Earlier I posted a report pointing out that Iraqis aren't fleeing a collapsing Iraq but are, instead, returning home to Iraq in large numbers. Immediately upon that, some of our lefty commentors posted a New York Times article, part of which went thusly:
In the latest indication of the crushing hardships weighing on the lives of Iraqis, increasing portions of the middle class seem to be doing everything they can to leave the country. In the last 10 months, the state has issued new passports to 1.85 million Iraqis, 7 percent of the population and a quarter of the country's estimated middle class.
...Iraqi officials and international organizations put the number of Iraqis in Jordan at close to a million. Syrian cities also have growing Iraqi populations.
Completely controverts what my linked article was saying - so, is Mark a dunce reading the wrong news, or is the New York Times, once again, just making defeatist nonsense up?
I would take bets and then tell you the answer in a day or two, but I've got a busy week coming up...so, here's a quote from the UN High Commission on Refugees (PDF) regarding Iraq:
There are no exact figures for Iraqis displaced internally and abroad. Ongoing new displacement of population inside Iraq hinders stability and voluntary return of Iraqi population. It is, however, estimated that there are over one million Iraqis in neighboring countries, consisting of those who had fled from the previous regime as well as those who left quietly after the 2003 crisis, currently benefiting from temporary protection or tolerance in neighboring countries.(emphasis added)
There can't be 1 million Iraqis in Jordan if there are only a bit more than 1 million total Iraqis living in countries surrounding Iraq...and you just gotta know that a large portion of the exiled Iraqis are former Saddamites who don't feel safe in a non-Saddamite Iraq. Methinks the New York Times is getting it wrong, as usual. But there is more - the report also notes that there are more than 50,000 non-Iraqis who are refugees inside Iraq. But that is not all - there is even more, as detailed by Gateway Pundit:
Major General Rick Lynch, spokesman for the Multi-National Forces-Iraq had this to say about the refugee situation in Iraq just last month:
Another indicator for civil war would be forced population movements. And we are extremely sensitive to that. We see reports of tens of thousands of families displaced here in Iraq, and we chase down each and every one of those reports. And I'll show you detail in a minute. But we have seen some displacement, pockets of families moving, but not in large numbers....
...And this is very important. We have not been asked for any assistance for displaced civilians. The provincial government has not asked, the local governments have not asked, the national government has not asked. So if there are indeed 36,000-plus families that have been displaced, we're not seeing it.
We indeed move to check every report of displaced civilians. And we were told about displaced civilian camps, and of the 16 that we were told about, we can only confirm the location of four -- one in Fallujah, one in Baghdad, one in al Kut, and one down in Basra.
Lefties, please, you've got to start believing me here - the MSM really is on your side and they are quite simply reporting the news in such a manner as to make the liberation fo Iraq seem a failure...but it really isn't. It might make you feel good to hear that President Bush has failed, but he hasn't...time to get into that reality that you claim to be based upon.
Posted by Mark Noonan at May 22, 2006 08:02 AM
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There is plenty going on in Iraq, as with the rest of the CENTCOM area of operations. Much of it you can't find in traditional media outlets. Find it at the CENTCOM website, www.centcom.mil.
Sgt. Gehlen
U.S. Central Command Public Affairs
Posted by:
Sgt. Gehlen at May 22, 2006 08:39 AM
The New York Times report is talking about 1.85 million passports in the last 10 months. The numbers you quote from the UN only go up to 2003.
The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, but you're clearly skipping over the facts you don't want to hear.
Posted by:
winnowhead at May 22, 2006 09:06 AM
Mark
Why are you quoting an organization that you want to shut down? Your past comments on the UN have not been respectful, to say the least. This is a source you had expressed no faith in. Why the turnaround?
Posted by: Canadian Observer at May 22, 2006 09:16 AM
Quite a stretch Mark and full of holes as pointed out. It seems when the news suits your views it gets posted. When it doesn't,'media bias' rhetoric is spewed. You are a large part of the media bias you gripe about so often.
