High gold prices usually indicate economic uncertainty and inflation. So, I'm not sure that's much to crow about. I do like the way the market has gone up, but also that can be an indicator of inflation. It's too early to call.

Matt,

My econ is a little rusty, but gold goes up when investors are bearish on the future prospects of the economy - in this case a weak dollar, high gas prices, and continued war in Iraq. This isn't really something to cheer about (unless your cashing out your gold at a profit now).

Yes, and from what I understand gold has been consistently going up for quite some time now with the market doing extraordinarily well. that being said, I was more interested in the tax revenues from last month, but didn't have an opportunity to write in detail about it at the time. feds also raised rates and the dollar rose...

Oh come on now, we all know that the progressive tax system isn't about making money for the Feds. It's about punishing those who "earn too much." (Whatever that means) It's to stick it to the "rich" and let the little guy have a free ride. Even though there's no such thing as a free ride.

Maybe there's a connection, ya think? Let me rephrase the question... when the market's about to tank, for whatever reason, what happens?

C'mon guys, this confluence of information isn't exactly good news: traditionally, when precious metals prices peak the market is ready to fall. Other factors come into play, of course, but that's something to be considered -- very seriously.

As far as April tax revenues go, when the market is going up, what do you expect? Those taxpayers which are not significantly beholden to a W-2 (in which case, your taxes are taken out for you), then your penalty for not pre-paying taxes that would otherwise be due on the basis of last year's taxes is... zero. So if you know your revenue is going up, why NOT wait until April? Under the present circumstances, the numbers make perfect sense. But they are also rather ominous. According to the referenced article, the April 2006 tax revenues... "marked the largest one-month receipt total since the government collected $332 billion in revenue in April 2001, reflecting a boom in capital gains from stock investors lucky enough to cash out their investments before the bursting of the stock market bubble in early 2000."

So I guess the question is, do you see the handwriting on the wall?

Then again, I've been wrong before. More imporantly, I hope no one considers me their personal financial analyst. But it seems to me these are very important questions. Does anyone want to argue with me? If so, my guess is you have 4 - 6 months, +/- 3 months before the reality hits, whatever it is.

Does anyone want to argue with me? If so, my guess is you have 4 - 6 months, +/- 3 months before the reality hits, whatever it is.

Rico, I follow the financial markets pretty close, and there are very few experts that are predicting a market collapse. The profit fundamentals are just too strong. Of course, like you, I've been wrong before.

The price of gold has been going up for several years. I got in back in, IIRC, 2000 or 2001 at around $250/oz., traded in an out for a couple years, making some pretty good profits (doubled my money in 2 years). The volitility of gold is not for the faint of heart, and I bailed for good in 2003 when it got to $350.00 (half what it is now).

I hope no one considers me their personal financial analyst. DITTO.

A couple things...

I guess it's ironic that the day after you posted this, there was a huge selloff on wall street. Now the market is doing somewhat dismally.

That happened because The Fed lowered interest rates too far (shortly after 9/11, that also lead to the housing bubble), causing inflation to run rampant. The defecit spending has also caused inflation to go crazy; it has also caused the power of the dollar to go lower. Then, in an effort to styme inflation, the fed raised interest rates close upwards 15 consecutive times. When there were hopes that the fed would stop, the market rallied, but when it raised interest rates even more, there was a huge selloff, and now the market is reeling.

Also, don't be so happy about your story about the tax revenues story that you linked, those numbers don't adjust for inflation. Real revenues are actually down somewhat.

Also, about the "spendthrift" republicans. You are aware that spending has ballooned 42% under Bush, right? Prodigal would be a better adjective.