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June 02, 2006
Those Wonderful Polls

I've been saying this for quite a long time - from Tom Elia over at The New Editor:

The Wall Street Journal's "Number Guy," Carl Bialik, writes: (emphasis added)

Sixty years after its founding, a key association of professional pollsters is dismayed with all the bad survey numbers in the press. In an overdue response, the group is seeking new ways to curtail coverage of faulty research.

A mix of factors, including the low price of online opinion research, corporate sponsorship of surveys and a press eager for numbers-driven stories and charts, has led to the publication of more polling numbers, good and bad. That's confused the public and lessened pollsters' credibility, in the view of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, which includes many of the leading pollsters from universities, the government and industry. "Our ability to conduct good public opinion and survey research is under attack from many sides," the group's long-range planning committee wrote in a May report. As part of its response, Aapor, as the group is known, plans to hire a staffer to spot and quickly respond to faulty polls.

Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Princeton, N.J.-based Gallup Poll, said that an increase in media outlets and in survey research has led to more bad reporting of polls. He added, "We have to have accurate reporting of accurate science. And that's a difficult challenge."

Most of the polls of late are faulty - they have poor demographics, poor quality of questions and are then badly analysed by the MSM. You can listen to the polls all you want, but I'm going to keep consulting what people do rather than what some pollster says they are saying.

Posted by Mark Noonan at June 2, 2006 09:28 PM



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Comments

Isn't it funny how whenever a poll clearly shows that things are not in favor of conservatives, it must be faulty in some way.

Still can't accept responsibility for your own actions. Its a critical failing of conservative mentality.

Posted by: axis [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 2, 2006 10:37 PM

Polls are crap anyways...

Posted by: Georgia Frawg [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 2, 2006 11:35 PM

Social "Science" always kinda rubbed me the wrong way, but I dont get paid to report these stats, so who the heck cares about my opinions

Posted by: Third Eye Open [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 3, 2006 12:22 AM

Yea those polls are really off ....I mean I have asked my family and friends, who live in all four corners of this country, what they think of Bush and they all say that they just love love LUV (to hate) the Great Decider.
And yes some of them actually voted for the guy!!
Face it conservatives, Bush is hated, He's hated on the left, he's hated on the right. When you have people from your own party who won't share the stage with you, then you know SOMEONE is believing those polls.
In truth Bush hatred is so ubiquitous it's becoming our new national passtime. So those polls can't really be wrong.
Actually I don't ever remember any conservatives questioning those polls when he was at 90%. hmmmmmmm why now?
Oh how the mighty have fallen.

Posted by: Leftorium at June 3, 2006 11:02 AM

Yea those polls are really off ....I mean I have asked my family and friends, who live in all four corners of this country, what they think of Bush and they all say that they just love love LUV (to hate) the Great Decider.
And yes some of them actually voted for the guy!!
Face it conservatives, Bush is hated, He's hated on the left, he's hated on the right. When you have people from your own party who won't share the stage with you, then you know SOMEONE is believing those polls.
In truth Bush hatred is so ubiquitous it's becoming our new national passtime. So those polls can't really be wrong.
Actually I don't ever remember any conservatives questioning those polls when he was at 90%. hmmmmmmm why now?
Oh how the mighty have fallen.

Posted by: Leftorium [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 3, 2006 11:05 AM

...must march in lock step...must march in lock step...must march in lock step...arm held straight out...arm held straight out...fingers straight...fingers straight...

Posted by: raker13 [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 3, 2006 11:12 AM

It seems that the only people who follow polls are the same easily misled ones who believed Moores propoganda "film". I for one know the results are scewed by the phrasing of questions or the 'breakdown' when the results need to be 'accurate' according to who is conducting the poll. It used to be the news ( ABC, CBS, etc.) would report the news and include a poll if one was done. NOw they conduct polls themself to generate news rather than to report it. It seems like a last ditch effort to try to grab a handful of watchers. Polls might be believable again IF they were do in an honest manner when needed. What we have now is overkill and faulty.

Posted by: ohiojc at June 3, 2006 11:18 AM

hypocrisy over in these parts known no bounds. so basically what we are being told is that, with the prolificacy of reporting of poll numbers, the chances of misinterpretation and bad reporting are heightened.... i'm scratching my head on this one.

yes, to be fair, the way certain questions are worded can have a significant effect on the type of answer the poller can elicit (push polling). this assertion can be made by BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE. that said, on the matter of standardized questions (such as job approval, support of the iraq war, right direction/wrong direction), it is much more difficult to challenge the science. and the results are made only more significant when separate polls report the SAME results over and over. when cbs (i think it was cbs) reported 33% approval for bush a month or so ago, brit hume immediately perceived bias and challenged the accuracy. of course, he would find himself eating his own foot a couple of weeks later when fox news, FOX NEWS brit, reports the same number. what did he say about that? nothing.

Posted by: bloviator [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 3, 2006 01:29 PM

I imagine that the recent Quinnipiac University poll showing GWB as the worst president since WWII is wrong too, or slanted in the questions asked. Look for yourself here.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11385.xml?ReleaseID=919

Questions 7 and 8 are of particular interest to the thread.

