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August 14, 2006
Misunderstanding From a Well-Informed Man

This from John Podhoretz over at NRO's The Corner:

The Arabs, said the Israeli politician Abba Eban, "never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity." The news this morning that the Hezbollah ministers in the Lebanese cabinet have said they're keeping their weapons in South Lebanon — despite the language of the U.N. ceasefire — may be the most recent fulfillment of Eban's dictum. All Hezbollah has to do is keep quiet and smile and it will not be disarmed by the Lebanese army or the "robust international force" or anybody else. If it chooses this kind of open, in-your-face provocation, the ceasefire dies, Israel goes all-out and Hezbollah is mortally wounded.

This works from the assumption - all too common in conservative and pro-Israel sources - that the UN cease fire deal is a bad thing. Its not. Everyone: Please take out a map of Lebanon and trace your finger along the course of the Litani river. The IDF is firmly in place along that line. Where does Hezbollah go?

They are trapped - and if this cease fire deal is finally sunk, then it will be due to Hezbollah's Iranian masters deciding that fighting to the death in southern Lebanon is preferrable to stacking arms and going in to captivity - this being especially easy as the Mullahs in Iran aren't, you know, actually setting themselves up to be martyrs for Allah...

The deal is a good deal - kudos to President Bush, Secretary Rice, PM Olmert and Ambassador Bolton for managing to get a heads we win, tails you lose resolution.

Posted by Mark Noonan at August 14, 2006 12:53 AM



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Comments

Like I said elsewhere, my main qualm is that Hezbollah uses this as a time out to re-arm with something bigger and better from Iran or Syria (most likely purchased from Russia or China).

Hezbollah violating a cease-fire is a given, it's a just a matter of when and with what.

Posted by: Lew Waters [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 14, 2006 03:41 AM

What ever happened to not negotiating with terrorists? This pathetic UN "cease-fire" allows Hezbollah to re-arm and reload. Hezbollah is a terrorist organization. Hezbollah must be eradicated.

Posted by: Freedom1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 14, 2006 04:04 AM

I disagree with your assessment Mark. In war, when you stop the attack, lose the initiative and fail to exploit your advantages, you will surely lose. Hezbollah is a client force of Iran and Syria that must be constantly supplied and provisioned by those countries. This "truce" allows Hezbollah to regroup, rearm and continue to build popular support within Lebanon and the rest of the Muslim world. No . . . this is not good, and it will get worse.

Posted by: rplat [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 14, 2006 06:31 AM

I disagree with your assessment Mark. In war, when you stop the attack, lose the initiative and fail to exploit your advantages, you will surely lose. Hezbollah is a client force of Iran and Syria that must be constantly supplied and provisioned by those countries. This "truce" allows Hezbollah to regroup, rearm and continue to build popular support within Lebanon and the rest of the Muslim world. No . . . this is not good, and it will get worse.

Posted by: rplat [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 14, 2006 06:32 AM

I just can't see the value of this 'cease fire', when Hezbollah is not going to disarm, nobody is going to disarm them, and they get a chance to fire off more rockets and kill more Israelis (and Lebanese as well, by hiding them in civilian homes, etc).

OK, so Hezbollah will get a disapproving editorial in the NYT (but of course for 'balance', Israel will be blamed as well). So 'Bleeping' What? That'll deter Hezbollah from killing more Israelis in what way? Hezbollah's attacks caused the Israelis to fight back. The terrorists were in the wrong, but clever Photoshopping and cooperation from Reuters, AP, CNN, etc, made the Israelis look like the bad guys.

So Hezbollah gets another chance to shoot off their Iranian-supplied rockets, and this time Tel Aviv is leveled. My, that'll make the MSM go "Tsk, tsk, What a shame...But the Israelis brought it upon themselves".

Posted by: Hermie [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 14, 2006 08:08 AM

Mark

The only way this cease-fire is a good thing is if it doesn't hold. Our insistence on this cease-fire is completely inconsistent with our suppsoed position on the war on terror. We have been blinded by the fact that this government in Lebanon has been democratically elected and are doing everything in our power to prop it up, despite clear actions and statements on its part that it supports Hezbollah.

What is likely to happen is that after this handover happens, things will return to the status quo. And the iinternational community will not condone Israeli action unless it is in response to a significant provocation. A new build-up by Hezbollah will eb ignored by the interntioanl community, much as it has been over the past 6 years.

While I put most of the blame on the ISraeli for agreeing to this, I think we are making a huge mistake by voting for this resolution. We have just emboldened Syria and Iran and every other terrorist group. In short, we blinked.

Posted by: SBulka [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 14, 2006 08:34 AM

Hezbollah leader declares victory:

Nasrallah said Hezbollah "came out victorious in a war in which big Arab armies were defeated (before)."

He also said now was not the time to debate the disarmament of his guerrilla fighters.

Israel spent a month in Lebanon and accomplished little. So says Nasrallah. Israel says that they killed about half of the hard-core fighters and destroyed their infrastructure. But the worrisome part is that Nasrallah's influence stopped any discussion in the Lebanese cabinet about disarming Hezbollah. They will not be disarmed. We will see war there again, and soon.

Posted by: Reverend Scaramonga [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 14, 2006 02:38 PM

American Thinker says:

The problem with Lebanon in the modern world is what Bernard Lewis has observed – the Muslim/Arab culture is not built around nation states, but rather around religious sects. Lebanon does not exist so much as it is a collection of Maronites, Druze, Shia Muslims, Sunni Muslims, etc. Hizbullah, the avatar of the Shia, is now in ascendance. It is pointless to expect that the “government of Lebanon” is a force separate from the strongest group, which is currently Hizbullah. So to have the “army of Lebanon” disarm Hizbullah is a form of words that means nothing – it has no content. The fact that we and the Israelis would accept such an empty form shows our weakness. And the other side will not miss that.

I agree.

Posted by: Reverend Scaramonga [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 14, 2006 03:22 PM

JERUSALEM (AP) Israeli army says 10 rockets of the type used by Hezbollah have exploded in south Lebanon.

Posted by: Freedom1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 14, 2006 08:40 PM

AP: "Rockets hit Lebanon despite cease-fire"

"Hezbollah guerrillas fired at least 10 Katyusha rockets that landed in southern Lebanon".

Posted by: Freedom1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 14, 2006 08:52 PM

AP: "Rockets hit Lebanon despite cease-fire"

"Hezbollah guerrillas fired at least 10 Katyusha rockets that landed in southern Lebanon".

Posted by: Freedom1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 14, 2006 08:55 PM

Is "Katyusha" Arabic for "bottle"?

Posted by: Ricorun [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 14, 2006 09:07 PM

Rico

Katyusha rockets are Russian technology. There is an article on this at wikipedia.

Posted by: B.Poster [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 15, 2006 07:28 PM

This ceas fire came to soon. From the beginning, I was not concerned about the IDF's ability to cripple Hezbollah. My concern was would the world community and the US give them enough time to do it. The US may have run diplomatic interference for Israel for about a month, however, even under ideal circumstances the IDF would have needed at least three months and probably more like six months. I'm very disappointed in the American government here. The Arabs likely threatened to wield their oil weapon against the US and the west and Israel has a few katyushas lobbed at them and the US, Israel, and the broader western world turn tail and run.

If there is a silver lining, this was only one round in a long war. They will be back. I had a similar experience once, I faced a tough obstacle. Initially I surrendered. I got another chance at it and I stuck it out to a succesful conclusion the second time. Hopefully the US and Israeli governments will show more back bone next time.

Posted by: B.Poster [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 15, 2006 07:34 PM

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