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July 24, 2006
Perhaps They Don't All Want to Die for Islam?

Interesing tid-bit of info in this Jerusalem Post story:

Hizbullah is organized along military lines, with regional commands in southern, northern and central Lebanon. The unit in the south, called the "Katyusha Unit" by the IDF, consists of some 1,000 fighters who have been responsible for most of the rocket attacks on communities north of Acre and Amiad.

The unit has been able to recruit reserves, but MI has noticed that it has run into difficulty convincing members of the terror group who reside in northern Lebanon to travel south to participate in the fighting. (emphasis added)

The report is mostly about Hizbollah's dwindling missile supply and the inabiltiy of Hizbollah to re-supply over the bridges bombed by the Isreaeli air force - but I thought the quoted bit far more important.

There is a limit - people, aside from a few fools and fanatics, will not sacrifice themselves for a lost cause. Unless Hizbollah, Syria and Iran can show that they will carry the fight to Israel, there will be an increasing inability to recruit new sacrificial lambs for the South Lebanon slaughter whcih is shaping up.

For Hizbollah, it is looking more and more like a choice between withdrawing and being destroyed in place.

Posted by Mark Noonan at July 24, 2006 11:43 AM



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Comments

"For Hizbollah, it is looking more and more like a choice between withdrawing and being destroyed in place."

--Mark, that's the point man, this isn't going to last very long, what happens when the fight is over, and Israel realizes that Hezzbollah has re-assimiliated back into the population? What exactly have they accomplished, other than making the future recruitment that much easier? They aren't going to re-occupy the South, and we have seen just how useful UN troops are at the job; So what is next? NATO? Taking the fight to the whole of Lebanon?

Posted by: Third Eye Open [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 12:11 PM

Ol' Brown Eye, pointing out the utter hopelessness of everything. At least he's consistently a defeatist.

Posted by: Reverend Scaramonga [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 12:17 PM

Rev,

I am merely being a realist here. When the guerillas get tired of jumping out of bunkers to fight the Israelis, and blend back into the population as a whole, what is Israel going to do then?

What politcal or military outcome would prove advantageous? the options suck, to be quit honest with you; Occupation or Genocide?

Posted by: Third Eye Open [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 12:31 PM

TEO, I think a pincer movement to capture the whole area would be best. Give them no escape.

Does anyone else see a parallel with the VC Tet Offensive in '67? That offensive worked strategically - but decimated the Viet Cong as a fighting force forever. When the North did move in a few years later they did not have to contend with "local" leadership.

Posted by: Kahn [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 01:00 PM

What the heck is a sustainable cease-fire? We all know what a cease-fire is and what a truce is, but it appears that the bush administration has invented some new category. Probably like bush inventing "signing statements", that the ABA said were unconstitutional today. Does bush do anything legally? Peace

Posted by: steve at July 24, 2006 01:05 PM

What politcal or military outcome would prove advantageous?

The Hezbollah may try to "blend in" but the population might not let them. They are tired of being in the middle of this fight. They are just as likely as not to rat them out.

Also, Hezbollah is useless without weapons. Their supply from Syria and Iran has been cut off. If the Israelis come into the country in force, and they ferret out the weapons caches and destroy them, nobody cares what happens to the idiots with the yellow flags. Of course that would mean that nothing could be allowed to flow into Lebanon from known weapons suppliers. The vaunted "multinational peacekeeping force" can perform that function. And if they don't, Israel will take care of it, just like they're doing right now.

As far as Hezbollah is concerned, I would not shed a tear if the Israelis killed every last one of them. Same for Hamas. No need to occupy - just destroy the attacking jackals or pull their teeth or both.

Posted by: Reverend Scaramonga [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 01:22 PM

Kahn,

the difference is that you aren't fighting a country where half of the population is against the other half, you can't tell the difference between a southern lebanese and a northern lebanese, not to mention the fact we can't carry the war to Syria, like we did with Cambodia and Laos.

I still don't see any way that Israel is going to actually route Hezbollah out, they obviously aren't stupid enough to just face them head-on, eventually once they inflict all the damage they can on the northern-bound Israeli forces, they will blend back into the populations, and react to the Israel.

Posted by: Third Eye Open [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 01:26 PM

Rev,

Your hypothesis is based on the idea that the populations of central and northern Lebanon hate Hezbollah more than they hate Israel-the-occupier/attacker.

If they search & destroy, then fall back to their own land, how long before we are right back in the position we are in now, with little or no concern for what is being shipped into the country. I mean short of a permanent Israeli blockade, how do they stop this situation happening again in 5 years? How do you make the government take responsibility for Hezbollah, and make the population not sympathize with them after Israel has flattened Bierut following the 20 years it took to rebuild it?

I don't like all these "what-ifs", I want to know what Israel is going to do to solve the issue, and undercut the Hezbollah moral support through the ME, not how they plan to flatten more civilian homes, and blow-up more ambulances.

Posted by: Third Eye Open [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 01:40 PM

Your hypothesis is based on the idea that the populations of central and northern Lebanon hate Hezbollah more than they hate Israel-the-occupier/attacker.

