military song recorded by a member of the military. This shows us that the anti-war "counterculture" did not speak for all Americans, but was merely a vocal minority, since the popularity of a pro-military song would not have been possible if everyone was against that war. And back then, the anti-war movement did not even bother to distinguish between "support the war" and "support our troops", usually calling our troops all kinds of nasty things such as "baby-killers", while ignoring the far worse baby-killing by the communists, just as the current anti-war crowd ignore the atrocities of Saddam Hussein, his government, and our current enemies in Iraq.

Posted by: Bigfoot [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 8, 2006 10:37 AM

they masses are joining because it's either that or a job at wendy's. what would you pick?

Posted by: lenny at October 8, 2006 11:01 AM

If the democrats win this Nov. and take over the house and/or the senate, it will show the massive disconnect between reality, and what is perceived as reality. The economy is steamrolling, thanks to the Bush tax cuts, and the deficit is not nearly as bad as everyone thought they were. Record amounts of tax being paid, Jobs being created, record highs on Wall Street, gasoline prices going down. And by the way, the war, although not going as we had planned it is still going pretty well. Iraqi and Afgani girls are going to school, (where are the leftist feminists who are always complaining about womens rights, and the right to choose, when their sisters in the middle east were getting stoned because they showed their face in public?) I'm am sick of the negativity on the left, and the ridiculous displays of protest when a conservative speaker shows up on a college campus. For those who want to teach the Republicans a lesson by not going to the polls and voting, I want you to think of one thing. What do you think things will be like with Pelosi as Speaker, and Murtha, Kennedy, Conyers, Durbin, Shumer, and the rest of their cronies running the show? I sudder to think.

Posted by: arcman [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 8, 2006 01:24 PM

This is a weak argument. You proport that the majority of Americans support the war in Iraq. You equate support for the war with support of the GOP.

Your best evidence is that 1.6 million Americans have joined the military since 2001. 1.6 million is 0.5% of the 300 million Americans. Hardly a majority. Even if 10 people support the war for every recruit, you're at 5%.

You claim that those who support the war are in Iraq fighting it, so it's not surprising that we hear lack of support in polls, at work, at school, etc. There are 150,000 troops in Iraq. Again, a fraction of a percent.

This line of reasoning just doesn't hold water. Laura Ingrahm recently used this same argument when she said the television show 24 is popular, therefore American support torture. This is just confused thinking. Will & Grace is a very popular and long-running television program about the life of 2 gay guys. Does that mean gay marriage has popular support and should be legal? A popular television show have a few million viewers, not a majority of Americans.

It just doesn't make sense to take the sentiments of a very small and distinct group of people and assume that they apply to all Americans. And although you criticize pollsters, they are very well aware of this fact. It's why they use scientific methods rather than sticking a wet finger in the air.

Of course, one can find examples of polls predicting incorrect results. And one can find thousands of examples of polls accurately predicting results.

Posted by: jonas at October 8, 2006 01:52 PM

Actually Arcman:
I predict that if they do take back the House and/or Senate, they'll immediately start saying how GREAT everything is... and with the media on their side; the people will start to actually hear the good news, and people's views will change.

It's what Clinton did. He wasn't in favor of a balanced budget, it was the Congress that gave him that yet he took credit.

Democrat M.O.: If the people will like it, we'll take credit even if we we're standing in the way of it; and if the people will hate it, we'll blame others even if we're the ones responsible.

Perfect example... they deride the politics of personal destruction... but look what they did to Judge Bork.

Posted by: wawilliyo [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 8, 2006 01:52 PM

You can expect to hear nothing but every piece of bad news they can dig up, between now and November 7. Anything to convince the sheeples how bad they are doing so Democrats get elected.

Posted by: Lew Waters [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 8, 2006 03:55 PM

Deleted - insults currently serving members of the United States Armed Forces.

Posted by: Willem van Oranje [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 8, 2006 04:16 PM

Jonas,

As I said, time will tell - but I think I'm on to something here. I could bulk it up a bit - whenever there is a vote which can be classed as an attempt to thwart Bush Administration war policy, it fails miserably in both Houses of Congress...if the war were genuinely unpopular, then even some GOPers would eagerly distance themselves from the war...