Posted by: jlear at May 22, 2006 09:30 AM
Well, the NYTimes reports in the past 10 months that 1.85 mill passports have been issued.
Does that mean all those who received new passports have left the country? No.
Also, the UN report estimates that "there are over one million Iraqis in neighboring countries."
"There can't be 1 million Iraqis in Jordan if there are only a bit more than 1 million total Iraqis living in countries surrounding Iraq..."
Well, first of all the NYTimes reports that close to a million are in Syria and Jordan. And the UN report says there's OVER a million. So, they estimate that at least a million are living in bordering countries. They do not say there's "a little more" than a million, as you report.
The UN report also states that refugees are mainly moving to Syria and Jordon.
So, in short, the UN numbers DO NOT refute what the NYTimes reported.
Getting back to the nearly 2 million passports issued in the past 10 months. Have all those people fled Iraq? No. Will all of them flee Iraq? No. But I'd gather that it is an indication that more Iraqis will be leaving Iraq.
Posted by: Tom Shipley at May 22, 2006 09:36 AM
North Korea has nuclear weapons,Iran is well down the road to getting them and nobody's sure who's in charge in Iraq and this is what the Right allows to pass as successful foreign policy? What this is is ongoing war profiteering. Peace
Posted by: steve at May 22, 2006 10:29 AM
Outstanding post Mark!!! Thank you!!
Posted by: NC Cop at May 22, 2006 11:15 AM
Mark,
All polls are reporting that the approval rating of your boy Bush and his GOP Congressional cohorts are at historic lows not seen since the Pleistocene (or perhaps it was the Nixon) Era. But leave it to folks like you who, in spite of the overwhelming evidence to the contrary, simply repeat the mantra that everything is really OK.
Well it's not OK, Mark, and in spite of your cheerleading for Bush and his cronies, ordinary Americans are tired of the persistent fiscal flogging and colossal mountain of lies brought upon them by the GOP. Though it must be uncomfortable for you to realize it, Americans are finally waking up to the truth about their Republican "leaders," and about their true intentions.
But perhaps there is hope for you guys come November after all. I'm given to understand that the GOP Congressional majority, with support from the White House, is re-working the Americans with Disabilities Act to provide billions in additional funding for Republican candidates for the November elections in recognition of the profound moral handicaps of the current Republican leadership. It just might work!
Too bad that you won't have the guts to post this, though.
Have a great day!
Posted by: phil at May 22, 2006 11:52 AM
Canadian,
Because the UN is an anti-American organization...and if they can't un-earth the anti-American angle here, then the likelihood of there being one is nil...I'm confronting anti-American with anti-American, as it were...meanwhile, all the non-anti-Americans agree with me...
Posted by: Mark Noonan at May 22, 2006 11:59 AM
"I'm confronting anti-American with anti-American, as it were..."
Uh, no, you're confronting solid news reports and estimates with political spin.
Posted by: Tom Shipley at May 22, 2006 12:14 PM
Yes, the Leftwing Media is our friend. The ones who cheerleaded the Iraq war. (And there was no more vociferous cheerleader than the putative blazing liberal, Dan Rather.)
With liberals like them, who needs conservatives!
Posted by: Bobster at May 22, 2006 02:46 PM
America declared its independence in 1776. Over a decade later, America signed its Constitution in 1787.
The Iraq War was fought in 2003. Just three years later, in 2006, Iraq has a new constitution and has formed a brand-new democratic government.
In just three years Iraq has gone from a bloody dictatorship to a young democracy. Not bad. Not bad at all.
Posted by: Freedom1 at May 22, 2006 07:14 PM
Interesting. So when someone reports bad news from Iraq it's the truth, but if they report something good from Iraq it's "political spin".
I wonder why that is?