No it isn't. My hypothesis is based on the idea that Lebanon would rather not have Israeli tanks clanking around in Beirut and elsewhere. And that they'd just as soon not endure more bombing from Israeli aircraft - and those bunker-busters? They have to be pretty scary. The Lebanese are slowly coming to the realization that Hezbollah is not doing them any favors by attracting this attention from Israel. The "out" for the Lebanese is likely that they will point out that Hezbollah is uninvited, unwelcome, and didn't even bother to coordinate their last action against Israel with them. And if they truly believed that Hezbollah would be defeated, they'd be the first ones to cheer it.

If they search & destroy, then fall back to their own land, how long before we are right back in the position we are in now, with little or no concern for what is being shipped into the country.

There's that "we're powerless why try" attitude you permeate. If we want to stop Hezbollah from getting weapons to re-arm in Lebanon, it can be done. Especially with Lebanese support - and they would be motivated to help. They are virtual prisoners in their own country and would love to get rid of the Iranian proxy force.

I don't like all these "what-ifs", I want to know what Israel is going to do to solve the issue, and undercut the Hezbollah moral support through the ME, not how they plan to flatten more civilian homes, and blow-up more ambulances.

I think the answer is to defeat Hezbollah, give Lebanon a chance to stand on its own two feet, and offer any and all help we and Israel can provide to keep them out. A little harsher would be to mount a full-scale military invasion, kill or imprison all Hezbollah members, and then warn their supporters that any attempt to re-constitute these terrorists would be considered an act of war and responding to it accordingly.

Posted by: Reverend Scaramonga [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 01:58 PM

TEO,
Quit beating around the bush...what do YOU think needs to happen to stop Hamas and Hezzbollah aggression?

Give it to us by the numbers what should be done and by who.

Come on, get it off your chest.

Posted by: Nebraska Militia [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 01:59 PM

Just heard on the news that some of the Hezbollah units are shouting commands to each other in Farsi. Iran, start digging your shelters...

Posted by: Reverend Scaramonga [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 01:59 PM

Rev,

"My hypothesis is based on the idea that Lebanon would rather not have Israeli tanks clanking around in Beirut and elsewhere."

--I still see this at best as 50-50 chance, the bombing and the recent history of Jewish occupation might lead many groups, including christians in the north to see Hezbollah as an intermediary 'lesser of two evils'.

"and they would be motivated to help. They are virtual prisoners in their own country and would love to get rid of the Iranian proxy force."

--The theory still balances on a single question, can we persuade the rest of Lebanon to see Israel as a liberator instead of attacker? I sure hope they do a better job of winning hearts and minds than we have done in Iraq.

"I think the answer is to defeat Hezbollah"

--Hezbollah didn't get created in a vacuum. The underlying emotions from the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory, and the Golan Heights is going to continue to be a stick in the craw of all the ME nations. Keep in mind that the mob rules most ME countries, the governments have only tenious holds over power, until the next strong-man steps up. One thing that really pisses off Arabs is watching a western force come in an appear to put its boot on the neck of other Arabs. Flattening more of Lebanon to prove some point will do little to stop Iran or Syria or whomever from being the next to back-channel fund groups like Hezbollah so that they can placate the 'street', you don't solve the problem, you just delay the next offensive.


Posted by: Third Eye Open [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 02:25 PM

TEO,
You make a great case for taking out Syria and Iran.

It's good to see your are finally coming to the reality of who is the real sponsors of terrorism and the only way to stop it is to kill em' all.

At last you are taking a firm stand on something and staying away from the wishy-washy, fli-flopping ways of your lib comrades.

/s

Posted by: Nebraska Militia [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 02:51 PM

Nebraska,

If you're salivating at the thought of sending your daughter to fight Iran, then I can only pray that she got her father's brains.

Posted by: Third Eye Open [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 02:53 PM

I still see this at best as 50-50 chance

I guess that's progress on your part...

the bombing and the recent history of Jewish occupation might lead many groups, including christians in the north to see Hezbollah as an intermediary 'lesser of two evils'.

I am amazed at how sometimes you can slide so effortlessly into high comedy. Christians thinking they're safe with Islamic terrorists? Hahahaha!

The theory still balances on a single question, can we persuade the rest of Lebanon to see Israel as a liberator instead of attacker? I sure hope they do a better job of winning hearts and minds than we have done in Iraq.

Ever hear of Maslow's hierarchy of needs? A refresher

5. Actualization
4. Status (esteem)
3. Love/belonging
2. Safety
1. Physiological (biological needs)

People will satisfy these starting from #1 and moving up to #5 but each must be satisfied before moving to the next one. In terms of this conflict and the situation in Lebanon, they can be rephrased like this:

5. Standing Tall in the Community of Nations
4. True Independent Democracy and Self Rule
3. Hearts and Minds
2. Not being killed by bombs and/or Hezbollah
1. Breathing, water, food

Once they figure out they can still breath and eat and drink, they will next turn to safety issues. There is where the calculation will be made as to which direction they will go. They can miscalculate for sure, but if they're really concerned about safety, they will realize where the safe path is leading. And next, only after they've satified #1 and #2 will they turn to #3, the hearts and minds issue.

I think they will quickly see at level 2 where their future safety lies and make the right choices.

Hezbollah didn't get created in a vacuum.

Unless Iran is Farsi for vacuum.

The underlying emotions from the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory, and the Golan Heights is going to continue to be a stick in the craw of all the ME nations.

No doubt. What is hoped is that they will realize that getting their own cities flattened and their "martyrs" killed by the thousands will not get their land back. Then they will eschew terrorism, realizing its failure as a tactic that will ever get them what they desire. At that point THEY will have satisfied #2 above and can move on.

