Matt, who cares? Quit tryin' to 'spin the impossible spin.' Bush is over. The real question for all of us is, what now?

Who cares?
Well, only anyone working, making a living, anyone with retirement plans, anyone with a family, anyone that contributes. Just the people that want Americans to succeed have a better life everyday.
Most of us want the value of the economy to improve; you democrats depend on misery and failure to mark success. Striking contrast, wouldn't you say?

what typical lib!!! blame Bush for a bad economy, then when the economy booms as a result of his policies they pretend the economy isn't important anymore....

Rat, what I meant was who cares about Bush. We all care about the economy more than apologizing for Bush's poor stewardship of it. And yes, I do think it's been poor as do many others much more versed in the real picture than I am and probably you are.

By the way wingnuts, you're not watching the real ball, inflation. I'm not talking about dem v rep I'm talking about you and me. since 2000, we've averaged around 3% inflation as stated by BLS. As you know, these numbers have been fudged for years to the point of non-meaning. The real inflation is approximately 3-4% higher. So even if you use the BLS#, the real value of the DOW is 9910(2000 dollars), 16% less than you thought. If you use the real # you get about 7800, 40% less. Funny how that tracks the value of the dollar in the world currency market. We're being eaten alive and don't have the sense to know it.

The Bush economic policies are directly responsible for the booming economy.

Current inflation is 3.36%, it was 3.71% when Bush took office, Next!

Darn Matt you scared me. I thought that number was the death total in Iraq when I first saw it. Hey anything that boosts my 401k is fine with me. Just wonder how high it would be with Clinton in office?
Or if our image in the world was a shade above Dante-esque level.

The left is getting REALLY dizzy from all their spinning of the good economic news...

how high would it be if clinton was still in office? probably lower than it was after 9/11 since clinton would have raised taxes

Bane,

The fact is that they've changed the way inflation is calculated. This started during Kennedy/Johnson and continued through today with each president adding just a little more. If you were to calculate CPI using pre-Clinton methodology, you would get an additional 3%. So, in reality the 3.36 is really 6.36%. Make you feel better?

The nature of these changes is subtle but tends to add up over time. For example, the unemployment used to include those out of work for long periods. Then they became a footnote called "discouraged workers." Now you don't see then at all in the stats. This means that basically, the unemployment numbers represent only those who are recieving UC checks. That is why the unemployment is 4.7 instead of the true number of about 12.5%.

One of my favorite changes is to the CPI. My buddy Greenspan came up with this one and it happened during the Clinton years. They call it hedonics. How this works is that they used to calculate CPI based on a fixed basket of goods over time. You know, milk steak, etc. Greenspan had the bright idea that when steak got too expensive, people started buying hamburger. So, they didn't have to discount the price steak went up. They just did a substitution. No harm, no foul.

Now we have a new CPI, the C-CPI-U, that runs about 1/2% lower than that. Bottom line is that true inflation is what the BLS says +3.3%. Again, feeling better?

Now for those of us who've been in the working world for 20-30+ years, it's very easy to see what this does. First, there's pressure to have multiple incomes. Then it's required. Next? I suppose many will need their kids to help support the family. Anyone who's been in the workforce for a while knows this. I can remember grown men working at the local grocery store being able to save and buy a house, support a family and pay for college. Can you do that now? Think about what you paid for college and what it is today. I went in the early 80's. My tuition was $500/semester at a state school. Now it's 3300. That's a factor of 6.6. Too bad inflation says it should only be about 2 times or about 1100/semester. How about medical, housing, really everything that requires Americans to do. Think plumber, electrician, car mechanic etc. In 1985 I had a $2 copay for drugs, now $25 plus, I now have to kick in about $3500/yr for the plan. The same plan I had then. A base model 1969 Mustang v6 hardtop cost $2700. Now it’s $20k. Inflation says it should only be $14.5k. Yea, I know, “ but they’re better, more technology etc.” Now you see what hedonics does for you. The truth is that through enormous manufacturing efficiency and productivity gains it should actually cost less than that.

Like I said before, inflation is eating us alive and since it’s slow, we don’t see it. But it’s there. You feel it over time. Good luck feeling happy about your 40% loss over the last five years. I just can’t seem to.

