I'm not wild about this GOP candidate, but in November when he runs again he should take 55%. He has 50% right now with 51% of the precincts in (I'm heading to bed). Almost 5% has been taken by the Minuteman candidate and the Libertarian candidate. Both of those candidates were staunching anti-immigration as well. Most of those voters will go to Bilbray in November.

Looks like the GOP held serve again unless I wake up in the morning and something drastic has happened.

Warrior,

That about sizes it up - and if the Donks can't do better than that after the last GOP officeholder was sent to jail....

"If I get close, then we've made the point..." Busby

'Close' only counts with horsehoes and handgrenades.

I love how the dems have been reduced to spinning a loss as a moral victory.

I see you very, very narrowly pulled it off. Big demcratic gains there in that Republican stronghold though, which is a good sign of things to come.

I like how you phrase things Mark, that if the democratcs had pulled it off, it would only be because of the disgrace of cunningham, but if they lost, they lost. In your eyes, theres no such thing as a democratic win is there?

I will say that some of the results of the other primaries have things looking a lot better for the democrats in the fall. Theres definately going to be a signifigant net gain of seats.

"it would only be because of the disgrace of cunningham, but if they lost, they lost. In your eyes, theres no such thing as a democratic win is there"

I can answer that -not in consrvative strongholds. Politics being all local, not a chance in Berkeley that Democrats will regain control of the House. My Rep John Boehner should win by 20%, if he only wins by 18%, does that mean there is a "trend"?

don't think so

Meathead (yeah, that Meathead) had a proposition out here in California as well. He's a flaming liberal and last month it was destined for victory according to all of the pundits. Instead, Proposition 82 got absolutely DESTROYED tonight by the state. It won 2 counties and has a slight edge in a third (too close to call) but is losing 59% to 41% for universal pre-school education funded on the backs of ...drumroll..."the rich".

Just got clobbered. Seeing Meathead on the big screen knowing he got waxed was quite satisfying.

Axis....I keep hearing about all of these moral victories and "close calls". Are you planning on winning elections or playing horseshoes?

Oh, and why do those Muslims hate Canada so much...you continue to duck the question.

Extremely liberal proposition in an extremely liberal state and it still lost. Yeah, it sure seems like a liberal tide is sweeping the country don't it?

Keep breathing the ether you traitorous 'Rats...

Do you understand how Conservative this district is?

Bush beat Kerry by 10 points here in 2004. The Repugs have a 44% to 29% voter registration edge over Democrats here as well.

And yet you guys couldn't even take 50% yesterday. Watch out in Novemeber ...

Keep saying it Maf, keep saying it. You guys are getting very good at horseshoes and hand grenades.

"We almost won". Excuses, excuses

By the way, Bush did beat Kerry by 10 points in 2004. Guess what, Busby lost by 10 points yesterday as well. She went against three conservatives (GOP, Lib, and Independent)....all three were anti-immigration.

Looks to me like nothing changed.

Busby did come in a lot closer than in 2004. Her major problem was the gaffe she made about "voting with no papers". San Diego is almost on the Mexican border, and illegal immigration is a huge problem. Bilbray took the hard-line position of the House (which will never become law) and was able to capitalize on Busby's gaffe and the anti-immigration fervor in the district. Still, its progress for the Democrats-they just need to run smarter candidates.

Bush beat Kerry by 10 points here in 2004. The Repugs have a 44% to 29% voter registration edge over Democrats here as well.

And yet you guys couldn't even take 50% yesterday. Watch out in Novemeber ...

But Kerry got like 43 or 44% and Busby only got 45%... there was also a democrat gubernatorial primary at the same time which should have driven up turnout for the dems

Busby also wasn't running against Duke Cunningham who was a lock each year. Of course it was closer this time, but still got beat by 10 points.

Still, its progress for the Democrats-they just need to run smarter candidates.

....isn't that always the issue with the left? Poor candidates and poorer ideas!

Judging by all the happy libs here, I'm guessing the democrats are just getting better at losing.
I mean, they're losing better, no that doesn't sound better. How about this; democrats are the better losers.

We will have to see how all of this plays out in November. It is to early to make any definitive predictions. Personally I would like to see a third party defeat both the Elephants and the Donkeys. That being said, with all of the problems facing the Republicans, this should have been an easy win for the Democrats. Not only was it not an easy win, they lost.

The pudding's not till November, lots of bad news for the GOP to be uncovered by then sugar, especially once the real campaigning starts. You are complaining about the MSM uncovering evidence of your filth ans sleaze, well I can assume that they will really get going this summer...

Pudding?
Try to keep up, little fellow. there was an election yesterday, and the democrats had their collective asses handed to them in California.