Flattening more of Lebanon to prove some point will do little to stop Iran or Syria or whomever from being the next to back-channel fund groups like Hezbollah so that they can placate the 'street', you don't solve the problem, you just delay the next offensive.

True. That is why we will eventually (sooner rather than later if we are smart) have to deal with Iran. Syria is a joke and is trying to get out of this cycle as we discuss this. They have realized that Iran is no future for them.

Posted by: Reverend Scaramonga [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 02:55 PM

Rev,

"Christians thinking they're safe with Islamic terrorists?"

--I know it seems funny, but remind yourself of who is dropping bunker busters on their neighbors. Revenge, much like politics is all local.

"Ever hear of Maslow's hierarchy of needs"

--I knew I liked you for a reason, only a curmudgeonly old Squid would rattle-off psycobabble like Maslow. LOL

I hated this 'transcendency' BS, it has an obvious flaw which seemed to permeate the theory. Some people self-actualize in negative fashions.

Let's look at #2, shall we? The Lebanese aren't scared of Hezbollah turning their rockets on their towns, they are scared of Israel flattening them, so there presents a "leakage" from model, the question I keep asking, but i don't think you want/can answer is: How does Israel prove to the wider ME/Lebanon that they are less of a threat to security than Hezbollah...it's a tough sell, if not down right impossible, based on the very nature of who they are..."THEM"

"Then they will eschew terrorism, realizing its failure as a tactic that will ever get them what they desire"

--I think that recent history speaks to the contrary of your position, Northern Ireland is the most glaring example.

" That is why we will eventually (sooner rather than later if we are smart) have to deal with Iran."

--Rally-point Alpha, eh?

I don't think our opinion will ever intersect on this one, you can't provide a good enough argument to make me believe that an all-out war with Iran somehow makes for a peaceful future. We are going to need some SERIOUS social/religious/political cover from moderate ME nations, we cannot afford to go this alone if it ends up being the only option. So one way or the other, diplomacy is going to have to be our #1 weapon, before we start thinking about bombing and pre-emptive attack.

Posted by: Third Eye Open [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 03:21 PM

You know, I don't really think that Hizbullah is only a terrorist group. In fact, they deliver more social services to the people of Lebanon than the Lebanese government itself.

It seems to me that Hizbullah is more in charge of lebanon than its government, and with the Lebanese PM's statement that he would side with the terror group if Israel invaded, it seems to me that this is not going to be easy at all.

So...

Let's just let Israel bomb the hell out of the south. Let Hizbulla reap what they have sewn.

Posted by: Georgia Frawg [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 03:22 PM

I know it seems funny, but remind yourself of who is dropping bunker busters on their neighbors. Revenge, much like politics is all local.

Sure. The Islamic terrorist Hezbollah bear no ill will to Christians. That'll fly.

Some people self-actualize in negative fashions.

If that was their vision...that is what will happen. Sorta like Democrats, don't you think?

Let's look at #2

What you fail to understand is that the Lebanese people understand WHY those bombs are falling. They realize that Hezbollah is attacking Israel and then using them as human shields. They are realizing that Hezbollah doesn't care one bit about them execpt as a shield from Israeli bombs and bullets.

How does Israel prove to the wider ME/Lebanon that they are less of a threat to security than Hezbollah

That will not be done by talking, at least not at first. First must come the destruction of Hezbollah. Then they can explain to Lebanon how to avoid future destruction and garner financial aid and trade. They can point to Egypt for example.

I think that recent history speaks to the contrary of your position, Northern Ireland is the most glaring example.

I guess I don't follow. If you mean that every nutjob with a rifle or grenade being wiped out is the standard, that's not possible this side of mushroom clouds. But they are not supermen. There is a "critical mass" below which the whole thing will fall apart.

I don't think our opinion will ever intersect on this one, you can't provide a good enough argument to make me believe that an all-out war with Iran somehow makes for a peaceful future.

I didn't suggest that. That's the funny thing about you, that jumping to conclusions thing. My vision for how to deal with Iran is a two-fold process. First, the application of massive and massively destructive force to the muclear and other military resources in Iran. And remembering that it hasn't been that long since Iran was a very cosmopolitan city not unlike European metropolises like Madrid (where I once lived) or Rome, a concerted effort to reach all those people in Iran who want their old country and way of life back. Once the nuke threat is history, and the lack of any Iraning military capability is exposed, the Iranians will have the chance to tip the current regime over. Failing that, at least we'll have no nuke threat - my main concern.

Another thing to consider, Iran, North Korea, and Syria are three of the most isolated and despised nations on the planet and not just by us. They are the ones who need to start convincing hearts and minds, but my guess is the screaming coming from their leaders isn't accomplishing much.

We are going to need some SERIOUS social/religious/political cover from moderate ME nations

We are getting more each day. The Saudis are quietly on board. Iraq will end up our ally. Jordan is moderate. Syria is a big questiom mark and looks to be maneuvering to get free of control by Iran. We can offer them a way out.

we cannot afford to go this alone if it ends up being the only option.

Depends on what you mean by "this." Removing nuclear threats - we can do that alone. Retaliating with massive force if attacked by terrorists - we can do that. Transforming the ME into a place where the rule of law trumps religious fanatacism - we're working on it and we are not alone.

