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May 20, 2006
Right Track/Wrong Track

As we all know, the polls prove not only that President Bush is the most unpopular man in human history, but also show that the Congressional GOP is going to be forced into exile after the November elections...essentially, a relentless series of MSM polls have pointed out just how unimportant it is for the GOP to show up in November because the Democrats have already won it all...on the left, they are starting to get impatient: they are wondering why President Bush doesn't have his cabinet shot in preparation for his resignation...after all, the polls show things are bad for him, and that is good enough for a leftist...

As regular readers here know, I take these polls with, oh, an ocean of salt - it just doesn't seem credible to me that with the economy booming and people generally out there having a good time that people can be that down on those who are running the show. Its like getting out of the best movie you ever saw and then penning a nasty letter to the director. Tom Bevan over at Real Clear Politics gives me further food for my poll-doubting thoughts:

In the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll, only 29% of people said they feel the country is generally going in the right direction, while 69% answered they feel the country is "pretty seriously off on the wrong track." Not much news there.

Interestingly, however, the Post followed this standard survey question with two other "right track/wrong track" questions, further probing public attitudes. When people were asked how things are going in their "state," 45% said things were going in the right direction while 52% said things were off on the wrong track. The results for a question about respondents' "local community" were even more pronounced: 58% said things were moving the right direction and only 41% said they were off on the wrong track.

That's close to a fifty percent swing between the how the public perceives things to be going at the national level versus the local level.

Mr. Bevan points out that we may speculate why this should be so - so, here's my speculation:

First off, the polling samples are usually quite biased. Time and time again we see that the number of Democrats in these polls far outnumber the GOP respondents; addtionally, we don't know how really random these polls are...they could be randomly calling mostly California and New York and that would get you a very different response than if you polled randomly in Texas and Florida.

Secondly, the American people have been fed a steady diet of really bad news - this would have made a perfect "What Media Bias" entry, but I'll use it here:

Scores killed as violence surges across Afghanistan

That is the headline - now, what do you suppose happened? Sounds like a whole bunch of people were killed by violent act...sounds like things are going to heck in a handbasket, doesn't it? Well, you have to read in to the news story to find out that most of the scores killed were Taliban...and, furthermore, that most of them were killed in stand up battles fought by the Afghan National Army. Most Americans get their news in sound-bite form - a couple headlines scanned on the paper, perhaps some quick TV and radio news reports through the course of the day. The sound-bite part of the news, especially, paints a horrific picture - not just about the war, but about everything. It is no surprise that people who have been spoon fed this bad news would come to think that things are bad...but then there's the evidence in front of one's eyes, and that is not bad. So, we get the poll result - country is going to heck, State is ok, locality is wonderful...

It will be the localities which will drive the politics of 2006. Keep that in mind as November approaches.

Posted by Mark Noonan at May 20, 2006 09:07 AM



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Comments

Well, Mark, as the saying goes, denial isn't just a river in Egypt. You claim that races for the House and Senate will be fought locally. If that is true, why are many incumbent Republicans starting their campaigns early? When Bill Clinton failed to push through universal health care in his first term, and came up with an unpopular policy on gays in the military, voters reacted by turning out the Democratic majority in both houses of Congress.

Republican strategists are just drinking the Kool-aid if they think that Bush's unpopularity (of course you deny that he's even unpopular as every poll that shows him at 33%or lower must be because of the bias of the MSM) won't effect their majorities in the House and Senate. Many Conservatives are extremely disappointed with Congress, as well as with Bush because of their lack of fiscal discipline, and policies on immigration.
Just like other Bush fanatics, you think that because the economy is working well for you, it is benefiting the rest of society as well. Blue collar workers have seen their wages stagnating and their jobs taken by illegal immigrants, who will work harder for less. They are paying 3$ a gallon for gas, and don't have that fat stock portfolio to fall back on. But all is well in Bushland.........