Posted by: NC Cop at May 22, 2006 07:50 PM
Winnow,
No, the numbers go up to December of 2005....at that time, the UN reports that:
There were 137,000 Iraqis classified as refugees/asylum seekers.
That there were 1,000,000 other Iraqis in the surrounding territories.
That between 2004 and 2005, 811,000 Iraqis returned home.
I stand by my assertion: The New York Times is inventing an Iraqi refugee crisis in order to further denigrate our great victory in Iraq and, of course, hit President Bush at every opportunity.
Posted by: Mark Noonan at May 22, 2006 08:19 PM
Tom,
I know you won't, but you should trust me on this - the New York Times is UNRELIABLE. I know, they do reports you like because they tell you what you want to hear...but reality intervenes....as it will this November....and I'd hate to see you continue to base your views upon lies.
Posted by: Mark Noonan at May 22, 2006 08:22 PM
How about Google now purging Conserverative Websites....some great articles on this topic the last few days on many conservative sites.
Of course with Al Gore a major share holder and a bunch of left wing whackos running it, well I guess they know better what people should be able to search for or not.
Posted by: Warriornation at May 23, 2006 01:28 AM
Hey Phil I guess he posted it huh?!!! ha ha
A drive by liberal poster with his brain located in neverland. I'd suggest the the General's comments are more trustworthy than some of the original posters on this thread. What always helps me determine an answer, is to watch the libs breathlessly support any idea that is anti-conservative. But first they have to wait to see what side the conservatives pick to support. They really have NO ideas of their own, as the result of our withered educational system. Hell, these guys are part of the 70% that can't find New Orleans. So much for revival based on the traveling public!!
My favorite thing is to watch them 'threaten' sure victory when they have been handed their hat consistently. I'd suppose they will get their ass kicked this year too, even though there are too many Rino's in our midst. When will our third party giant emerge to lead us away from all these posers.
Posted by: dickdee at May 23, 2006 07:00 AM
"I know you won't, but you should trust me on this"
Mark, why would I trust you on this? I probably read the NYTimes just as much as you, and I've read a lot of your "Media Bias" posts -- most, if not all, have amateur and poor arguments arguing that bias is there.
There is zero reason to trust you.
Posted by: Tom Shipley at May 23, 2006 08:30 AM
Mark, I think you read the UN's numbers wrong. What they are saying is that there remains over a million Iraqis in neighboring countries with the highest concentrations now in Jordan and Syria. As Taheri stated, it used to be Iran with the highest concentration of Iraqi refugees, who fled after the failed 1991 uprisings in the north (Kirds) and south (Shia). Given the shift to Jordan and Syria, I would presume, like you, that many of the current refugees are Sunni. But other reports indicate that there are many Palestinians and Assyrian Christians as well.
On the other hand, General Lynch was referring to the recent wave of internal refugees following the bombings in Samarra and the ensuing and ongoing violence that followed them. And apparently, some well-placed Iraqis don't agree with Gen. Lynch regarding the severity of the displacement.
I also found a report published about a month earlier (April 6} by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) that included detailed data from the Iraq Ministry of Displacement and Migration. The numbers are smaller, of course, because it describes the situation only until the beginning of April. But it breaks the numbers down in a variety of ways, including religious affilitation. And it's pretty clear that both Shia and Sunnis are involved in the current displacement -- Shia are fleeing predominantly Sunni areas and Sunnis are fleeing predominantly Shia areas.
Generally speaking, it paints a very sad picture of rising ethnic tensions. Also unfortunately, it is one of many indicators. Another is the fact in that the latest poll published in the Brookings' Iraq Index the response to the question: "Do you think Iraq today is generally headed in the right direction/wrong direction?", the responses went from 49%-36% favorable in Nov, Dec 20005 to 30%-52% unfavorable in March 2006. Heaven knows what the opinion is now. But clearly, the powers that be have to find a way to reign in the ethnic militias and establish central control. And until the government at least manages to come up with credible individuals to head the ministries of defense and interior, I'm not inclined to get too overjoyed about the new government.