What people say, what people do - very often, they are 180 degrees out of sync...especially in a media-driven age where the media is often caught red-handed just making stuff up.

Posted by: Mark Noonan [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 8, 2006 04:24 PM

We all know exactly what "votevets.org" is.

It's definitely not non-partisan. It's a group that supports FIRED generals like Wesley Clark.

Posted by: wawilliyo [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 8, 2006 04:24 PM

"Lenny" is delusional. Maybe he isn't old enough to remember the economy during the Carter Administration. He might want to recall who controlled Congress in those days as well.

Posted by: Bill Cruchon at October 8, 2006 04:58 PM

Weak.

Posted by: Dave at October 8, 2006 05:09 PM

I think that this November will be a toss-up. Frankly, I would like some true fiscal, small-government conservatives to get elected, but given the current choices... that doesn't seem likely...

Posted by: Georgia Frawg [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 8, 2006 05:44 PM

"The 21st century -- in the 21st century, freedom is again under attack, and young Americans are volunteering to answer the call."-President Bush

Indeed. 1.6 million new American volunteers! Awesome!

Posted by: Freedom1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 8, 2006 06:28 PM

IF the dems take the house and senate in November they plan to reverse the tax cuts...that will kill the economy and create a recession which will last until the 2008 election.

Under normal circumstances this would spell defeat for them in the Presidential election. However the MSM will do its best to lay the recession on Bush.

Posted by: phnxbmed at October 8, 2006 07:00 PM

Lenny,

"they masses are joining because it's either that or a job at wendy's. what would you pick?"

My nephew serves - he graduated from the University of Maine. His sister serves - she's currently at the University of Maryland, well kinda, her reserve unit has her in Iraq for a few months. I served - I graduated magna cum laude with a 3.96 GPA.

You condescending and derogatory attitude explains why the military votes so strongly Republican.

"Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country." JFK

Too bad Democrats have forgotten this.

The military is becoming increasingly conservative. This is especially tru of the officers. In the last few years liberal universities produce only a handful of officers. This is becoming apparent in the statements of you and other liberal - all of whom seem to be completely ignorant in military affairs.

Posted by: Kahn [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 8, 2006 07:05 PM

Those who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat it....

After his arrival in Medina, Muhammad began to rob the caravans of Mecca. From Jihad: Stage Two: (First Instruction in Medina) - Defensive Fighting Permitted: [Several months after arrival in Medina the Muslims began looting the Meccan caravans passing through the area. (It is very hard to understand how someone claiming to be a prophet could adopt the carnal, pagan Arab practice of robbing the caravans of other tribes, call it "striving in the way of God" and then say that one fifth of the loot belongs to God!) That practice eventually resulted in their being attacked by the Quraish from Mecca in several battles, beginning with the battle of Badr in 624. At that time permission was given to defend themselves by fighting and killing.
*****


Following Muhammad's example of robbing and looting non-Muslim Meccan caravans, Muslims throughout history have robbed and looted non-Muslim civilizations.

NRO's Michael Novak wrote an important article yesterday about a famous historical naval battle, sparked in part by Turkish Muslim raids against Christian lands and peoples:

Remembering Lepanto: A battle not forgotten.
NRO, by Michael Novak

The future author of Don Quixote, Miguel de Cervantes, served on one of the Christian galleys in what he called the greatest naval sea battle in history and the most important to that time for the safety of Europe. The Turks had been massing an enormous fleet for an invasion of Italy. The preparations began to be reported on many months in advance. It was the year 1571 when that fleet was gathered near a port in Greece, not far from the Gulf of Lepanto.

For over a year, Pope Pius V had tried to alert the great powers of Europe to the coming menace.[..] Only Don Juan of Austria, the bastard son of the king of Spain, was stirred by the danger. Despite his youth, despite his modest standing, Don Juan sent out urgent appeals and eventually gathered a sturdy fleet, outfitted with new warfare technologies invented in the West and rapidly mass-produced by the fledgling ship-building and armament firms of what was later to be called “Western capitalism.” He gathered fleets from Venice and Genoa, from Spain, and from the Knights of Malta. In a deliberately preemptive strike, blessed by the pope, this small fleet set sail to catch the Turkish armada before it left the waters of Greece.