Hey that is great, after five years we are back where we started, and George only had spend $2-trillion (of money he didn't have) to do it.

I work with BLS statistics pretty often and this sort of thing sounds pretty plausible but is, as is the constant refrain of the Anti's, "cherry picked"... the rottenest cherries you can find. One example:
"the unemployment used to include those out of work for long periods. Then they became a footnote called "discouraged workers." Now you don't see then at all in the stats. This means that basically, the unemployment numbers represent only those who are recieving UC checks. That is why the unemployment is 4.7 instead of the true number of about 12.5%."
Shwuh? So how do we have the largest workforce ever and also the highest rate of workforce participation ever? How are disposable incomes at all time highs if inflation is draining our pockets? Well, the hard economic numbers have profound and damn near immutable electoral effects. So we shall see what the judgement of the electorate is, yet again in a few months and then again in two years.

P.S.

Bane, Before you get started calling me names and avoiding the point, it's not a Bush thing, it's a government thing. It's been happening for years. There is only one real answer, term limits and publically funded campaigns.

Oh, BTW, don't forget the single most damaging event in American history - when Nixon decoupled the dollar from gold. Just look at inflation before (avg

Cheers

This means that basically, the unemployment numbers represent only those who are recieving UC checks. That is why the unemployment is 4.7 instead of the true number of about 12.5%.

If you want to make this claim, then you'd also have to admit that the unemployment rate during the Clinton years was also bogus... During the dotcom bubble, lots of people thought they were making money on the internet, but really weren't...

i love how libs cite the unemployment rate during the clinton years as proof the economy was good then, but the unemployment rate under Bush is bogus...

3more wrote, “ ..unemployment numbers represent only those who are recieving (sic)UC checks.”
No sir, unemployment numbers are never calculated on unemployment compensation numbers. Each State has different methods for awarding UI checks, the BLS uses household surveys for the unemployment numbers, always has. What changed is that in the 1980’s military employment was added to the total employed resulting in a larger workforce number.

Your thesis also ignores that real wages exceed the inflation rate, resulting in easier accessibility to “steak” dinners. Tuition calculations are based on the sponsorship payments and supplemental income. At the University of California, as an example, the bulk of the money received is from research grants, next is State funding, ancillary income, and then student’s tuition. As one source is reduced, others must make up the difference. Tuition is one part of inflation, not the whole picture, computers have remained constant in price, but the technology has improved so dramatically that the $1,000 computer would have been considered a super computer 5 years ago.

I’ve already disproved your 40% number in another thread. The valuation of the dollar against the Euro hit its high when oil was $12/barrel, and dropped to its lows as oil reached $60-$70/barrel. China artificially floats the dollar to make it unattractive to Chinese consumers. Consumer goods marketed in the US have virtually the same valuation as they did 5 years ago. When we reach the double digit inflation Carter gave us; then I’ll panic. For now, inflation is under control and my investments continue to be bullet proof.

Wow, 3my, your life really sucks. Why don't you just go jump off a bridge and end the suffering.

Seriously, I just can't relate to anything you wrote. We're thinking about replacing my wife's 1997 Toyota Camry (which we bought new for around $22,000) with a new 2007 Camry (sticker price around $22,000 equipped the same way).

Our retirement funds are invested in a mix of 12 different mutual funds including small caps, mid caps, emerging markets, international and commodities as well as a couple balanced and income funds. Even with the market collapse in 2000, we've averaged 14% a year since 1998. We're up 12% since January 1st.

Two years ago my prescription drug co-pay was $25. Since my Navy Reserve pension kicked in a year and a half ago, it's now $3.00 for generic and $9.00 for name-brand.

I live in a rural area of northeastern Indiana in a 4,000 square foot house on 3 wooded acres (that cost around $260,000 to build in 1997) with a stocked pond in my back yard where I often walk down and catch my dinner for free.

I'm a self-employed manufacturers' rep, and my business is just humming along, much like the overall economy.

Like I said, 3my, I just can't relate to whiners like you.