So one way or the other, diplomacy is going to have to be our #1 weapon, before we start thinking about bombing and pre-emptive attack.

Diplomacy is worthless without some credible and worse alternative in your trick bag. That's why it has failed so far. The Islamic fanatics have believe for a long time, based on evidence, that we don't have anything else in our bag. That is changing as we speak. (type?)

Posted by: Reverend Scaramonga [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 03:51 PM

yum yum another post gobbled up. yum yum. Come on guys, fix it!

Posted by: Reverend Scaramonga [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 03:52 PM

I know it seems funny, but remind yourself of who is dropping bunker busters on their neighbors. Revenge, much like politics is all local.

Sure. The Islamic terrorist Hezbollah bear no ill will to Christians. That'll fly.

Some people self-actualize in negative fashions.

If that was their vision...that is what will happen. Sorta like Democrats, don't you think?

Let's look at #2

What you fail to understand is that the Lebanese people understand WHY those bombs are falling. They realize that Hezbollah is attacking Israel and then using them as human shields. They are realizing that Hezbollah doesn't care one bit about them execpt as a shield from Israeli bombs and bullets.

How does Israel prove to the wider ME/Lebanon that they are less of a threat to security than Hezbollah

That will not be done by talking, at least not at first. First must come the destruction of Hezbollah. Then they can explain to Lebanon how to avoid future destruction and garner financial aid and trade. They can point to Egypt for example.

I think that recent history speaks to the contrary of your position, Northern Ireland is the most glaring example.

I guess I don't follow. If you mean that every nutjob with a rifle or grenade being wiped out is the standard, that's not possible this side of mushroom clouds. But they are not supermen. There is a "critical mass" below which the whole thing will fall apart.

I don't think our opinion will ever intersect on this one, you can't provide a good enough argument to make me believe that an all-out war with Iran somehow makes for a peaceful future.

I didn't suggest that. That's the funny thing about you, that jumping to conclusions thing. My vision for how to deal with Iran is a two-fold process. First, the application of massive and massively destructive force to the muclear and other military resources in Iran. And remembering that it hasn't been that long since Iran was a very cosmopolitan city not unlike European metropolises like Madrid (where I once lived) or Rome, a concerted effort to reach all those people in Iran who want their old country and way of life back. Once the nuke threat is history, and the lack of any Iraning military capability is exposed, the Iranians will have the chance to tip the current regime over. Failing that, at least we'll have no nuke threat - my main concern.

Another thing to consider, Iran, North Korea, and Syria are three of the most isolated and despised nations on the planet and not just by us. They are the ones who need to start convincing hearts and minds, but my guess is the screaming coming from their leaders isn't accomplishing much.

We are going to need some SERIOUS social/religious/political cover from moderate ME nations

We are getting more each day. The Saudis are quietly on board. Iraq will end up our ally. Jordan is moderate. Syria is a big questiom mark and looks to be maneuvering to get free of control by Iran. We can offer them a way out.

we cannot afford to go this alone if it ends up being the only option.

Depends on what you mean by "this." Removing nuclear threats - we can do that alone. Retaliating with massive force if attacked by terrorists - we can do that. Transforming the ME into a place where the rule of law trumps religious fanatacism - we're working on it and we are not alone.

So one way or the other, diplomacy is going to have to be our #1 weapon, before we start thinking about bombing and pre-emptive attack.

Diplomacy is worthless without some credible and worse alternative in your trick bag. That's why it has failed so far. The Islamic fanatics have believe for a long time, based on evidence, that we don't have anything else in our bag. That is changing as we speak. (type?)

Posted by: Reverend Scaramonga [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 03:53 PM

Oh, and get lost, troll...

Posted by: Reverend Scaramonga [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 04:16 PM

Sudden clarity, from a MEMRI transcript of an interview with the Head of Hezbollah in Lebanon:

"I Told Them [Lebanese Political Leaders] That We Must Resolve the Issue of the Prisoners, and That the Only Way to Resolve it is by Abducting Israeli Soldiers"

Interviewer: "Did you inform them that you were about to abduct Israeli soldiers?"

Hassan Nasrallah: "I told them that we must resolve the issue of the prisoners, and that the only way to resolve it is by abducting Israeli soldiers."

Interviewer: "Did you say this clearly?"

Hassan Nasrallah: "Yes, and nobody said to me: 'No, you are not allowed to abduct Israeli soldiers.'

Lebanon knew, and did nothing, not even asking them not to do it. They deserve what they get now.

Posted by: Reverend Scaramonga [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 04:34 PM

I often wonder whatever has become of the words "unconditional surrender." Hiz-balls-yah SHOULD only be given two choice: surrender and spend the rest of their miserable lives in Israeli jails or die for "Allah."

Posted by: Bret Helm at July 24, 2006 04:49 PM

I started writing this post a while back, and the conversation has evolved beyond it in certain ways. But I don't have time to go back and make adjustments, so I'll let it fly as is. Perhaps some will see some new insights in it, perhaps not. Either way, here goes...

Scaramonga, I haven't heard anyone reference Maslow's hierarchy for a very long time. But I think it's a valid point. Except for suicide bombers, people in general are inclined to want to satisfy their basic biological needs before anything else, and then will be motivated to search for a way to protect their access to them (i.e., they will seek out security).