That's the downside. And as worrisome as it is, there are some bright spots. For one, the training of Iraqi security forces is going very well, and the number of troops at level I or II effectiveness has almost doubled in the 6 mos from Sept - March. The only real question remaining is their allegiance. Phone service and internet access has exploded, as has the proliferation of commercial news outlets. Even the Iraq economy is doing pretty well. In one short year the GDP managed to rebound from a major hit following the invasion. Even accounting for inflation, the economy is doing better now than pre-war levels -- and that's in spite of the fact that oil production, electrical generation, and sewage treatment are all still below pre-war levels. If they can get their security situation under control, the economy is poised to take off. IMHO, the security situation is absolutely key. I seriously hope they haven't dug themselves too deep a hole by dragging their feet getting a government up and running.
And before anyone gets their shorts in too much of a bunch about the UN, keep in mind that without the intervention of the International Monetary Fund (an agency of the UN), the economic situation in Iraq would be dire. The UN is certainly in need of a major overhaul, but don't throw the baby out with the bath.
Posted by: Ricorun at May 23, 2006 11:20 AM
Mark, I think you read the UN's numbers wrong. What they are saying is that there remains over a million Iraqis in neighboring countries with the highest concentrations now in Jordan and Syria. As Taheri stated, it used to be Iran with the highest concentration of Iraqi refugees, who fled after the failed 1991 uprisings in the north (Kirds) and south (Shia). Given the shift to Jordan and Syria, I would presume, like you, that many of the current refugees are Sunni. But other reports indicate that there are many Palestinians and Assyrian Christians as well.
On the other hand, General Lynch was referring to the recent wave of internal refugees following the bombings in Samarra and the ensuing and ongoing violence that followed them. And apparently, some well-placed Iraqis don't agree with Gen. Lynch regarding the severity of the displacement.
I also found a report published about a month earlier (April 6} by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) that included detailed data from the Iraq Ministry of Displacement and Migration. The numbers are smaller, of course, because it describes the situation only until the beginning of April. But it breaks the numbers down in a variety of ways, including religious affilitation. And it's pretty clear that both Shia and Sunnis are involved in the current displacement -- Shia are fleeing predominantly Sunni areas and Sunnis are fleeing predominantly Shia areas.
Generally speaking, it paints a very sad picture of rising ethnic tensions. Also unfortunately, it is one of many indicators. Another is the fact in that the latest poll published in the Brookings' Iraq Index (which I cited in a previous post) the response to the question: "Do you think Iraq today is generally headed in the right direction/wrong direction?", the responses went from 49%-36% favorable in Nov, Dec 20005 to 30%-52% unfavorable in March 2006. Heaven knows what the opinion is now. But clearly, the powers that be have to find a way to reign in the ethnic militias and establish central control. And until the government at least manages to come up with credible individuals to head the ministries of defense and interior, I'm not inclined to get too overjoyed about the new government.
That's the downside. And as worrisome as it is, there are some bright spots. For one, the training of Iraqi security forces is going very well, and the number of troops at level I or II effectiveness has almost doubled in the 6 mos from Sept - March. The only real question remaining is their allegiance. Phone service and internet access has exploded, as has the proliferation of commercial news outlets. Even the Iraq economy is doing pretty well. In one short year the GDP managed to rebound from a major hit following the invasion. Even accounting for inflation, the economy is doing better now than pre-war levels -- and that's in spite of the fact that oil production, electrical generation, and sewage treatment are all still below pre-war levels. If they can get their security situation under control, the economy is poised to take off. IMHO, the security situation is absolutely key. I seriously hope they haven't dug themselves too deep a hole by dragging their feet getting a government up and running.