The Venetians, on the left flank of the battle line, were especially passionate. Not long before, the Turks had so battered an island port maintained by Venetians (and others) that the Venetian commander, Marcantonio Bragadino appealed for a truce. The Turks promised him and his subjects safe passage — and then took him prisoner, beat him, cut off his nose and ears, put a collar on him, and made him crawl like a dog before the conquering army. In a little cage, he was hoisted up on the mast of the galley so that all in the fleet and on land could see him. Then he was brought down flayed mercilessly, his skin carefully stripped from his body as he died (the skin was later stuffed with straw and sent off to Constantinople as a trophy). Thousands of Venetians and others were slaughtered on the spot, or driven off in captivity for service on Turkish galleys or in Turkish harems.

But other elements of the Christian fleets were also angry. For decades now, the Turks had used their near-supremacy in the Mediterranean to make constant raids on the Christian communities near to the sea, and hauled away young women and men for the harems, and stronger men for the galleys.

Indeed, many of the galley slaves pulling the oars of the Turkish fleet sailing proudly and confidently into the Gulf of Lepanto were Christians captured in these and other ways. [..] The two greatest naval forces ever assembled — 280 ships in the Turkish Armada, some 212 on the Christian side — came into each other’s sight on the brilliant morning of October 7. So confident was the Turkish admiral, Ali Pasha, that he sailed proudly at the center of his own Armada, bringing with him on vessels just to his rear his entire fortune, and even a part of his harem.

Historians tell us that all over Europe a pall fell. Few had hopes that the Christian fleet could avoid the doom that seemed to hang over Italy. The pope had urged all Christians to say the rosary daily on behalf of the brave crews on the Christian galleys.[..]

To make a long story short, Don Juan aimed his own galley directly at the heart of the Turkish armada, directly at the clearly colored sails of the Ali Pasha’s galley, with its great green flag, inscribed 28,000 times with the name of Allah in gold. The Venetian vessels sailed furiously into the Turkish right wing, and with the help of the revolt of the galley slaves collapsed that wing. Six of the largest Christian vessels had been outfitted with a platform elevated above normal levels on which rows of devastating cannons were arrayed. Blasts from these new cannons were withering, and within minutes sank dozens of Turkish ships. The sea, witnesses said, was covered with flailing sailors, floating turbans, pieces of wood and sail.

The passion for defending their own civilization against ruthless invaders also strengthened the muscles of those engaged in the close, bloody, violent hand-fighting when one vessel came alongside another. But it was mainly the new firepower of the smaller Christian fleet that quickly sank With their new fire power the smaller Christian fleet quickly sank galley after galley until, after not too many hours, the Turkish center also collapsed, as if cut through by a hot knife. The Admiral’s galley was captured, along with 240 more Turkish ships.[..]

The Christian victory was far more complete than anyone had dreamed. The victory seemed to many quite miraculous, and victory was immediately attributed to Our Lady Queen of the Rosary — soon to be called by a new title, Our Lady Queen of Victory. All over Europe, from city to town, church bells rang out continuously when news of the impressive victory arrived. Ever since, October 7 has been celebrated as a feast day by the Catholic Church.

Whole great rooms of palaces in southern Europe have been given over to immense paintings celebrating episodes in that epic battle. All Europe, historians recount, drew a deep breath of relief and gratitude. It was as if an oppressive cloud had been lifted, some wrote. G. K. Chesterton wrote a rousing epic poem about the great event, a magnificent treat to read to young children — and even for mature adults.

Since Osama bin Laden and others often cite these battles, for which he is still seeking revenge, it is not unwise for the people of the West to bear them in mind. Besides October 7, 1571 — the great victory by Jan Sobieski’s Polish calvary over the Turks outside the gates of Vienna on September 11-12, 1683 — deserves to be remembered. But there were also other great battles — some victories, some defeats — over that thousand-year period that still live in memory, or should.