Maslow didn't go into it (at least I don't think he did), but I would argue that the search for security will be influenced by peoples' perceptions of what organizations or agencies are most likely to provide that security. I will argue further that, everything else being equal, foreign agencies aren't likely to be high on the list of candidates. And I will further argue that the outside force lacks even more credibility if one's experience with that outside force is not consistent with the idea that they will provide security for you and yours.

Thus, if these arguments are considered in isolation, TEO has a very good point: relative to Israel, it's only natural that the people of Lebanon would consider Hezbollah to be the lesser of two evils. Another thing that Israel has to contend with is the fact that Hezbollah (and Hamas, for that matter) have been effective in coupling their animosity towards Israel with programs to help the local communities in which they operate. The whole "hearts and minds" issue definitely has not been lost on them.

But I am reasonably sure that Israel is aware of all that. The last time they ventured into south Lebanon they attempted to build up support for the Christian Phalangists in the area. It might have worked, too, if they hadn't allowed the Phalangists to run amok in a couple of Palestinian refugee camps, Sabra and Chatila. The Phalangists lost a great deal of credibility in those incidents, as did Israel.

I don't know what Israel have planned this time around. But I think two things are fairly obvious (at least to me): (1) Israel has no intention of attempting to eliminate Hezbollah or overrun all of Lebanon. Those things would be virtually impossible to achieve and/or maintain, short of genocide. (2) Their aim is to reduce Hezbollah's presence to such a degree as to allow one or more other, more tractable factions a chance to flourish.

Heaven knows there are plenty of factions in Lebanon. But that activity cannot be blatant, and they can't do it alone. They will need the help of the entire Western community in order to maximize the influence of those factions while minimizing the influence of others.

Many people seem to forget that simply decimating Germany and Japan in WWII was not, in itself, sufficient to ensure the establishment of governments amenable to our point of view. Through the Marshall Plan we undertook a massive effort to ensure that people's lives got better in those places, as well as the rest of Western Europe (thus winning their hearts and minds) in a sustainable way). In so doing we provided them with the means to ascend Maslow's hierarchy the rest of the way. The USSR took a different tact: they resorted to brute force to keep their vassals in line. Ultimately, that proved to be a failure. One could argue I think that the reason was due to another psychological principle: relative deprevation. And that, I'm inclined to believe, is what has been wrong with Israel's policy towards the Palestinian territories, with France;s (and other's) policies toward their immigrant population, and with what MAY turn out to be a problem here in the US if the proposed "guest worker" program gets up and running (assuming it provides no avenue towards citizenship). People need a reason to hope for a better life. That's what Maslow's hierarchy is all about. And to the extent that you prevent enough people from ascending that hierarchy, especially if the methods you use are perceived as unfair, you are inviting trouble.

Posted by: Ricorun [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 05:05 PM

Rico,

In my mind there is only one way to pour water on this fire, and that is two-fold:

1) Israel is going to have to come to the table eventually and deal for the soldiers. They have done it before, and it is the only way to save any sort of face for the eventual 'hearts & minds' campaign that will eventually have to come.

2) They are going to have to embrace Lebanon in some form or fashion and kill the idea behind Hezbollah the only logical way it can, by turning them into just another political party, that is what they fear the most...irrelevancy.

There is going to have to be a reckoining where they agree to a de-militarized Golan Heights, with assurances ffrom Syria and Lebanon that the headwaters of the Jordan aren't damned or molested to cut-off their supplies. I think if they can achieve that, then the Palestinian issue will have a recent precident for diplomacy regarding East Jerusalem and the West Bank, making Hamas another casualty to politics.

Posted by: Third Eye Open [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 05:30 PM

The whole "hearts and minds" issue definitely has not been lost on them.

I think perhaps we are close to agreement except for the small point of the perception of the Lebanese. Due to many years of liberal conditioning to our ways of thinking, I believe we miss opportunities to see realities that exist in front of our eyes. Here I am talking about the idea that the Lebanese don't have to choose who they "trust" more. The terrorists having pumped in all kinds of handouts was fine and made them friends as long as the bombs weren't flying. Now, the calculus has changed. The Lebanese people are pushed back to the 2nd level of Maslow, meaning their safety is vaporizing. And the great heroes Hezbollah cannot and will not restore it. Worse, the Lebanese are realizing that the bombs raining down on them are aimed at Hezbollah who are intentionally hiding amongst the population, using them as human shields - in effect attracting the bombs to their homes and villages.

But I am reasonably sure that Israel is aware of all that.

Again, I think this is different simply because Israel has stated their desire to destroy or disarm Hezbollah. And this time the US is backing them to do just that. Nobody in the US governement is telling the Israelis to bend over and grab their ankles, unlike before.

(2) Their aim is to reduce Hezbollah's presence to such a degree as to allow one or more other, more tractable factions a chance to flourish.

I think you might have some truth in there. But it is not what they've stated as their goals and they do have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity with US backing and the UN marginalized. Whether Hezbollah is destroyed or not depends more on when they realize that destruction is inevitible. If they do soon enough and surrender and disarm, they will survive, much weakend, but survive. If they wait too long, no such luck. It seems to be their choice now.

Many people seem to forget that simply decimating Germany and Japan in WWII was not, in itself, sufficient to ensure the establishment of governments amenable to our point of view.