And before anyone gets their shorts in too much of a bunch about the UN, keep in mind that without the intervention of the International Monetary Fund (an agency of the UN), the economic situation in Iraq would be dire. The UN is certainly in need of a major overhaul, but don't throw the baby out with the bath.
Posted by: Ricorun at May 23, 2006 11:22 AM
Post a comment
There is plenty going on in Iraq, as with the rest of the CENTCOM area of operations. Much of it you can't find in traditional media outlets. Find it at the CENTCOM website, www.centcom.mil.
Sgt. Gehlen
U.S. Central Command Public Affairs
The New York Times report is talking about 1.85 million passports in the last 10 months. The numbers you quote from the UN only go up to 2003.
The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, but you're clearly skipping over the facts you don't want to hear.
Mark
Why are you quoting an organization that you want to shut down? Your past comments on the UN have not been respectful, to say the least. This is a source you had expressed no faith in. Why the turnaround?
Quite a stretch Mark and full of holes as pointed out. It seems when the news suits your views it gets posted. When it doesn't,'media bias' rhetoric is spewed. You are a large part of the media bias you gripe about so often.
Well, the NYTimes reports in the past 10 months that 1.85 mill passports have been issued.
Does that mean all those who received new passports have left the country? No.
Also, the UN report estimates that "there are over one million Iraqis in neighboring countries."
"There can't be 1 million Iraqis in Jordan if there are only a bit more than 1 million total Iraqis living in countries surrounding Iraq..."
Well, first of all the NYTimes reports that close to a million are in Syria and Jordan. And the UN report says there's OVER a million. So, they estimate that at least a million are living in bordering countries. They do not say there's "a little more" than a million, as you report.
The UN report also states that refugees are mainly moving to Syria and Jordon.
So, in short, the UN numbers DO NOT refute what the NYTimes reported.
Getting back to the nearly 2 million passports issued in the past 10 months. Have all those people fled Iraq? No. Will all of them flee Iraq? No. But I'd gather that it is an indication that more Iraqis will be leaving Iraq.
North Korea has nuclear weapons,Iran is well down the road to getting them and nobody's sure who's in charge in Iraq and this is what the Right allows to pass as successful foreign policy? What this is is ongoing war profiteering. Peace
Outstanding post Mark!!! Thank you!!
Mark,
All polls are reporting that the approval rating of your boy Bush and his GOP Congressional cohorts are at historic lows not seen since the Pleistocene (or perhaps it was the Nixon) Era. But leave it to folks like you who, in spite of the overwhelming evidence to the contrary, simply repeat the mantra that everything is really OK.
Well it's not OK, Mark, and in spite of your cheerleading for Bush and his cronies, ordinary Americans are tired of the persistent fiscal flogging and colossal mountain of lies brought upon them by the GOP. Though it must be uncomfortable for you to realize it, Americans are finally waking up to the truth about their Republican "leaders," and about their true intentions.
But perhaps there is hope for you guys come November after all. I'm given to understand that the GOP Congressional majority, with support from the White House, is re-working the Americans with Disabilities Act to provide billions in additional funding for Republican candidates for the November elections in recognition of the profound moral handicaps of the current Republican leadership. It just might work!
Too bad that you won't have the guts to post this, though.
Have a great day!
Canadian,
Because the UN is an anti-American organization...and if they can't un-earth the anti-American angle here, then the likelihood of there being one is nil...I'm confronting anti-American with anti-American, as it were...meanwhile, all the non-anti-Americans agree with me...
"I'm confronting anti-American with anti-American, as it were..."
Uh, no, you're confronting solid news reports and estimates with political spin.
Yes, the Leftwing Media is our friend. The ones who cheerleaded the Iraq war. (And there was no more vociferous cheerleader than the putative blazing liberal, Dan Rather.)
With liberals like them, who needs conservatives!
America declared its independence in 1776. Over a decade later, America signed its Constitution in 1787.
The Iraq War was fought in 2003. Just three years later, in 2006, Iraq has a new constitution and has formed a brand-new democratic government.