Barney,
Just because your mom's basement hasn't been painted in 5 years doesn't mean the rest of us haven't had significant improvement in our lifestyles.
More Champaign, my dear?

Who cares?

But, but, but, but, but the tax cuts were going to devestate the economy the left told us.

The tax cuts would impoverish the nation.

If the left was so wrong about that, why on earth would I trust them to be right on anything else?

meg,

to quote Mcgovern, that's a non sequitur and since you didn't address any of my points I will assume you do not dispute them. Disposable income is measured in dollors not purchasing power. Yea, you've got more dollars but they aren't worth nearly as much as you think. Also, you're wrong about the participation rate. It's been going down.

Also last post cut off - (avg inflation 1800-1971

Mega and KCJ,
The unemployment lie is one the left brings out every time they don't like the numbers. They claim that when someone runs out of unemployment checks they aren’t counted. They claim that when someone “gives up” they aren’t counted. Wrong, they’re counted as eligible workers, there is a footnote as 3more points out, but they are counted as unemployed. Who isn’t counted? My retired mother isn’t counted, my adult child in college isn’t counted, and my disabled cousin isn’t counted. Business owners that don’t show up at their offices are counted, and people who work more than one job are counted once!These are not in the workforce.

Once more for clarity; the BLS uses a household survey not unemployment checks as the gauge for the unemployment numbers.

3,
Do you ever get tired of being wrong?
Disposable income is statistically used to determine buying power.

To quote McGovern, “I am 1,000 percent for Tom Eagleton and I have no intention of dropping him from the ticket.”

3more,
Publicly funded campaigns lower inflation? Why am I bothering to try to educate you? This is far-left lib-speak for, "My candidate is so Looney that no-one in their right mind would give this loser a dime, so everyone should be required to pay to put this train-wreck on TV"

Ugh, you guys are really tiresome. Let’s start from the top:

KCJ: please see above. Also note the comments about the Clinton adjustments to CPI.

Bane: Ugh again. I didn’t say they were based on the UC checks, I said that it basically represents that.

Real wages are not exceeding inflation. They are at best keeping pace with stated inflation and as mentioned that’s not the real measure.

I would certainly agree that some technology oriented products are much cheaper but you have to look at the aggregate across all products and expenses.

Spook:

I’ve said this before, my life doesn’t suck. I’m in the upper 5% of income with assets well into the 7 figures. Yes, I too have funds and investments that are doing well. Regarding the car, I believe you have to look longer and couple that with the increased discounts companies are offering just to offload capacity. You also need to look at more than one product, I know I just mentioned one and if you like I can refer you to some more complete analysis that covers everything from food to energy to clothing etc.

Regarding drugs and medical. I’m happy you’re on the government dole now. Before you say “I earned it” you should realize that for people like me (47yo) we will never get to see our SS or MC. We’re spending it all on you guys, there won’t be anything left. I fugure uncle sam has 400k-500k of my money to this point and I don’t expect to see a penny so pardon my sarcasm.

Glad you like your house. What would it cost to replace it today. Thought so. How are mine/your kids/grandkids going to deal with that?

I guess I’m what you guys call a liberal elitist, I don’t think so but that’s what I think you’d say. I’m a lot more concerned with the folks who don’t have it good, who don’t have 401k’s, pensions, covered medical and so on. I’m not whining, I’m complaining. Whining implies that I’m doing it for myself. Comperende?

Bane:

Already discussed. The change to the CPI and unemployment calculations is well documented. It’s just a fact. You may say it doesn’t matter but how is it that all the adjustments work for the benefit of the incumbent administration(D and R) and against the average Joe?

Disposable income, Yes, but if they underreport real inflation, then you lose. And what I get tired of is listening to people like you.

Term limits and public funding would remove most of the destructive influence of money from government. Then, perhaps, government would work for the people instead of the corporations. It’s just a thought although, with this much money in the game, it’ll never happen.

As one final note, Matt would you please ban my present IP from this blog. I no longer wish to participate but can’t seem to stop myself. My home IP is already banned, please add this one to your list also.

To all, have fun agreeing with yourselves and thinking that it’s the damn left who is to blame.

Thank you, and goodbye.

3 wrote,
“Real wages are not exceeding inflation” without any qualification, try looking it up.

