The first time I heard the phrase "October Surprise" was, I think, in 1988 - in that year, it related to the insane story that in 1980 then VP candidate Bush the Elder had flown to Paris to negotiate an agreement with the Iranians to hold the American hostages until after the election, thus ensuring Carter's defeat and Reagan/Bush's election. I don't recall all the details, but I know that it was pushed pretty seriously by Democrats in their attempt to derail the elder Bush's 1988 campaign for the White House. It was stupid from the start, but Democrats insisted that it be investigated because, well, because they needed something to hammer Bush with and truth doesn't matter when you're trying to defeat a Republican.
That was, I believe, the first time senior members of the Democratic Party signed on to a paranoid conspiracy theory in an attempt to defeat a Republican - but it wasn't the last. Until just this week, the most recent October Surprise theory was the 2004 effort to claim that President Bush already had bin Laden in custody and was holding him until the last week of the campaign before announcing his capture. The most recent, courtesy of former Democratic Senator Gary Hart, is that President Bush will launch a war against Iran in October in order to shore up support before the election:
...the president will speak on national television. He will say this: Iran is determined to develop nuclear weapons; if this happens, the entire region will go nuclear; our diplomatic efforts to prevent this have failed; Iran is offering a haven to known al Qaeda leaders; the fate of our ally Israel is at stake; Iran persists in supporting terrorism, including in Iraq; and sanctions will have no affect (and besides they are for sissies). He will not say: ...and besides, we need the oil.
Rather neat how Hart works in the ready stand-by in conspiracy theories, that we are actually going to fight Iran for oil. I have a few questions:
Where in God's name do we get these people from? How on earth did America wind up in 2006 with people who believe things less based on fact that children's fairy tales? I know we've sinned as a nation - but do we really deserve this?
It isn't so much that there might be military action against Iran - after all, those who read here regularly know that I think military action against Iran is an eventual necessity - but the fact that its tied up in domestic politics and, of course, is a war for oil. Who knows when it might happen - tomorrow, next month, next year. But do we have to get Democrats who will try to twist every possible event in to some sort of evil conspiracy on the part of President Bush. For crying out loud, Democrats - Chavez is wrong: President Bush isn't Satan.
Get a grip.
HAT TIP: Captain's Quarters
Posted by Mark Noonan at September 25, 2006 12:27 AM
Comments
Mark, I used to be a democrat, having been brought up in a democratic household in NJ. However, I fled that party many years ago and now consider myself a conservative. Just look who the dem partys heroes are -bill clinton, cindy sheehan, michael moore, jimmy carter, rosie o'donnal, castro, chavez, franken, kerry, howard dean. An assortment of lunatics.
Posted by: james allegro at September 25, 2006 01:00 AM
President Bush will launch a war against Iran in October in order to shore up support before the election
This is crazy. Considering the unpopularity of the present war/occupation of Iraq, the last thing Bush would do to increase support, if that's what he really cares about, would be to launch another war. After October passes without an attack against Iran, will Hart publicly admit that he was wrong? (Yeah, I know, don't hold my breath.)
Posted by: Bigfoot at September 25, 2006 09:02 AM
Kind of like Republicans accussing Clinton of "wagging the dog" when he went after bin Laden in '98?
Shows how seriously the republicans took OBL back then, eh?
Posted by: Tom Shipley at September 25, 2006 09:11 AM
Bigfoot
I was thinking the same thing. How intellectually vacant can these democrats be? They keep telling us how universally the Iraq war is hated so why in the world would Bush start another war? And to think that idiot ran for president.
Posted by:
CJ at September 25, 2006 09:28 AM
My favorite part about Bush 41 rumor was that he went to Paris in a SR-71 Blackbird, because he used to be in charge of the CIA.
Posted by: jbwbubba at September 25, 2006 11:21 AM
"Kind of like Republicans accussing Clinton of "wagging the dog" when he went after bin Laden in '98?"
Went after Bin Laden???!!!???
Huh??? ...which time?
Was it when he launched the daring multi-million dollar cruise missles strike into empty mud huts while having Halfbright alert the Paksitanis so no one would be hurt?
Or was it his bold missle strike on the asprin factory in the Sudan which took out the night watchman?
Ahhh yes...
Brave Brave Sir Bill, the Not-quite-so-brave-as-Sir-Ronaldus Magnus, who had nearly fought the Dragon of Afganistan, who had nearly stood up to the vicious Chicken of Mogadishu and who had personally wet himself at the Battle of Sudan.