But all you describe were predicated on what? Defeat of the enemy, which in modern memes has somehow been twisted into words like "dis-proportionate force" and "genocide." There are plenty of examples in history of true genocide, but they are always conducted by egomaniacs and dictators like Hitler and Stalin and the Khmer Rouge, where millions upon millions were systematically executed. That is not what will happen in Lebanon, by a long shot.

I personally believe that if Lebanon forsakes Hezbollah that Israel and the US should embark of something no less dramatic than the Marshall Plan and that will be the catalyst for transformation away from the country that houses foreign terrorists (what Hezbollah really are) to a free and thriving country that will not tolerate terrorists.

Will it be easy? No. Nothing worthwhile ever is.

Posted by: Reverend Scaramonga [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 05:33 PM

In my mind there is only one way

Get lost, troll.

Posted by: Reverend Scaramonga [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 05:34 PM

TEO-

As soon as you give these people what they want, they will only want more...

Posted by: Georgia Frawg [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 05:39 PM

TEO-

As soon as you give these people what they want, they will only want more...

Posted by: Georgia Frawg [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 06:03 PM

Teo: --Hezbollah didn't get created in a vacuum.

How right you are. In fact Hezbollah was merely a morphed orgamzation from the old PLO.

Posted by: Ash [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 06:11 PM

Georgia,

That may be so, man, but they have something Israel wants.


Posted by: Third Eye Open [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 06:18 PM

Doesn't EVERYBODY always want more? Isn't that the basis for Capitalism? How soon you warmongers forget about Commandment #8 & 9. You know the one's about coveting stuff. By the way, that's way Capitalism won't work out. And neither will these silly and tragic oil wars in the Middle East(covet). Peace

Posted by: steve at July 24, 2006 07:16 PM

TEO,

They can't very well blend back in to about 60% of the Lebanese population - Hizbollah is Shiite, and Shiite make up about 40% of Lebanon's population.

At any rate, the whole point of this exercise is to make being within 20 miles of Israel a suicide mission. Sure, Hizbollah will continue to exist after this campaign is over - but they'll be back 20 miles from the border and either a multinational force or the Lebanese army will be in control, thus providing peace and security for Israel's northern border.

The larger issue here is just how large a supply of suicidal fanatics there are. If there is anything which would bring out the desire to be a martyr for Islam, it is a fight against arch-enemy Israel...that they are having difficulty in reinforcement and resupply shows that the number of fanatics roughly corresponds to the number of men they've got on the Israeli border.

Posted by: Mark Noonan [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 08:13 PM

That may be so...

Get lost, troll.

Posted by: Reverend Scaramonga [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 08:50 PM

Terrifying photos from terrorist sympathizers all over the Western world!

PHOTOS:Hizballah Sympathizers

LGF has a round up of PHOTOS from pro-Hizballah/pro-Islam/anti-Israel demonstrations from last Saturday 7/22/06, from around the world. Scroll down and take a look at the signs these Muslims and others are holding in these demonstrations in: New York, USA; Moscow; Montreal, Canada; Sydney, Australia; Los Angeles, California, USA; Chicago, USA; London, UK-"We Are All Hizbullah".

Posted by: Freedom1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 10:28 PM

"For Hizbollah, it is looking more and more like a choice between withdrawing and being destroyed in place."-Posted by Mark Noonan

Israel should go after and destroy Hizballah even if they retreat into Northern Lebanon. Israel needs to wipe out every Hizballah terrorist they can locate. America should arm Israel with as many bunker busters, etc. that Israel needs to rid Lebanon of Hizballah once and for all. Syria and Iran must be dealt with by America and/or Israel. Israel must be made victorious over Hizballah or the fighting between Israel and Hizballah will just start up all over again in a few months.

On Sunday, I was listening to Captain Dale Dye on KFI 640 AM radio, and he was pointing out the numerous connections between Hiballah and Al-Qaeda. Captain Dye also noted that the 9/11 report details these connections between Al-Qaeda and Hizballah. Captain Dye's overall point was that Israel's fight with Hizballah is part of the greater Global War on Radical Islam, and that Americans need to be realize this fact. He pointed out that even though Hizballah is a Shiite terrorist group and Al-Qaeda is a Wahhabi Sunni terrorist organization, they have temporarily put their aside their differences and have teamed up in a concerted war to kill and subdue ALL infidels-meaning us in the West.

Israel's fight is OUR FIGHT. Hizballah and the other terrorist groups of the world want to kill ALL infidels. We must destroy them.

From Captain Dale Dye's "Know Your Enemy" primer:

Is Al Qaeda connected to other terrorists groups? Which ones?

There are at least a dozen other terrorist groups around the world who claim direct links to Al Qaeda. These are some of the most notorious:

Ansar al-Islam: This is the core organization of al-Zarqawi and it’s members are considered among the most dangerous people in the world. This is the outfit that claims credit for most of the atrocities in Iraq.

Egyptian Islamic Jihad and Jamaat Islamiyya: Both of these outfits are based primarily in Egypt and have been active since the 1970s. Many of the top Al Qaeda leaders are Egyptians.

Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan: Located in the north of Afghanistan, this lash-up is committed to establishing an Islamic fundamentalist state in Uzbekistan. They have closely embraced Osama Bin Laden’s anti-Western agenda.

Islamic Army of Aden: This is a Yemen-based unit that backs Al Qaeda’s goal of driving Westerners from the Arabian Peninsula. They are also bound and determined to overthrow the Yemeni government.