Posted by: Freedom1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 8, 2006 07:19 PM

I'd have to agree with you, Mark.

The Polls were wrong in 2000... 2002... and 2004. The silent majority doesn't mess with the pollsters when they call...

Like you said... time will tell how this all comes out. My money is on our Party to lose some sets... but hang onto the House and Senate.

Good read my friend...
AubreyJ.........

Posted by: AubreyJ [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 8, 2006 07:21 PM

Aubrey,

Always good to keep in mind that the polls are brought to us by the "fake but accurate" MSM...

Posted by: Mark Noonan [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 8, 2006 08:19 PM

God bless George Bush!

Posted by: Ames Tiedeman at October 8, 2006 09:22 PM

Deleted - insults currently serving members of the United States Armed Forces.

Posted by: Willem van Oranje at October 8, 2006 04:16 PM

What a huge suprise!!!

Posted by: bearmanUSMC [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 8, 2006 09:51 PM

"they masses are joining because it's either that or a job at wendy's. what would you pick?"

Oh, Lenny, Lenny, you're a card. Did your boyfriend Squiggy put you up to this?


Posted by: 1H8L1BS [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 8, 2006 10:18 PM

"God bless George Bush!"

AMEN!

Jeremiah

Posted by: Jeremiah [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 8, 2006 10:44 PM

I keep pointing out that orange (and oranje) are really just yellow, with a little red thrown in.

Posted by: Almiranta [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 8, 2006 11:38 PM

Breaking: Ramadan Riots in Sweden

Tonight there were power shortages all over Sweden’s second largest city, Gothenburg. “Youth gangs” took the opportunity, spreading the European tradition of “Ramadan Riots.” Within an hour most schools and commercial centers in the north eastern suburbs were vandalized.

- It’s complete chaos in north eastern Gothenburg. “We’ve sent all available police units but there’s no way we can stop the vandalisation,” police spokesman Frank Karlsson tells gp.se.

- Several youth gangs are wandering about smashing windows and breaking into schools, malls, banks and a retirement center.

Posted by: Freedom1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 03:27 AM

"Always good to keep in mind that the polls are brought to us by the "fake but accurate" MSM..."

Actually, Fox News polls are showing the same trends ;unless they are now part of the evil MSM.

Posted by: Morphie [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 12:26 PM

Fox News poll had Kerry winning the election.

That being said, I expect the Dems will win the house and the GOP hangs on to the Senate

Posted by: Warriornation [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 02:09 PM

The Islamization of America is getting worse with each passing day. Local American governments are changing their laws to fit Islamic norms and Shari'a law. "Tolerance" for the misogynistic Islamic religion, has gone so far that Americans are now literally building walls around women.


Muslim woman feels watched by men in fitness studio, wall is built to appease her

DEARBORN, United States (AFP) - For some women, it can be a little creepy to have men watch them exercise at the gym. For Ammerah Saidi, it's a violation of her religious beliefs as a Muslim. So when her local gym started letting men work out on days that had previously been reserved for women only, Saidi complained.

At first, the management at the suburban Detroit Fitness USA balked at concerns that the women could be observed from the small area where men were allowed to exercise. But after Saidi presented a petition from over 200 members -- and the story hit the local news -- a wall was built so the women could exercise in privacy.

[..] Local governments with large Muslim populations have also begun to alter the rules to accommodate modesty restrictions. The Dearborn, Michigan school district instituted same-sex only swim classes in 1992 and a Michigan county changed its public swimming pool swimwear rules earlier this month to accommodate Muslim women who want to cover themselves fully.[..]

Those women will find a much more welcoming environment in the United States than in many other countries such as France which has banned female students from wearing head scarves in schools, said Imam Sayed Hassan Al-Qazwini of the Islamic Center of America in Dearborn, Michigan.

"America showed more tolerance about Muslim individuals preserving their identity including women wearing head scarves," he said. "It has become part of our national landscape and I am very grateful for that."

Posted by: Freedom1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 08:14 PM

I wonder why as a Christian I can not receive the same tollerant treatment? Do we have to become more radical?

Posted by: kjstrouble [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 09:18 PM

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