"unemployment numbers represent only those who are recieving (sic) UC checks." then wrote, "I didn’t say they were based on the UC checks," this is how the liberal mind works, make a nebulous connection to a half-truth, then deny that it means what you clearly intended it to mean.

He goes on, "I figure uncle Sam has 400k-500k of my money to this point and I don’t expect to see a penny so pardon my sarcasm" I hope his investments are done by someone else; if he were a top wage earner since he was 17 the maximum he could put into Social Security is $165,000.

Liberals!

These left wing "talking points" are hilarious! good grief people... it sounds sooooo ridiculous. They obviously get posted on some web site... and then all the lefties run with it. It is obvious spin.

Bane said: "More Champaign, my dear?"

I think the line is, "More Madeira, my dear?" Lol!

But seriously, you seem to be a smart guy and plugged into to the economy and all, so what do you think? Where should a person place their investments? (Retired Spook, you can chime in here too if you want -- you seem to have beaten the odds) Back in 1998/99 I saw the handwriting on the wall and took almost all of my money out of the stock market and invested it in real estate. That's where I made my nestegg. Ya gotta love California real estate. But real estate doesn't look so good anymore. In fact, I've been readjusting for the last couple of years. But I don't know any more. It seems to me that with energy prices what they are, along with the the budget deficit/trade deficit/national debt trio, over-investing in the stock market is a risky proposition. Spook's diversification strategy is generally a good one. The question is really how to maximize one's diversity. What do you think? Precious metals? Euros? What?

We all care about the economy more than apologizing for Bush's poor stewardship of it.

Imagine where it would be if he weren't such a "poor steward." I guess the Dow would be at 25,000, and my real wages would be double what they are now. I call for immediate impeachment!

And you quote McGovern? Which one, George or Maureen? And you're a millionaire? With nothing better to do than post on a blog and act like a child? Who the hell are you, Patrick Kennedy? Ted Kennedy?

You're a phony, 3morequeers; that's what you are. A phony. And a liar.

Now take some of those millions, and sue me. Better yet, take some of those millions, and shove 'em up yer grommet...

The economy is rocking. Anyone who disagrees with that comment must be smoking crack.

(Retired Spook, you can chime in here too if you want -- you seem to have beaten the odds)

ricorun, I didn't always (beat the odds), but in the late 90's I seem to have finally gotten the hang of it. The Internet has helped immeasurably.

I have to take my elderly parents to a church dinner in a few minutes. I'll try to address your post later on tonight. You make some good points.

3 DON'T GO!! I have always appreciated your posts. I need the counterpoint provided by people like you. If I don't get it, I'll leave too. But if you really do leave, tell me where you're going. Tell me another location where people who aren't necessarily right, aren't necessarily left, can interact in a free (though if at times highly volatile) manner. I don't always believe things that I've heard here -- neither from the right or the left -- but every once in a while what I've heard here has caused me to reconsider things, sometimes dramatically. So if you find something better, please let me know.

Rico,
I’m not really the best one to ask, and here’s why;
As a fiscal analyst my primary function is looking backwards; I analyzing financial records to determine the viability of a concern. From that I build models to predict what happens next, then prepare budgets and financial documents to advise the State on the operations of the entity for which I work.

Regarding Euros; they look like a good investment; low debt, stable economies with low or non-existing yields (as a group, that is, individually they're chaotic at best), lots of participation, and the Euro countries consume more petroleum than the US. I’m staying out of the monetary markets until oil prices stabilize, or after the Iran war, or after the collapse of the EU.

In 1988 my brother asked my father about real estate, dad said, “Don’t buy property in Irvine; it’ll never be anything but the land next to the El Toro Marine Air Station.” Well, the air base is gone, and the home my brother bought for $120,000 is worth $1.25 million today. My brother is now my financial investments advisor.

I guess I’m saying that my predictions could be as bad as my dad’s, but if you ever want to know the history of the financials, I’m your guy.

"I analyzing"??? Sheesh, I sounding like a financial wizard, dint I?