Abu Sayaf: This is the group that claims responsibility for murder and kidnappings in the Philippines. They are thought to be headquartered and most active on the island on Mindinao. They also operate throughout the Malay Peninsula.

Hezbollah: This is a radical Lebanese militia backed by Iran. They get their recruits and followers from minority Shiite Muslims. This is also the group that was responsible for the bombing on the U.S. Marine Battalion Landing Team headquarters in Beirut on 23 October 1983, killing 241 Americans.

Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (Libya and elsewhere in North Africa)

Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhamman (operating in Kashmir)

Salafist Group for Combat (Algeria)

Armed Islamic Group (Algeria)

Posted by: Freedom1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 11:03 PM

These people want to die for Islam...

Isn't Israel just giving them what they want?

Posted by: Georgia Frawg [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 11:59 PM

Freedom,

The problem with you and the good captain's theory is that Sunni regard Shia as infidels as well, that would be why we have such a problem with sectarian violence in Iraq, but thanks for trying.

By the way, can you read Arabic, Farsi, Urdu, or Tagalog? If not, I would recommend you search around for a good tranlation program, and read the news coming from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Iran etc. and actually figure out what is being said, instead of relying on third-hand information from who knows where.

Posted by: Third Eye Open [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 12:09 AM

For these radical terrorists who want to recruit
"suicide murderers", I think the Al Jazerra, and
other outlets SHOULD televise what one of these idiots look like after they have blown themselves
up for Allah and the 72 virgins they think await them. The video should show them making a pile
with the 'bombers' head over there, arm over here,
foot a block away-put it all in one pile, and pour
pig's blood on the pile, then let the viewing masses know, that the 'suicidal recruit's whole family will NOW be found and jailed. Think this might have some effect on those fools, that want
to "recruit new bombers' And by the way, the tv outlets should show this "body pile of bits and pieces in living color, for all possible recruits to view, before they make the decision to martyr themselves, innocent bystanders, AND their own family, that will be jailed forever.

Posted by: Jo [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 12:15 AM

"The problem with you and the good captain's theory is that Sunni regard Shia as infidels as well, that would be why we have such a problem with sectarian violence in Iraq, but thanks for trying."-TEO

Re-read the post, TEO. The point of the post was that even though Sunnis and Shias hate each other, their hatred for us infidels is greater. They can and do team up with each other to KILL US INFIDELS. They'll kill each other later, when they're not in the active process of killing us. Duh!

"By the way, can you read Arabic, Farsi, Urdu, or Tagalog? If not, I would recommend you search around for a good tranlation program, and read the news coming from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Iran etc. and actually figure out what is being said, instead of relying on third-hand information from who knows where."-TEO

YES, by all means read what's coming out of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Iran etc. MEMRI.org translates alot of those nations' media reports. Those Muslim nations HATE US. Those Muslim nations want to KILL US INFIDELS. Those Muslim nations are violent, misogynistic, HELL-HOLES. They want Westerners and all other non-Muslims DEAD, and they'll do whatever it takes-even teaming up with Shia infidels-to wage a global jihad to destroy us. Duh, again!

Posted by: Freedom1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 12:27 AM

sorry, last line should have been 'killing innocent bystanders...

Posted by: Jo [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 12:42 AM

sorry, last line should have been 'killing' innocent bystanders...

Posted by: Jo [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 12:43 AM

Oh. My. Gosh...

Look at this picture at TheReligionOfPeace.com Click on the picture and scroll down-(warning graphic!)

"An 8-year-old boy's arm is crushed [by a car] as punishment for stealing bread in Iran."

UGH! Islam is EVIL!

Posted by: Freedom1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 01:15 AM

Freedom,

You hypothesis regarding the unification of Wahabbi-salafism and Shi'a is laughable. If they [salafism] regard Shi'a as infidels, and have been fighting with eachother for centuries, even in the face of invaders such as Britain, what makes you think they are going to all of a sudden have an epiphany, and decide they can put aside their religious values, so they can fight a war of religious values?

Ask yourself a question. Why are we coddling places like Saudi Arabia or Pakistan when they condone these whack-jobs inciting violence against us? Do you think they are going to listen to us when it comes to stifling this violent talk? Do you think they can even supress this stuff without risking an overthrow by the religious leaders and their followers? Don't you think that our actions are helping to bring us to the edge of a conflict that may end with Pakistani nukes falling into the hands of extremists?

Posted by: Third Eye Open [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 10:39 AM

Freedom 1:

That picture is so absolutely disturbing-once again, all should see it, when they think WE are at fault, for trying to give freedom to those oppressed in this region. The leftie libs,
who want to 'blame America, Bush and his Adm-really need to wake up and smell the coffee. The
radical extremists want to kill ALL who do not follow the Islamic Law....of which, they have NO
TROUBLE KILLING, MAIMING THEIR OWN WOMEN AND CHILDREN-BECAUSE THEY ARE NUTS. I SUGGEST ALL NEED TO LOOK AT THE PHOTO @ TheReligionOfPeace.com

Posted by: Jo [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 11:55 AM

Freedom 1:

That picture is so absolutely disturbing-once again, all should see it, when they think WE are at fault, for trying to give freedom to those oppressed in this region. The leftie libs,
who want to 'blame America, Bush and his Adm-really need to wake up and smell the coffee. The
radical extremists want to kill ALL who do not follow the Islamic Law....of which, they have NO
TROUBLE KILLING, MAIMING THEIR OWN WOMEN AND CHILDREN-BECAUSE THEY ARE NUTS. I SUGGEST ALL NEED TO LOOK AT THE PHOTO @ TheReligionOfPeace.com

Posted by: Jo [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 11:56 AM

Freedom 1:

That picture is so absolutely disturbing-once again, all should see it, when they think WE are at fault, for trying to give freedom to those oppressed in this region. The leftie libs,
who want to 'blame America, Bush and his Adm-really need to wake up and smell the coffee. The
radical extremists want to kill ALL who do not follow the Islamic Law....of which, they have NO
TROUBLE KILLING, MAIMING THEIR OWN WOMEN AND CHILDREN-BECAUSE THEY ARE NUTS. I SUGGEST ALL NEED TO LOOK AT THE PHOTO @ TheReligionOfPeace.com

Posted by: Jo [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 11:58 AM

Freedom 1:

That picture is so absolutely disturbing-once again, all should see it, when they think WE are at fault, for trying to give freedom to those oppressed in this region. The leftie libs,
who want to 'blame America, Bush and his Adm-really need to wake up and smell the coffee. The
radical extremists want to kill ALL who do not follow the Islamic Law....of which, they have NO
TROUBLE KILLING, MAIMING THEIR OWN WOMEN AND CHILDREN-BECAUSE THEY ARE NUTS. I SUGGEST ALL NEED TO LOOK AT THE PHOTO @ TheReligionOfPeace.com

Posted by: Jo [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 12:01 PM

Third Eye Open:

Get lost, terrorist loving troll.

Posted by: Reverend Scaramonga [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 12:53 PM

Rev,

You're cute when you get all repetitious...

Maybe we are stuck in a Mobius

Posted by: Third Eye Open [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 02:17 PM

"You hypothesis regarding the unification of Wahabbi-salafism and Shi'a is laughable."-TEO

Who said anything about a "unification"? Sunnis and Shias are enemies but sometimes they form temporary alliances with each other to slaughter non-Muslims. They've been doing it for a long time. You haven't been paying attention. They still see each other as enemies. They will slaughter each other at a later time.

National Review Online
It’s the Terrorism, Stupid
Fancy that…Iranian fighters in Iraq.

"Who’s a Shiite?
The single greatest distortion of reality in the war is that old chestnut about the profound hatred and total incompatibility between Sunnis and Shiites. The truth is that Sunnis and Shiites happily cooperate when it comes to killing Americans, Europeans, Jews, Christians, Suffis, Bahais, and anyone else who can be defined as an infidel and/or crusader. This has been going on for a very long time. In the early Seventies, for example, the (Shiite) Revolutionary Guards were trained in Lebanon by the (Sunni) Fatah of Yasser Arafat."
**********
"Don't you think that our actions are helping to bring us to the edge of a conflict that may end with Pakistani nukes falling into the hands of extremists?"-TEO

Get this through your head, TEO: Islam and Muslims have been at war with non-Muslims-us-for 14 centuries! If we did nothing, they'd still be trying to kill us infidels because that's what Islam commands them to do. Why can't you understand this?

Also, why didn't you say anything about the Shari'a Law-based punishment of that 8 year old boy in Iran? Did you even bother to look at the picture? This is Islam. This is the EVIL of Islam. Islam is at war with us whether we want to acknowledge it or not.

Posted by: Freedom1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 04:41 PM

Jo,

Yes, it's absolutely horrific!

Posted by: Freedom1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 04:47 PM

Forgot to add the most obvious Sunni-Shia alliance: Syria (Sunni) and Iran (Shia).

Posted by: Freedom1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 05:38 PM

Third Eye Open:

See my previous entry - and get lost too, troll.

Posted by: Reverend Scaramonga [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 06:26 PM

Australia: "Accused Cleric Hoped to 'Kill 1000'"

Australia-The Nation:
Natasha Robinson
July 25, 2006

SUBURBAN Islamic cleric Abdul Nacer Benbrika wanted to kill 1000 Australians to "please Allah" and had the support of a blond recruit who had pledged violent jihad during a meeting with Osama bin Laden.

A Melbourne court heard yesterday that a witness would reveal that Shane Kent, 29, received weapons and explosives training at the Taliban-run al-Faruq training camp for foreign jihadis in Afghanistan. [..]

"If you kill, we kill here 1000," Mr Benbrika allegedly said in a conversation covertly taped by police. "Because if you get large numbers here, the government will listen."

The court was told that Mr Benbrika encouraged his adherents to follow in the footsteps of one of the masterminds of the 2002 Bali terrorist attack. He allegedly told two of them that when they were captured "they should do like Amrozi (bin Nurhasyim) and tell the judge, 'You can kill me, but there will be others coming after"'.

Posted by: Freedom1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 06:35 PM


Sorry about the duplicated posts, as I am having a
very difficult time with 'freezing on the site,
air message about monitoring posts, etc.'

PLEASE
when you see duplicate posts, remove them. Thanks

Posted by: Jo [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 09:09 PM

Sorry about the duplicated posts, as I am having a
very difficult time with 'freezing on the site,
air message about monitoring posts, etc.'

PLEASE
when you see duplicate posts, remove them. Thanks

Posted by: Jo [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 09:10 PM

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