Posted by: kritter at May 20, 2006 10:00 AM

First off, the polling samples are usally quite biased.

Are you serious, Mark? Serriously, it's time to face reality and reallize that the Shrub is an incompetent man. Let go of your blind patriotism and wake up.

Posted by: teenage liberal [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 20, 2006 10:56 AM

spelled 'seroiusly' wrong. my bad.

Posted by: teenage liberal [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 20, 2006 10:56 AM

I love these people who claim Bush is "an incompetent man." I suppose that makes them feel like a literary, as though they hold the keys to brilliance.

Look, here's how it is: Polls ALWAYS have a greater sampling of democrats; that is a fact. Republicans could possibly lose a few seats in the House, but I doubt it. This election will be very ugly, a war of words for sure. But when it comes down to the vote Americans aren't going to put this country's defense into the hands of liberal defeatists. Democrats simply don't take this War seriously. They haven't grown up.

Posted by: David [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 20, 2006 11:29 AM

David---

Its not just Liberals who are questioning Bush's competence---much of the Republican base is as well. Conservatives hate inefficient, bureacratic big-spending governments, which is exactly what Dubya has wrought. He has added numerous layers to gov't creating the DIA and the DHS. This has increased infighting and downright incompetence. FEMA and the CIA have become major embarrassments.
And while touting his strengths on national security---little has been done to increase security at our most vulnerable places-our ports.

We entered a war based on mistaken intelligence with no plan for securing the country after the initial invasion, and no exit strategy. Americans and Iraqis have been paying for "Mission Accomplished" for three years, with no end in sight.

There have also been various entertaining scandals and leaks. The lobbying scandal, Plamegate, Abu Ghraib, Enron, just to name a few.

We've lost the esteem of many countries in the world due to the Neocon's plans for global dominance, and our willingness to torture combatants in secret prisons.

Despite GWB's campaign promises to secure better deals with OPEC, we're paying almost twice as much for gas as we did in 2000. The official policy on global warming has been to put our heads in the sand and pretend it doesn't exist.

Guess what? He's incompetent!

Posted by: kritter at May 20, 2006 11:52 AM

Actually its more like going to a theater seeing the best movie you ever saw, but you were strip searched at the door, your popcorn was stale , your seat was broken, the floor was sticky and your candy bar was melted before you bought it.


Mark said:

"Its like getting out of the best movie you ever saw and then penning a nasty letter to the director."


-- The economy isn't doing as great as Bush tries to claim. New job creations are a fraction of what clinton had during his terms. The debt is totally out of control at over $8 trillion and rising at 26 Billion in interest alone a SECOND.

-- The war is going badly and people saw how Bush has now passed the problem to a "future president" because he has not a clue how to fix the mess he has created. He looks bad to the Republicans if he pulls out, look bad to the Democrats he doesn't

-- Unemployment is up since Clinton

-- Neither Congree nor the White house has a clue what fiscal responsibility or balanced budgets mean

-- Rampant corruption along party lines in congress

-- Indictments coming from the highest echelon of the adminstation

-- Lack of congressional oversight

-- Lack of congressional investigations

-- Erosion of forth ammendment rights

-- American jobs going overseas to India and other countries

-- Record high trade deficits

-- near 30 year lows of the greenback against other world currencies

-- Condonement or prisoner torture and rendition

-- Erosion of reporters first ammendment rights

-- Erosion of constitutional protections and rights

-- And of course, all the apparently illegal acts being purportrated against the american people.

Posted by: axis [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 20, 2006 11:52 AM

sounds like things are going to heck in a handbasket, doesn't it? Well, you have to read in to the news story to find out that most of the scores killed were Taliban

As often as you try to minimize the lives of people and claim that i guess it is just collateral damage? Lets see all the people who died that you couldn't give a crap about.

So we have about 20 police (they are arabs so they are no better than dirt and it doesn't matter if they die right?) an American civilian (probably some tree hugging hippie that would sooner join the taliban than stand up for himself) a passer-by (those people let the taliban rule, they deserve to get what's coming to them) and a Canadian soldier (Canada has an army?) and also over a hundred taliban.