3MoreYears,

I feel very sorry for you and the dem party, which is irrelevent. Keep forging those documents, blaming President Bush for the weather and actually believeing those biased polls created by the libs. You are living in an historic presidency, something to tell your grandchidren. No one cares about the dem party since they have no ideas and worse, no soul. I was once a dem and now have to take a shower, whenever I remember that. I could not be more proud of President George W. Bush, his brilliant leadership, especially after 9/11, keeping america safe, saving thousands in New Orleans after getting the brain dead lib mayor and governor to issue an evacuation, being steadfast in fighting the war against islamofascism and building the strongest economy this country has ever since, even after inheriting a recession from that sorry incompetent prior president. Aren't you even ashamed to be a dem. Keep fighting for bin ladens privacy rights. God bless President George W. Bush, the greatest president in american history.

Wall Street said today that the market got a big bounce upward because the economy is creating jobs at a slower pace then was projected. Money doesn't disaprear it moves around. The money that the new workers would have gotten if jobs had grown more, went into the pockets of stock investors instead. NOT long term investors like 401k's, rather to daily traders. Wealth should be earned not stolen from the unemployed. Peace

Rico,

Sorry, I got home a lot later than I thought I would. I would like to discuss the things you brought up in your comments. Perhaps email would be better than tying up a thread. Send an email request to Matt to release my email address to you.

The really humorous part about lefties spinning good news into bad is not only that they know they're spinning but that everyone knows they're spinning but have no choice but to go on. Like a weatherman predicting sunny skies in the middle of a rainstorm: he's reading off a teleprompter and hasn't brains enough to depart from the script even when he's soaking wet.

Thanks to the dems, instead of part of our social security in private accounts earning 10 percent per year, it is earning 1 percent. I guess dems hate Bush more than they love their children. Dems, thanks also for the $3 per gallon gas. We will all remember in November. We will also remember the way Judge Alito and his family were treated come November.

Spook,

I submitted a request to Matt. I filed it under the heading of "Hate Mail", just because I thought that was funny, lol! And though I'm very interested in what you have to say myself, I thought your insights might also be beneficial to the general community here as well. But anyway, I look forward to talking with you.

You knuckle heads are killing me. Let's see: We're up to our eyeballs in debt to china. Up to our eyeballs in debt to the UAE. We are the world's biggest debtor. If any of these countries finally pull the plug on our debt, our paper is worthless. So (in the real world fella's) we are held hostage at this time. We are scared ****less about the coming Iranian oil bourse. So...let's look at this: China is rich...real rich. Russia is so rich all of a sudden from the enormous gas and oil they posess they do not know how to spend all the money right now. If can turn off Fox news just once in while you will see the value of our dollar is dropping fast with a slim, slim chance of survial.
Gold is booming. The U.S. just stopped reporting the E3 data. STOPPED. The entire Iraq debacle (in the real world it is a debacle)is put on a credit card. Our debt is literally killing us. Our economy is booming? Fella's the house of cards is really starting to crumble. If your smart, you should be investing in gold and bullets right now. Then and only then will you be secure. We are trillions in debt. Trillions. Comprende? Get a grip. Spit out the Kool-aid. Yeesh!

Wait! I may git a hunnert dollars! Alrighty then. Ah feel better now don't cha know. Yeesh, maroons.

Anybody here who takes raker seriously must go to the same elementary school as Baloney2000. This child--raker13--writes at a third-grade level, and parrots talking points. An original post by raker13 would read as follows:

*crickets chirping*

I can't help but read some of the leftist spin in stunned silence. Since 2001 real wages has far outpaced inflation and for those who are stock market challenged the Dow was at 10,500 on January 20th 2001 which means it's 8.5% above that level now.

Keefer

Most of these liberals are like a lot of other liberals. Typically very young, idealistic who have never spent a real day in the real world. Or they are are unsuccessful in life and therefore want everyone else to prop them up.

The exceptions are the limosine liberals who have more money then they know what to do with and therefore also have no true reality to what the everyday middle class guy does...so they think since they can afford to give away thousands of dollars (or more) to support their pet projects, then everyone else should too.

As Winston Churchill said...

"If you're not a liberal when you're 25, you have no heart. If you're not a conservative by the time you're 35, you have no brain."