looks like the trolls have nothing to say about this!!!!

There must be 100 new Wal-Marts opening up across the midwest.

Wade

Bwahahahahahahaha!!!!

Seems like the consumer confidence and consumer spending flies in the face of the Donk leadership and their accomplices at the MSM mantra of a bad economy.

Gas prices down to an average of $2.81 and going south. By November gas will be between $2 and $2.50. Watch the moonbats call this a conspiracy of Big Oil to bail out the President.

Bwhahahahahahaha!

You moonbats are pathetic.

Yea, that's the ticket.

Reprinted from :
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/09/moving_the_goal.html

Beyond that, the details of the report are just fugly (citations in parens):

- The mix of job growth remains skewed toward low-paying industries;

- Weakness is most evident in the retail component -- which has stopped growing;

- Almost one-half of the rise occurred in the health and social assistance category -- generally low-paying jobs;

- Other sectors have not picked up the slack
(Joshua Shapiro, MFR);

- The pace of job creation has slowed dramatically.

2004: 175,000/mo
2005: 165,000/mo
2006: 140,000/mo
Past five months: 119,000/mo
(Steven A. Wood, Insight Economics)

- Manufacturing has lost more than three million jobs since 2000; Conditions remain poor;

- Prior recoveries at this point had created two million manufacturing jobs;

- Unemployment fell to 4.7 from 4.8% due to a large number of adults leaving the labor force (NiLF);

- The two-tiered labor market continues: The top quartile has it good; but for everyone else, the future is worrisome;

- For many workers, real incomes lag inflation;
(Peter Morici, Univ. of Maryland)

- Total labor input is growing very sluggishly in Q3, foreshadowing the continued softness in economic growth.
(Steven A. Wood, Insight Economics)

- The average work week is dropping (by 0.1 hours to 33.8 hours), even as productivity slows.

Yup, things are great all over.

Yea, that's the ticket.

Reprinted from :
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/09/moving_the_goal.html
"
Beyond that, the details of the report are just fugly (citations in parens):

- The mix of job growth remains skewed toward low-paying industries;

- Weakness is most evident in the retail component -- which has stopped growing;

- Almost one-half of the rise occurred in the health and social assistance category -- generally low-paying jobs;

- Other sectors have not picked up the slack
(Joshua Shapiro, MFR);

- The pace of job creation has slowed dramatically.

2004: 175,000/mo
2005: 165,000/mo
2006: 140,000/mo
Past five months: 119,000/mo
(Steven A. Wood, Insight Economics)

- Manufacturing has lost more than three million jobs since 2000; Conditions remain poor;

- Prior recoveries at this point had created two million manufacturing jobs;

- Unemployment fell to 4.7 from 4.8% due to a large number of adults leaving the labor force (NiLF);

- The two-tiered labor market continues: The top quartile has it good; but for everyone else, the future is worrisome;

- For many workers, real incomes lag inflation;
(Peter Morici, Univ. of Maryland)

- Total labor input is growing very sluggishly in Q3, foreshadowing the continued softness in economic growth.
(Steven A. Wood, Insight Economics)

- The average work week is dropping (by 0.1 hours to 33.8 hours), even as productivity slows.
"

Yup, things are great all over.

Once, again the intelligent designers are busy on your site. Sorry for the double post.

It must suck to be you 3 more years. To just be negative and miserable and a communist living in a free country like this.

I would hate waking up every day looking in the mirror with all of that hate inside. I'll pray for you.

:)

No surprise here.

(reprinted from Moonbat Slayer, Esq.)

"The Bush taxcuts have given us the best economy in American history"
(Joe Six-Pack, University of the American Patriot)

3yearsOld, your doom and gloom forcasting has been wrong for 6 straight years...don't let the door hit ya in the backside.

One has to wonder how the lunatics viewed 1997 to 2000 when it was soley propped by a .com boom.

This economy is based on actual manufacturing, home ownership, people buying and making things...it's not based on irrational exuberrance.

Yet I suspect 3moreyears and the rest of the Stalin brigade was all for it back then.

TMY, I've always looked at the main difference between Conservatives and Liberals as seeing the glass half full vs. half empty. Your glass contains nothing but air, and hot air at that. Warriornation and Nebraska describe you perfectly. You remind me of Joe Btfsplk. If you're as old as you say you are, you surely remember Joe. You are a sad, pathetic little creature who is in for a rude awakening come November 8th.

NM,

It's not my forcast. It's just an analysis of today's report which is touted so highly in the topic. You may disagree but please try to use some real data points and stop the childish name calling. Oops, I forgot, that's all you guys have at this point. Anyway, back to exile...