Now while you look at the headline "Scores killed as violence surges across Afghanistan" and with your biased perspective see "SCORES OF AMERICANS BRUTALLY SLAIN IN AFGHANISTAN" and then read the story and go "What!?! Only 1 American soldier got injured!?!" you have to realize that to some people no one deserves to die, not even people that are brown. So yes, when over 100 people die that is scores of death. When fire fighting goes on in towns for hours and hours, that is violence surging. What would you have them say? What would you put as the headline?

Posted by: Keefer [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 20, 2006 01:21 PM

Keefer

If this war on terror ends, the body count of the innocent non-American victims will not be considered. Unless you are a citizen of the USA, your death in the fight for democracy will be part of the price to pay.

Posted by: Canadian Observer [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 20, 2006 02:10 PM

"you have to realize that to some people no one deserves to die." Keefer

So let me understand this...no one ever, under any circumstances, deserves to die, no matter what they may have done?

Is that you final answer? Or would you like to clarify that for the rest of us sinners.

Posted by: phnxbmed at May 20, 2006 02:54 PM

Canadian,

And all the deaths caused by tyrants in the past century? I guess that is just the price that has to be paid so that you won't have to do anything about it...as long as they are people far away that you don't know...

Posted by: Mark Noonan [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 20, 2006 03:31 PM

Mark

In America's quest to spread democracy around the world, I just want acknowledgement of those innocent non-American victims who die as a result.

Posted by: Canadian Observer [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 20, 2006 04:06 PM

I am going to do something positive. I am going to tell the Republican party what will turn things around for them:

1. Tell Pat Robertson And James Dobson "Theres the Door, use it" In other words, completely separate the party from Fundamentalist. If both Democrats and Republicans tell the so-called values voters (They really don't exist) good bye, then who will they vote for? They will be left out in left field with nothing to do but Twiddle their tumbs. Maybe then they will see they can think on their own and will stick with us.

2. Impeach George W. Bush. But the Republican Party Must do this. Also grab Chaney and stick Rick Santorm (Sorry for the spelling) In as President. This takes the wind out of the Democrats totally. (I think an alternative to this is to have Oran Hatch and Bill Frist go and convence Dick Chaney to resign, and Convence Rick Santorm (SP) to be the vice president and after Rick is Vice President then convence Bush to resign and then Rick Santorm will be President)

3. Get out of Iraq now, pull all forces out etc. Its clear the public dis-approves of this war.

4. Raise the Minimun Wage to 5.50 an hour. this is still low and you can say we did it first with-out really hurting the economy.

5. Admitt that most of the so-called jobs formed are Fast Food or low pay jobs and then promiss to help develop more mid-range pay jobs.

6. Build a Wall 50 foot high and 100 foot wide across the entire Mexican-United States Border.

7. Revoke the investment Tax Cuts. This has become unpopular because A) no one believes the Rich will invest their new money and B) only those with over 100,000 bucks really see a benefit. Remember we want to get more people to vote for the Republicans so we want to make the party more appealing to them. And Revoking anything that helps the rich will do this.

If you want to loose the election in November, then ignore my advice. If you want to win, start by booting the Christian Moral Majority from the Republican party and then proceed from there.

Posted by: Master Magnum at May 20, 2006 04:35 PM

Canadian,

Thank you for bringing that to our attention. We know the exact number of American lives lost, Americans wounded and even Americans severely wounded. But, we will never get an accurate account of innocent Iraqi or Afghani lives lost in this conflict. The Iraqis and Afghanis only seem to count when we need a rationale to invade (after the WMD excuse fell by the wayside) or when we're patting ourselves on the back for "Mission Accomplished".