Ahhhh Brave Brave Sir Bill...I can hear the minstrels stumming:
Bravely bold Sir Bill rode forth from Little Rock.
He was not afraid to die, O brave Sir Bill.
He was not at all afraid to be killed in nasty ways,
Brave, brave, brave, brave Sir BIll!
He was not in the least bit scared to be mashed into a pulp,
Or to have his eyes gouged out and his elbows broken,
To have his kneecaps split and his body burned away
And his limbs all hacked and mangled, brave Sir Bill!
His head smashed in and his heart cut out
And his liver removed and his bowels unplugged
And his nostrils raped and his bottom burned off
And his pen...
But as we all know:
Brave Sir Bill ran away,
Bravely ran away, away.
When danger reared its ugly head, he bravely turned his tail and fled.
Yes, brave Sir Bill turned about
And gallantly, he chickened out. Bravely taking to his feet,
He beat a very brave retreat,
Brave Brave sir Bill!
Posted by: phnxbmed at September 25, 2006 05:39 PM
Um, Tom, the wagging the dog reference for Billy boy was more for the Balkan bombing he started to deflect from the Monica problem. As for his going after OBL - he bombed an asprin factory, and hit a training camp OBL had already left. Really strong stuff.
Posted by: kjstrouble at September 25, 2006 07:23 PM
Brilliant Monty Python spoof!
Posted by: GOP 4 ME at September 26, 2006 01:08 AM
Please report any inappropriate comments to abuse (at) blogsforbush (dot) com. Be sure to include the title of the blog entry, the name of the commenter, and the text of the offending comment.
Post a comment
Mark, I used to be a democrat, having been brought up in a democratic household in NJ. However, I fled that party many years ago and now consider myself a conservative. Just look who the dem partys heroes are -bill clinton, cindy sheehan, michael moore, jimmy carter, rosie o'donnal, castro, chavez, franken, kerry, howard dean. An assortment of lunatics.
President Bush will launch a war against Iran in October in order to shore up support before the election
This is crazy. Considering the unpopularity of the present war/occupation of Iraq, the last thing Bush would do to increase support, if that's what he really cares about, would be to launch another war. After October passes without an attack against Iran, will Hart publicly admit that he was wrong? (Yeah, I know, don't hold my breath.)
Kind of like Republicans accussing Clinton of "wagging the dog" when he went after bin Laden in '98?
Shows how seriously the republicans took OBL back then, eh?
Bigfoot
I was thinking the same thing. How intellectually vacant can these democrats be? They keep telling us how universally the Iraq war is hated so why in the world would Bush start another war? And to think that idiot ran for president.
My favorite part about Bush 41 rumor was that he went to Paris in a SR-71 Blackbird, because he used to be in charge of the CIA.
"Kind of like Republicans accussing Clinton of "wagging the dog" when he went after bin Laden in '98?"
Went after Bin Laden???!!!???
Huh??? ...which time?
Was it when he launched the daring multi-million dollar cruise missles strike into empty mud huts while having Halfbright alert the Paksitanis so no one would be hurt?
Or was it his bold missle strike on the asprin factory in the Sudan which took out the night watchman?
Ahhh yes...
Brave Brave Sir Bill, the Not-quite-so-brave-as-Sir-Ronaldus Magnus, who had nearly fought the Dragon of Afganistan, who had nearly stood up to the vicious Chicken of Mogadishu and who had personally wet himself at the Battle of Sudan.
Ahhhh Brave Brave Sir Bill...I can hear the minstrels stumming:
Bravely bold Sir Bill rode forth from Little Rock.
He was not afraid to die, O brave Sir Bill.
He was not at all afraid to be killed in nasty ways,
Brave, brave, brave, brave Sir BIll!
He was not in the least bit scared to be mashed into a pulp,
Or to have his eyes gouged out and his elbows broken,
To have his kneecaps split and his body burned away
And his limbs all hacked and mangled, brave Sir Bill!
His head smashed in and his heart cut out
And his liver removed and his bowels unplugged
And his nostrils raped and his bottom burned off
And his pen...
But as we all know:
Brave Sir Bill ran away,
Bravely ran away, away.
When danger reared its ugly head, he bravely turned his tail and fled.
Yes, brave Sir Bill turned about
And gallantly, he chickened out. Bravely taking to his feet,
He beat a very brave retreat,
Brave Brave sir Bill!
Um, Tom, the wagging the dog reference for Billy boy was more for the Balkan bombing he started to deflect from the Monica problem. As for his going after OBL - he bombed an asprin factory, and hit a training camp OBL had already left. Really strong stuff.
Brilliant Monty Python spoof!