Testing new way to force post...

One more for the road,

Spook, I didn't used to or always feel this way and I've said all along my expectation is this will occur this fall into '07. You should also keep in mind that it's not just me who's predicting this, there are quite a few folks who watch this a great deal more than me who are saying it. This includes virtually all the major investment houses. I'll make a deal with you though, if none of this happens, I'll come back and say I was wrong. Fair enough?

It's also unfortunate to see you sink to the level of the name calling ranks so prevalent on this blog.

Once again, pathetic gloom and doom from economists with an agenda.

Manufacturing output reamins constant; "Given the rapid productivity growth in recent years, it's possible that manufacturing output remained constant despite the fall off in employment. Indeed, nominal manufacturing sector value added has increased since 2001." Economist James D. Hamilton UC-San Diego

The pace of job creation has slowed; but, you poor fool it is still increasing! More jobs, get it? Not less.

“Almost one-half of the rise occurred in the health and social assistance category -- generally low-paying jobs;” Generally? But, sweet simple 3more, the job creation is at an increased valuation from the current jobs in the market which, by the way has increased in remuneration by 7%. Think about it, more jobs, at a better rate; that’s bad news?

“Unemployment fell to 4.7 from 4.8% due to a large number of adults leaving the labor force (NiLF);” State your source for this absurd statement. The only ones leaving the work force are retirees and infirmed. My mother left the work force but she’s 87 and had a stroke. Do you still believe that the unemployment numbers are from unemployment claims? Poor fool, stop by BLS.gov and get an unbiased education. Quit listening to the agenda driven economists you cite.

"Total labor input is growing very sluggishly in Q3, foreshadowing the continued softness in economic growth. Steven A. Wood, Insight Economics)"
Do you know what you are quoting? The labor input should in principle be a measure of productive labor, and that using measures of total labor input may lead to misleading estimates of the time path of the Monetary Expression of Labor when the proportion of productive to unproductive labor is changing rapidly. Did you just cut-and-paste some g&d without reading it?

The average work week is dropping (by 0.1 hours to 33.8 hours), even as productivity slows.”
Uh, productivity is up.

I find your posts to be an example of dangerously uninformed, but you seem to understand the concepts. What's the deal? Are you just trying to get smacked down with each post, or do you genuinely believe the stuff you write? For every economist you cite, I can find five that will smack yours down, Investment houses are in the business of investments! We, in government fiscal analysis, are in the business of forecasting. C'mon, join us, tings aren't as bad as you pretend, and you'll spend the next five years predicting disaster only to wake up and find you've missed a golden opportunity.

Note to self; SPELLCHECK, knothead! Remember to use SPELLCHECK!

I'll make a deal with you though, if none of this happens, I'll come back and say I was wrong. Fair enough?

Fair enough.

It's also unfortunate to see you sink to the level of the name calling ranks so prevalent on this blog.

As you note, I don't normally sink to that level, but I'd be willing to bet, if I went back through the archives of "this blog" that I could find a few examples of you calling others far worse than "sad, pathetic little creatures." I just find it hard to comprehend how anyone can spend as much time as you do researching and dwelling on the negative, especially since there is so much about which to be optimistic, and most of what you complain about is totally beyond your control.

Ok Bane,

I'll take your challenge. Here's my first:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/142759/

Go ahead, read it and give me your five rebuttal articles.

Spook,

Yes, you could probably find some examples but I'll bet the threads don't start that way, it just ends up there after dealing with the folks as above.

I don't spend time dwelling/researching the negative. I do spend time trying to glean what may really be happening in the world, outside of MSM and government propaganda. I was also caught with my pants down on the last bubble and simply refuse to be caught again. Yes it's beyond my control to stop or change things but it's not beyond my control to be prepared and possibly take advantage of what arrises. I also don't view my postings on these matters as complaints, merely observations. You may read them as my being negative but I would ask you; if they turn out to be true, would I still be considered negative?

Test to flush cache - hope it works.

Just as an aside, it's very interesting for you guys to call me negative when more than 75% of this blog is focused on the terrorists, WMD, nuclear Iran, Islamofascists, clash of civilisations and other such fear mongering. If you were to take your own advice, none of this should bother you as it is out of your control.