Posted by: kritter at May 20, 2006 06:29 PM

Mark, So are we planning regime change in Saudi Arabia next? After all King Abdullah has been listed as one of the world's ten worst tyrants in Parade magazine's survey. And what about Kim Il Jong of North Korea? Or did we just drop him like a hot potato after 9/11?

Posted by: kritter at May 20, 2006 07:05 PM

Polling of adults is just a waste of time anyway. The un-MSM do it because it costs them next to nothing to do it, and they are really losing a ton of money because of lost viewers and ad spending. Then they slant the poll by oversampling Demorats from +9 to +15, oversamping Indies (such as myself), and undersampling Republicants.

As far as gas prices, they will be pretty low by October. You can't just conserve your way out of the situation, over regulate the industry, refuse to build/expand refineries, refuse to expand domestic drilling in Alaska, keep voting to raise gasoline taxes (i.e. John Kerry like 60+ times), and deny that you have a problem. Our economy is just too strong, as is China and India.

Heck, I'm troubled and concerned (to quote the former Demorat Minority Leader in the Senate) that if European Union gets its act together and again grows its economy and reduce its double digit unemployment, gas prices will just go up further.

Posted by: Tina at May 20, 2006 07:46 PM

This arguement aboutthe semantics of the dead comes as a result of the Bush administration mislabelling of insurgents as terrorists.

America is the one in the wrong over there, invading a country based on lies and false intelligence. Labelling patriotic Iraqis that fight the occupying American troops as "Terrorists" is not only a perversion but it is incredibly short sighted.

Put yourself in this position. North Korea drops 10 000 troops into your city tomorrow and you pick up arms and begin fighting them off. By your own President's definition, YOU would be a terrorist.

Posted by: axis [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 20, 2006 07:58 PM

I came across an interesting article in the washington post that is outlining some of the troubles in the Republican party, mostly the differences between the moderates and more conservative voters.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/18/AR2006051801773.html

Posted by: axis [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 20, 2006 10:47 PM

Axis,

The DEMOCRATICALLY elected government of Iraq, (elected by 70% of eligible voters), wishes for the US troops to stay and the terrorist to be stopped. Yet you and your leftist friends insist on calling the terrorist insurgents, even though a large percentage are foreigners.

These "patriotic insurgents" as you call them are fighting against the expressed will of the Iraqi people, killing civilians on a routine basis.

So the question to you is patriotic to whom? Saddam? Al Queda? Allah?

Posted by: phnxbmed at May 21, 2006 12:06 AM

Americans don't like President Bush personally much anymore, either


WASHINGTON - It's not just the way he's doing his job. Americans apparently don't like President Bush personally much anymore, either.

A drop in his personal popularity, as measured by several public polls, has shadowed the decline in Bush's job-approval ratings and weakened his political armor when he and his party need it most.

Posted by: raker13 [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 21, 2006 01:06 AM

Master,

So, if the GOP will just kindly commit suicide, it would get on ok?

Geesh!

Posted by: Mark Noonan [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 21, 2006 04:15 AM

Axis and Raker,

I know that disliking President Bush is a very important part of your day, but most Americans don't think - plus or minus - of him on a day to day basis.

It will be how people are feeling themselves and their prospects which will drive the 2006 mid terms...you've got to convince the broad mass of Americans - most of whom are wealthier than they've ever been - that things are personally terrible for them...lotsa luck on that...

Posted by: Mark Noonan [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 21, 2006 04:18 AM

You don't think that it could have anything to do with that dumb interview he did the other day on hardball where he started giggling and laughing when talking about the war and how it had broght down his popularity do you?

"Americans are just unsettled". This guy still thinks everyone loves him and its just the war that they are down on him about. They love his lies, incompetantness, ignorance, shortsightness, fascist policies and that deer in the headlights look he gets on his face when Karl Rove is not telling him wha to say over his earpiece.

Maybe thats how he gets thru his day, Rove. Whispering in his earpiece. "People love you George" "You're a Great President" "Its just the war George, not you." "Lie to them George." "Cover this up George."