In just three years Iraq has gone from a bloody dictatorship to a young democracy. Not bad. Not bad at all.
Interesting. So when someone reports bad news from Iraq it's the truth, but if they report something good from Iraq it's "political spin".
I wonder why that is?
Winnow,
No, the numbers go up to December of 2005....at that time, the UN reports that:
There were 137,000 Iraqis classified as refugees/asylum seekers.
That there were 1,000,000 other Iraqis in the surrounding territories.
That between 2004 and 2005, 811,000 Iraqis returned home.
I stand by my assertion: The New York Times is inventing an Iraqi refugee crisis in order to further denigrate our great victory in Iraq and, of course, hit President Bush at every opportunity.
Tom,
I know you won't, but you should trust me on this - the New York Times is UNRELIABLE. I know, they do reports you like because they tell you what you want to hear...but reality intervenes....as it will this November....and I'd hate to see you continue to base your views upon lies.
How about Google now purging Conserverative Websites....some great articles on this topic the last few days on many conservative sites.
Of course with Al Gore a major share holder and a bunch of left wing whackos running it, well I guess they know better what people should be able to search for or not.
Hey Phil I guess he posted it huh?!!! ha ha
A drive by liberal poster with his brain located in neverland. I'd suggest the the General's comments are more trustworthy than some of the original posters on this thread. What always helps me determine an answer, is to watch the libs breathlessly support any idea that is anti-conservative. But first they have to wait to see what side the conservatives pick to support. They really have NO ideas of their own, as the result of our withered educational system. Hell, these guys are part of the 70% that can't find New Orleans. So much for revival based on the traveling public!!
My favorite thing is to watch them 'threaten' sure victory when they have been handed their hat consistently. I'd suppose they will get their ass kicked this year too, even though there are too many Rino's in our midst. When will our third party giant emerge to lead us away from all these posers.
"I know you won't, but you should trust me on this"
Mark, why would I trust you on this? I probably read the NYTimes just as much as you, and I've read a lot of your "Media Bias" posts -- most, if not all, have amateur and poor arguments arguing that bias is there.
There is zero reason to trust you.
Mark, I think you read the UN's numbers wrong. What they are saying is that there remains over a million Iraqis in neighboring countries with the highest concentrations now in Jordan and Syria. As Taheri stated, it used to be Iran with the highest concentration of Iraqi refugees, who fled after the failed 1991 uprisings in the north (Kirds) and south (Shia). Given the shift to Jordan and Syria, I would presume, like you, that many of the current refugees are Sunni. But other reports indicate that there are many Palestinians and Assyrian Christians as well.
On the other hand, General Lynch was referring to the recent wave of internal refugees following the bombings in Samarra and the ensuing and ongoing violence that followed them. And apparently, some well-placed Iraqis don't agree with Gen. Lynch regarding the severity of the displacement.
I also found a report published about a month earlier (April 6} by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) that included detailed data from the Iraq Ministry of Displacement and Migration. The numbers are smaller, of course, because it describes the situation only until the beginning of April. But it breaks the numbers down in a variety of ways, including religious affilitation. And it's pretty clear that both Shia and Sunnis are involved in the current displacement -- Shia are fleeing predominantly Sunni areas and Sunnis are fleeing predominantly Shia areas.
Generally speaking, it paints a very sad picture of rising ethnic tensions. Also unfortunately, it is one of many indicators. Another is the fact in that the latest poll published in the Brookings' Iraq Index the response to the question: "Do you think Iraq today is generally headed in the right direction/wrong direction?", the responses went from 49%-36% favorable in Nov, Dec 20005 to 30%-52% unfavorable in March 2006. Heaven knows what the opinion is now. But clearly, the powers that be have to find a way to reign in the ethnic militias and establish central control. And until the government at least manages to come up with credible individuals to head the ministries of defense and interior, I'm not inclined to get too overjoyed about the new government.