Oh brother, Roubini.
Okay, housing market, the housing market is slowing, no doubt about that, but what you are not taking into account is that even slowint to a modest increase over last year that would still mean that it’s the best market in the past 50 years! Roubini has some valid points but, he’s wrong because;

1) A national average fixed mortgage on a national average price home expressed as a percentage of the median income for families of four is at levels we haven't seen since 1989.
2) Real long-term interest rates have come down, even as thelenders have used creative financing to allow for mortgage to debt ratio to exceed 50% (in some cases 60%) the increases in the economy forestall any detrimental effects.
3) The valuation of unsold houses is higher than median, not median or below; homebuilders are banking on the economy staying strong and luxury homes continuing to be strong even as median homes sales slow down.
4) The cyclical downturn historically can be as severe as 60%; currently you are facing a 20% downturn.
5) The 1994 market problem Roubini cites was accompanied with inflationary pressures; the Fed has (wisely) stopped raising rates in an effort to forestall inflation and found that (surprise) the inflationary pressures were not what the Fed had previously thought. Without these pressures the housing market can experience another soft landing.
6) Finally, even as the residential housing market softens; the non-residential market is heating up again. For all the new suburbs that have been created, the infrastructure to support those colonies requires a real estate market that corresponds with businesses.
Roubini looks at the housing market in a vacuum; the balance of the economy is doing as good as or better than any indicators of my lifetime, and that includes the Affluent 60’s.

No one, not even the now famous Roubini can predict what the economy as a whole will do as the housing market slows, but neither you nor I will buy a new home every month for the remainder of the year so the market effect is much slower than you are envisioning.
Try also reading Dave Altig at Macroblog or Spencer England, try Menzie Chin.
Statistically, don't cite numbers you cannot substantiate; 70% of this blog is blank screen, signatures or advertising. Once your numbers are suspect, your argument is also suspect.

But, I know what you mean about the economy dumping those manufacturing jobs; I wish Bush would do something about that.

I remember when I was young, my dad worked for the City of Chicago, polishing the cannon in front of the library. I still remember the joy in his eyes the day he finally saved up enough money to buy a cannon and go into business for himself.

Then, my poor brother, worked as a fireman on a steam locomotive. All day shoveling coal from the tender to the fire, then one day they told him his job had been outsourced to a fireman in India! Poof, like that his whole world changed; now he just waits for the BLS to call him and ask if he’s working so he can tell them to count him as “out of the workforce!” Sad, very sad.

Bane,

While I appreciate you may believe what you say, you claimed that you would, what was it, oh yea, show me 5 that would "smack down" for every one I post. Please send me to these authoritative opinions as you claimed you could/would. In other words, you've kind of agreed with Roubini on some of his assessments. You don't aggree with all of his conclusions but have acknowledged the issues. That's not what I call a smack down. So again, I'm waiting for my 5 smack downs.

Your 70% comment is funny but doesn't address my observation. I suppose the answer is self evident.

Economy soars!

I blame the Bush Administration.
:P

Economy soars!

I blame the Bush Administration.
:P

Economic Eeyore,
Obviously you didn't actually read my post.

Try also reading Dave Altig at Macroblog or Spencer England, try Menzie Chin, try http://www.bignose.org/blog/index.php?/archives/8-Mortgages-and-income.html, and James D. Hamilton.
All have pointed out Roubini's flaws. In order for you to realize you've been smacked, you have to have a grasp of the issues Roubini raised; you haven't, and that's evident by your statement "you've kind of agreed with Roubini on some of his assessments" No, I cited the same set of facts and challenged his assessments based on additional information not included in his article.

And your 70% is without merit; you haven't quantified your research that substantiates that %, Just because you say it doesn't make it true.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going on vacation; I'll be in San Francisco hurling insults at the Islamo-idiots protesting in the streets, and I have to get to the cleaners to make sure I have my Star of David shirt looking extra spiffy for the trip!

bane,

Like I said, I'll look at the posts. I would add the following, I said to Spook that if I am wrong, I'll come back and say so. How 'bout you?

Your 70% answer is non-responsive. Maybe we're talking about something different so I'll pose the question again.

Just as an aside, it's very interesting for you guys to call me negative when more than 75% of this blog is focused on the terrorists, WMD, nuclear Iran, Islamofascists, clash of civilisations and other such fear mongering. If you were to take your own advice, none of this should bother you as it is out of your control.

Is your argument with the actual number? Of course this is an estimate but I think the general question is valid.

I just did a quick calculation on the threads on B4B for the month of August, and just under 30% are on the subjects you listed. The fear mongering and hate posts in answer to those threads are mostly liberal trolls responding to the good news the Conservatives share.
Factually, every thread about economics and the economy is positive, and forward looking; every one of the liberals’ posts in those threads is negative and defeatist, except Georgia Frog who posts positive with reservations; I can respect that.

can't respond, the site's not working.