I think I get it finally. These are the voices that George hears and talks about hearing. He doesn't know its Karl, Karl told him its a magic radio that will allow him to communicate with God. That explains Georges assertation that God speaks to him and told him to invade Iraq.

"GEORGE... THIS IS GOD SPEAKING. IT'S TIME TO BOMB SADDAM...IT'S TIME TO BOMB SADDAM GEORGE."


"WASHINGTON - It's not just the way he's doing his job. Americans apparently don't like President Bush personally much anymore, either.

A drop in his personal popularity, as measured by several public polls, has shadowed the decline in Bush's job-approval ratings and weakened his political armor when he and his party need it most. "

Posted by: axis [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 21, 2006 08:31 AM

I agree Mark. Not with Survivor and American Idol on the tube. But then they turn on the news and see hes spying on them, infringing on their rights, and that darn Osama that George gave looking for after 6 months keeps making them tapes and it only reminds them "Why the hell hasn't caught this arsehole?"

Then they pay off their credit card bill and get their bank accounts frozen by homeland security for a few days while they "check 'em out"

George is his own worst enemy and the GOP is digging their own graves by following him right down the tubes. If GOP suddenly cuts their losses and investigates, provides proper oversight over this president , then at least come November they would have a chance at looking like they are at least half way doing the jobs that they should be doing. GOP popularity went up after they turfed Nixon out because they at least looked like Americans that were intolerant of a president that did not respect the law or the constitution.

But alas, this congress is hopelessly lost in the fog and will continue the steady as she goes approach until the run up onto the rocks come November. Then they will wonder what the hell happened and how could it have come to this because they are lost without any moral compasses


I know that disliking President Bush is a very important part of your day, but most Americans don't think - plus or minus - of him on a day to day basis.

Posted by: axis [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 21, 2006 08:43 AM

Mark

You're doing a fantastic job getting the truth out, and reading many of these responses it seems to have got "the other side" all worked up. Reminds me of the Jack Nicholson line in "A Few Good Men" - "You can't stand the truth!!!" They sound as if they're dreading another defeat in November!! The raging has begun already or has it ever stopped?!?!?! Keep up the good work!!!!

Posted by: Bill at May 21, 2006 02:24 PM

I know you're not interested in the international picture, but Bush is unpopular world-wide. Hence the mass anti-American demonstrations anytime he or Condi leave the country. Is the whole world delusional because they can't appreciate American altruism? What could be the problem with wanting to free foreigners from viscious tyrants???

Posted by: kritter at May 21, 2006 04:46 PM

Are you willing to put money down that you at the very least lose the house in November? I am. I am also willing to put money down that when proper oversight and investigations are done, it will reveal a level of corruption, illegal activities and dishonesty that will be unprecedented in American History. I am also willing to put money down that the investigations will lead to some of the administration being put in prison for their conduct and illegal acts as well.

We WANT THE TRUTH. No more lies and deception from the "Decider" If he broke the law, impeach him. If he profitted illegally off the war, send him to prison. If he illegally spyied on americans, send him to prison. If he committed an act of treason by revealing classified information, strap his fake texan ass to a gurney and sentence him to the same fate and he did for all those he executed while governor of texas. If he was involved in 9/11 or was complicit in not preventing it when he could have, send him to Abu Ghraib for life.

If he tortured prisoners, try his ass in the hague for war crimes. If he illegally started a war that resulted in hundreds of thousands of dead, try his ass for war crimes in the hague. Try cheny, Rumsfeld, Rove, Libby and Rice at the same time as they are all guilty.

The GOP has a lot to hide, they have done a lot of illegally and corrupt things and they have everything to lose if oversight is conducted or investgations begun. If that happens, even you radicals are going to be shocked and will want to disassociate yourselves from him completely

" "You can't stand the truth!!!" They sound as if they're dreading another defeat in November!!"

Posted by: axis [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 21, 2006 06:42 PM

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