This is the Song of the Loser it goes, "Oh yeah, well ... wait 'till next time, we're gonna get you then, boy"

It's always next time. Forget what I said about being better losers; they're just losers.

Axis...Muslims hate Canada? Why?

Try to keep up, little fellow. there was an election yesterday, and the democrats had their collective asses handed to them in California.

-- Asses handed to them? I would not really call a 45.x to 49.x margin a asses handed to them kind of victory. That would be the last one where you had a 15+ point margin. I would call it a close race, considering the (R) stronghold, some nice gains there for democrats.

Considering this is just a short term seat until Dukes seat is up, its going to be up for grabs again really, really soon.

-----

The Meaning of Bilbray's Win in California

NPR.org, June 7, 2006 · In some ways, no matter what happened in Tuesday's special California congressional election, it wouldn't have changed the big picture: Republicans are fighting for their lives in the 2006 midterm elections.

The war in Iraq is still going badly, gasoline prices are still high, support for President Bush and the GOP-controlled Congress is still tepid. While Democrats are doing their best (see Jefferson, Bill) to equalize the "culture of corruption" charge, Republicans are still bracing themselves for what may come out of the Jack Abramoff lobbying investigation. The outlook for the Grand Old Party is still not pretty.

And it's hard to make the case that the four-point victory margin of Republican Brian Bilbray over Democrat Francine Busby to replace convicted former Congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R) changes much. Or that it was an especially compelling test case to begin with. It's a solidly Republican district carried twice by President Bush. Cunningham himself beat Busby by 20 points two years ago. You can already hear the post mortems: Bilbray should have won it.

Still, it would be wrong to paint the result as anything other than a victory for the Republicans. Given the national mood, given the fact that their previous incumbent is now spending eight-plus years in the slammer, given the split in the party over issues such as immigration, given the fact that the final pre-election polls had the race dead even, a win is a win is a win. And when you add the fact that John McCain cancelled his appearance at a Bilbray fundraiser because of differences over immigration, and that a Minutemen-backed independent candidate took an additional 4 percent of the vote, Bilbray didn't do so bad after all.

Credit Busby for some of this. She made a clear blunder in the waning days of the campaign when she was quoted as saying, "You don't need papers for voting. You need to be a registered voter to help." Some took that -- fairly or not -- as an invitation for illegal aliens to come out and vote. The apparent error played perfectly into Bilbray's get-tough-on-immigration strategy -- a strategy that became necessary when conservatives threatened to sit out the election in protest over Bilbray's other, more moderate, views.

Here's another factoid: In the April election, when 18 candidates (14 of them Republicans) crowded the ballot, Busby finished first with 44 percent of the vote. Then came two months of a tense runoff campaign, in which Busby became the poster child of the Democratic Party. She actually outraised her opponent, according to the latest FEC reports. On Tuesday, she finished with ... 45 percent of the vote.

Ultimately, Bilbray's effective use of the immigration issue may be bad news for Republican leaders like President Bush, who hope that the House and Senate can reconcile their differences and come to an agreement on a final bill. That's not to say it's a tactic that would play well in other districts. Not when there are so many other factors that could keep Republicans from coming out to vote in November.

For one day, at least, it's not necessarily doom and gloom for the GOP. Still, Republican congressional campaign committee chairman Tom Reynolds (R-NY) may not be exactly on the mark when he said, "The results in San Diego show that nothing has happened to alter the notion that House elections are about a choice between local personalities focused on local issues."

Tell that to the Democrats in 1994. Or the Republicans in 1974.

Axis

There are not bonus points for 2nd place in an election. Busby was, is and always will be a LOSER. But as a Democrat that is only reasonable.

I'm thinking of selling t-shirts which say:

************

I'm a Democrat...

My candidate finished 2nd

Hey, axis, 60% of the voters in Tuesday's election were registered democrats! Republican didn't even turn out in large numbers for this election, and the democrats still lost!
And the party lost every race and both propositions the party supported.
Nice gains? you think losing by a smaller margin is less of a loss? I think it's still makes democrats the losers!

Hey, axis, 60% of the voters in Tuesday's election were registered democrats! Republican didn't even turn out in large numbers for this election, and the democrats still lost!
And the party lost every race and both propositions the party supported.
Nice gains? you think losing by a smaller margin is less of a loss? I think it's still makes democrats the losers!

I highly doubt that.

Just when I think you couldn't say anything more stupid;
The California Primary is conducted by party affiliation;
4.06 million votes cast, 2.39 million democrat (58.87%) votes cast, 1.58 million Republican votes cast (38.92%), .092 million votes from other parties or "not affiliated" cast (2.27%).