That is what OpFor thinks is going on in Lebanon:
One of the lessons America, and the world, drew from the lightning campaigns of Gulf Wars I & II was the importance of battlesplace preparation. That is, the conditioning of the battlefield's environment prior to initiating full scale military operations.
What we are witnessing in southern Lebanon is concurrent with actions designed to prep a battlefield for the insertion of ground forces. So far, Israel has relied on its dominance in sea and air forces to isolate Hezbollah, rather than focusing their brunt of their superior forces on actual enemy positions. By blockading the coast, neutralizing Beruit's airport, and damaging roads and bridges into and out of Lebanon, the IDF has cut off Hezbollah's supply routes by land, sea, and air, and blocked all lines of escape.
These isolation actions are eerily similiar to Coalition movements prior to Operation Hail Mary during the first Gulf War, where allied aircraft severed supply lines to foward deployed Iraqi Army units.
The end result is a battlespace that traps the now ill-equipped enemy force, the ideal environment for Israel to crush Hezbollah forces.
I think that in the coming days, we will see a sizable Israeli ground incursion into southern Lebanon, a campaign designed to exploit the favorable conditions that Israel has created for itself. I have the feeling that once that invasion comes, Hezbollah's ability to launch rocket attacks into Israel proper will be severly reduced, if not eliminated.
Endstate: IDF holds the territory until it is satisfied that the Lebanese Army is A) free from Syrian control and B) capable of holding the southern border on their own.
It does make sense - no real point in bombarding the Hizbollah missile sites without following it up with a ground invasion. Destroyed missile sites can be rebuilt, dead missile crews can be replaced - no, only a ground offensive followed by an occupation until a complete Syrian-free Lebanese army is ready to move in will do the trick.
The only question is what will Syria and Iran do...
Posted by Mark Noonan at July 17, 2006 12:52 AM
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Hennessy’s View linked with The World v. Islam: Final Showdown? **UPDATE**
***UPDATE***
Michelle says ”Amen.” I say “Amen and amen.”
Blogs for Bush talks of battlefield prep in Lebanon.
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Tracked on July 17, 2006 01:28 AM
Comments
Looks like you nailed it. Drudge is reporting land forces have entered Lebanon. Crush the bastards.
Posted by: Porter Jervis at July 17, 2006 07:50 AM
I strongly suspect Israel has studied the Coalition actions in Iraq. They should learn from some of the mistakes the coalition made. They will need to act more decisively than the coalition did when it prepped the battle field in Iraq. We went with a scaled down version of the "shock and awe" phase. This allowed some of the insurgents to escape. Most importantly of all, if and when the Israeilis commit troops they will need to make sure they commit enough to actually secure the area. Finally, the idea that military response should be proportionate needs to be eliminated from military thinking. Israel's response should be disproptionate. This will help to ensure that they win decisively and should end the war as quickly as possible.
Posted by: B.Poster at July 17, 2006 09:48 AM
If the US government is smart here, they will stay out of Israel's way and let them crush Hezbollah and Hamas. Israel is about to eliminate a major problem for both of us.
Posted by: B.Poster at July 17, 2006 09:49 AM
I love the crump crump of 155's raining down on the enemy. It sounds like "victory!"
Posted by:
Reverend Scaramonga at July 17, 2006 10:20 AM
Reverend Scaramonga, yours is a very sick sentiment.
Apart from that, while listening to the news the past few days I came to the same conclusion that Mark did -- Israel is preparing itself for an incursion into southern Lebanon. And by the very nature of their actions (thus far at least) another thing is pretty clear as well -- Israel has no intention of marching on Damascus. It's all about containing Hizbollah as much as they can, getting in if they need to, and getting out fast. They are not going to repeat the same mistake they made 15 or so years ago by trying to occupy the area.
Anyhow, that's my guess.
Posted by: Ricorun at July 17, 2006 04:57 PM
Reverend Scaramonga, yours is a very sick sentiment.
How so? Have you ever heard a line of artillery pieces firing in sequence at the enemy? It is at the same time a humbling and encouraging sound as you know that within a few seconds your enemy will be feeling the results of this ear-shattering line of fire. As the shells land and lay waste to the area where the enemy hides, terror is visited upon the terrorist orders of magnitude higher than anything they could possibly cause with a simple IED or bomb vest. And that sounds like victory to me.
Apart from that, while listening to the news...
A high-level Israeli military planner, on conditions of anonymity, told a reporter yesterday that there are 4 stages to the Israeli plan in Lebanon. Stage 1 was the systematic tearing down of basic infrastructure and a blockade - which are completed. Stage 2 is the focused attack on Hezbollah offices, homes, and hideouts as well as missile, rocket, and artillery sites, which is ongoing. Phase 3 and 4 he said were secret and could not yet be revealed. But he promised that each one was more intense and fiercer than the previous one. That sounds to me like Israel has one goal and that is to destroy Hezbollah. And notice how you don't hear much from Gaza? They already occupy it and are rounding up the bad guys. They will not be quick to leave there, either.
Posted by:
Reverend Scaramonga at July 18, 2006 09:41 AM
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Looks like you nailed it. Drudge is reporting land forces have entered Lebanon. Crush the bastards.
I strongly suspect Israel has studied the Coalition actions in Iraq. They should learn from some of the mistakes the coalition made. They will need to act more decisively than the coalition did when it prepped the battle field in Iraq. We went with a scaled down version of the "shock and awe" phase. This allowed some of the insurgents to escape. Most importantly of all, if and when the Israeilis commit troops they will need to make sure they commit enough to actually secure the area. Finally, the idea that military response should be proportionate needs to be eliminated from military thinking. Israel's response should be disproptionate. This will help to ensure that they win decisively and should end the war as quickly as possible.
If the US government is smart here, they will stay out of Israel's way and let them crush Hezbollah and Hamas. Israel is about to eliminate a major problem for both of us.
I love the crump crump of 155's raining down on the enemy. It sounds like "victory!"
Reverend Scaramonga, yours is a very sick sentiment.
Apart from that, while listening to the news the past few days I came to the same conclusion that Mark did -- Israel is preparing itself for an incursion into southern Lebanon. And by the very nature of their actions (thus far at least) another thing is pretty clear as well -- Israel has no intention of marching on Damascus. It's all about containing Hizbollah as much as they can, getting in if they need to, and getting out fast. They are not going to repeat the same mistake they made 15 or so years ago by trying to occupy the area.
Anyhow, that's my guess.
Reverend Scaramonga, yours is a very sick sentiment.
How so? Have you ever heard a line of artillery pieces firing in sequence at the enemy? It is at the same time a humbling and encouraging sound as you know that within a few seconds your enemy will be feeling the results of this ear-shattering line of fire. As the shells land and lay waste to the area where the enemy hides, terror is visited upon the terrorist orders of magnitude higher than anything they could possibly cause with a simple IED or bomb vest. And that sounds like victory to me.
Apart from that, while listening to the news...
A high-level Israeli military planner, on conditions of anonymity, told a reporter yesterday that there are 4 stages to the Israeli plan in Lebanon. Stage 1 was the systematic tearing down of basic infrastructure and a blockade - which are completed. Stage 2 is the focused attack on Hezbollah offices, homes, and hideouts as well as missile, rocket, and artillery sites, which is ongoing. Phase 3 and 4 he said were secret and could not yet be revealed. But he promised that each one was more intense and fiercer than the previous one. That sounds to me like Israel has one goal and that is to destroy Hezbollah. And notice how you don't hear much from Gaza? They already occupy it and are rounding up the bad guys. They will not be quick to leave there, either.