That's the downside. And as worrisome as it is, there are some bright spots. For one, the training of Iraqi security forces is going very well, and the number of troops at level I or II effectiveness has almost doubled in the 6 mos from Sept - March. The only real question remaining is their allegiance. Phone service and internet access has exploded, as has the proliferation of commercial news outlets. Even the Iraq economy is doing pretty well. In one short year the GDP managed to rebound from a major hit following the invasion. Even accounting for inflation, the economy is doing better now than pre-war levels -- and that's in spite of the fact that oil production, electrical generation, and sewage treatment are all still below pre-war levels. If they can get their security situation under control, the economy is poised to take off. IMHO, the security situation is absolutely key. I seriously hope they haven't dug themselves too deep a hole by dragging their feet getting a government up and running.
And before anyone gets their shorts in too much of a bunch about the UN, keep in mind that without the intervention of the International Monetary Fund (an agency of the UN), the economic situation in Iraq would be dire. The UN is certainly in need of a major overhaul, but don't throw the baby out with the bath.
Mark, I think you read the UN's numbers wrong. What they are saying is that there remains over a million Iraqis in neighboring countries with the highest concentrations now in Jordan and Syria. As Taheri stated, it used to be Iran with the highest concentration of Iraqi refugees, who fled after the failed 1991 uprisings in the north (Kirds) and south (Shia). Given the shift to Jordan and Syria, I would presume, like you, that many of the current refugees are Sunni. But other reports indicate that there are many Palestinians and Assyrian Christians as well.
On the other hand, General Lynch was referring to the recent wave of internal refugees following the bombings in Samarra and the ensuing and ongoing violence that followed them. And apparently, some well-placed Iraqis don't agree with Gen. Lynch regarding the severity of the displacement.
I also found a report published about a month earlier (April 6} by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) that included detailed data from the Iraq Ministry of Displacement and Migration. The numbers are smaller, of course, because it describes the situation only until the beginning of April. But it breaks the numbers down in a variety of ways, including religious affilitation. And it's pretty clear that both Shia and Sunnis are involved in the current displacement -- Shia are fleeing predominantly Sunni areas and Sunnis are fleeing predominantly Shia areas.
Generally speaking, it paints a very sad picture of rising ethnic tensions. Also unfortunately, it is one of many indicators. Another is the fact in that the latest poll published in the Brookings' Iraq Index (which I cited in a previous post) the response to the question: "Do you think Iraq today is generally headed in the right direction/wrong direction?", the responses went from 49%-36% favorable in Nov, Dec 20005 to 30%-52% unfavorable in March 2006. Heaven knows what the opinion is now. But clearly, the powers that be have to find a way to reign in the ethnic militias and establish central control. And until the government at least manages to come up with credible individuals to head the ministries of defense and interior, I'm not inclined to get too overjoyed about the new government.
That's the downside. And as worrisome as it is, there are some bright spots. For one, the training of Iraqi security forces is going very well, and the number of troops at level I or II effectiveness has almost doubled in the 6 mos from Sept - March. The only real question remaining is their allegiance. Phone service and internet access has exploded, as has the proliferation of commercial news outlets. Even the Iraq economy is doing pretty well. In one short year the GDP managed to rebound from a major hit following the invasion. Even accounting for inflation, the economy is doing better now than pre-war levels -- and that's in spite of the fact that oil production, electrical generation, and sewage treatment are all still below pre-war levels. If they can get their security situation under control, the economy is poised to take off. IMHO, the security situation is absolutely key. I seriously hope they haven't dug themselves too deep a hole by dragging their feet getting a government up and running.
And before anyone gets their shorts in too much of a bunch about the UN, keep in mind that without the intervention of the International Monetary Fund (an agency of the UN), the economic situation in Iraq would be dire. The UN is certainly in need of a major overhaul, but don't throw the baby out with the bath.