No 3moreyears, it's not negative to focus on WMD, terrorism, etc....it's reality. You guys think you can't effect it and that's YOUR PROBLEM with leadership.

We have proven you CAN effect it. You guys don't want to get your hands dirty or get a little blood on you. We will do what we have to do and deal with WMD, deal with terrorism, deal with the evils in the world.

The lefties refuse to do that...instead falling to the exact same line you just used..."there's nothing you can control or do about it." BULL!

There is something you can do about it!!!

Bane,

Are you freaking kidding me! I went to all of the sites. What did they say? They're nervous. They may be more optimistic but they are saying the SAME, DAMN, THING. I'll quote a few:

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2006/08/more_thoughts_o.html

"Sure looks like a downturn to me."

I certainly hope that's what happens. But will it? I don't know."

http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/

"Look. There is plenty of cause for concern, and plenty of uncertainty about the outlook."

http://www.bignose.org/blog/

"I think there is general agreement that the US current account deficint must decline substantially, that an acceptable slowdown in US growth will not be enough to achieve that adjustment, and therefore that a major currency reallignment will be necessary in which the dollar declines relative to the euro, the yen, the RMB and other currencies. It is not clear what will trigger this exchange rate adjustment or how fast it will be, but I have little doubt that it is coming."

That's your smack down? Like I said, none of this may happen but there are quite a few, including your "smack down" sources that are worried about this. Am I wrong here? Did you give me links to the "negative liberal" sites by mistake? What kind of crap are you peddling? I hope you don't get paid for your analysis.

Site won't let me post my original(maybe too long who knows?), bottom line Bane, you're wrong. All your listed sites say the same thing I am. Sorry but true.

Here we go in chunks

Part 1)
Bane,

Are you freaking kidding me! I went to all of the sites. What did they say? They're nervous. They may be more optimistic but they are saying the SAME, DAMN, THING. I'll quote a few:

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2006/08/more_thoughts_o.html

"Sure looks like a downturn to me."

I certainly hope that's what happens. But will it? I don't know."

http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/

"Look. There is plenty of cause for concern, and plenty of uncertainty about the outlook."

Part 2)

http://www.bignose.org/blog/

"I think there is general agreement that the US current account deficint must decline substantially, that an acceptable slowdown in US growth will not be enough to achieve that adjustment, and therefore that a major currency reallignment will be necessary in which the dollar declines relative to the euro, the yen, the RMB and other currencies. It is not clear what will trigger this exchange rate adjustment or how fast it will be, but I have little doubt that it is coming."

Part 3)

That's your smack down? Like I said, none of this may happen but there are quite a few, including your "smack down" sources that are worried about this. Am I wrong here? Did you give me links to the "negative liberal" sites by mistake? What kind of crap are you peddling? I hope you don't get paid for your analysis.

Warrior,

Reminder:

(nt)

Part 4)

Give me a break, are you serious? My point was that while you call me negative, you guys are spinning the end of the world as we know it on a regular basis. Whether it's 75, 70 or 30%, it's still there, thus your condemnation of my dark forbodings is disingenuous. That's all. You can admit that or not, but it doesn't make it not true.

Part 4)

Give me a break, are you serious? My point was that while you call me negative, you guys are spinning the end of the world as we know it on a regular basis. Whether it's 75, 70 or 30%, it's still there, thus your condemnation of my dark forbodings is disingenuous. That's all. You can admit that or not, but it doesn't make it not true.

Just another link for the hard of hearing from business week, that ultra liberal rag:

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_37/b4000001.htm

Thank goodness we have new those bankruptcy laws in place to handle just such a possibility. Ready or not, here it comes...

A few possible reasons for this non-responsiveness:

1) can't because the site is broken
2) everyone's gone , after all it is Friday
3) Bane's on vacation like he said, then posted more
4) there's really no answer, I'm right and you guys are wrong and are embarrassed to say any more. Or should I say in the words of Bane, "Smack Down?"

I'll assume 4, because like all authoritarian folk you can't handle the truth and thus would rather not respond as opposed to being proven wrong. So which is it?

128,000 new jobs. 4.7 percent unemployment rate, 5.6 percent GDP growth, deficit dropping, gas prices dropping. 5 years without USA attacked. Dems pissed.

You're rather petty for an aging boomer. Have you always been an ass?

And why did you never learn to spell?

Keefer, what a wonderful comeback. I suppose you never mistype or mispell. Good for you. And the answer is yes, I've probably always been an ass. How 'bout you? Always been a d$#@head?