Question 7 asks ….which one would you consider the best president? It is interesting to see here that GWB loses out to BC in every category with the exception of Repubs where GWB squeaks out a narrow 6 point edge. Averaging out the results for just GWB and BC gives BC 20.5% for best president and GWB 3.67%. A 16.83 % more votes as best president than GWB. A clear win for BC.

Question 8 asks ….Which of these eleven presidents we have had since World War II would you consider the worst president. In this question GWB is rated better than BC in only two categories, White Protestants and White Evangelical/Born Again Christians, his base. The Evang/BAC’s give GWB a 14% edge over BC, but the WP’s only give GWB a 3% margin. As to the worst president between GWB (28.83%) and BC (19%) it is clearly GWB hands down.

Just for fun, if we add both best president and worst president together with worst being a negative number we get BC +20.5-19 = +1.5, GWB +3.67-28.83 = -25.16 a spread of 26.66% in favor of BC being a better president.

In way of disclosure, I have never voted for BC. But I do have 6 words about his presidency. Eight years of peace and prosperity! What 6 words can you come up with for GWB?

Posted by: Critical Thinker at June 3, 2006 09:43 PM

It seems that the only people who follow polls are the same easily misled ones who believed Moores propoganda "film". I for one know the results are scewed by the phrasing of questions or the 'breakdown' when the results need to be 'accurate' according to who is conducting the poll. It used to be the news ( ABC, CBS, etc.) would report the news and include a poll if one was done. NOw they conduct polls themself to generate news rather than to report it. It seems like a last ditch effort to try to grab a handful of watchers. Polls might be believable again IF they were do in an honest manner when needed. What we have now is overkill and faulty.


-- But Bush follows the polls. Havn't you noticed that whenever the numbers come out and are low, he goes on a X-Country speaking tour, or raises he terror alert, or arranges another bin laden tape to come out.

The funny thing is that people have now caught onto him and nothing he does raises the numbers and the harder he tries the lower he sinks.

Posted by: axis [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 3, 2006 11:11 PM

"Axis powers"

"But Bush follows the polls. Havn't you noticed that whenever the numbers come out and are low, he goes on a X-Country speaking tour, or raises he terror alert, or arranges another bin laden tape to come out"
_________________________________________________
Jeremiah says:

And interestingly enough IMHO is the hypocracy involved whenever and if axis speaks.

Funny how axis "ALWAYS" seems to do that.Isn't it.

Posted by: Jeremiah [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 4, 2006 12:57 AM

Mark, while I personally don't care for polls (my opinion is my opinion) I ask you again (and hope to get an answer this time), how is the "left" (as you know i dont consider the democrats to be left) crying "look at the polls, bush is hated" any different to the right claiming chavez stole the election based on the polls?
Just a thought for you to ponder.

Posted by: kiwi at June 4, 2006 01:46 AM

Talking in circles again Jeremiah. You've been huffing on your brimstone smoke a little too long.

Posted by: axis [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 4, 2006 02:02 AM

Your the only one brain damaged axis, You have fried your brain!!!!!!!!!!

You must be up there with those white flights again, shows where weed will lead you, axis.

Your mother taught you better, SHAME ON YOU!!!

Posted by: Jeremiah [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 4, 2006 10:57 AM

I don't smoke weed Jeremiah, but maybe you should.

Go get your smoke on and maybe you will realize that the end times aren't here yet.

Posted by: axis [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 4, 2006 11:09 AM

I imagine that the recent Quinnipiac University poll showing GWB as the worst president since WWII is wrong too, or slanted in the questions asked. Look for yourself here.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11385.xml?ReleaseID=919

Questions 7 and 8 are of particular interest to the thread.

Question 7 asks ….which one would you consider the best president? It is interesting to see here that GWB loses out to BC in every category with the exception of Repubs where GWB squeaks out a narrow 6 point edge. Averaging out the results for just GWB and BC gives BC 20.5% for best president and GWB 3.67%. A 16.83 % more votes as best president than GWB. A clear win for BC.

Question 8 asks ….Which of these eleven presidents we have had since World War II would you consider the worst president. In this question GWB is rated better than BC in only two categories, White Protestants and White Evangelical/Born Again Christians, his base. The Evang/BAC’s give GWB a 14% edge over BC, but the WP’s only give GWB a 3% margin. As to the worst president between GWB (28.83%) and BC (19%) it is clearly GWB hands down.

Just for fun, if we add both best president and worst president together with worst being a negative number we get BC +20.5-19 = +1.5, GWB +3.67-28.83 = -25.16 a spread of 26.66% in favor of BC being a better president.

In way of disclosure, I have never voted for BC. But I do have 6 words about his presidency. Eight years of peace and prosperity! What 6 words can you come up with for GWB?

Critical Thinker

Posted by: CriticalThinker [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 4, 2006 10:55 PM

Mark-you are right on the money---why we let the left-wing media (CNN, ABC, MSNBC) conduct these polls is beyond me. After all, the only results you can count on are the ones from Fox News.(I hear Tony Snow still has a lot of pull over there)

Posted by: kritter at June 5, 2006 12:07 PM

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